Oil prices stirred upward on a Wednesday morning, lifting themselves a little from two-month lows, as the old tension between the wish for calm and the reality of danger played out again on the water. Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were struck for taking routes their attackers had not approved, while in Washington and Tehran there were faint signs that both capitals might step back from open confrontation. Traders, who must price the future in barrels and dollars, are holding both stories at once, and the value of crude now rests on whether the narrow sea lane can be trusted again.
Oil Rebounds From Two-Month Low as Hormuz Tanker Attacks Undercut Iran Truce Hopes
Three tankers were reportedly struck over the weekend for using unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, with at least one vessel ablaze; casualties are not reported.
Attacks have not slowed.
Mark
Prices barely moved, under 1%. Why does this matter?
Mimi
Because of what they bounced from. Two sessions at the weakest closes since Aug. 31, and the rebound came because tankers were hit over the weekend while diplomats talked.
Luke
Worth noting the gain is small and measured at 0119 GMT, early trading. Tuesday's figures are settlements. It's not a confirmed close.
Mark
What is holding a floor under prices?
Mimi
Risk. The Washington Institute counted 37 attacks in October, the most in a month since the conflict began, and 10 so far in November. Insurers and shipowners face costs even if a deal comes.
Luke
Those counts come from one think tank. And the weekend strikes are attributed: Iranian state media said the tankers used unauthorized routes, and the Guards said mines did it. Reuters verified footage of one burning Navig8 vessel, not the full account.
Mark
Is there a de-escalation signal at all?
Mimi
Trump said he'd hold off on strikes, and Rubio said the blockade is working. But Rezaei said no talks are under way.
Luke
So the optimism rests on one side's statements. No negotiations have been confirmed.
Mark
And supply?
Mimi
Hormuz transits are at their highest since February, OPEC output is up, and API figures show a 9.8 million barrel U.S. draw.
Luke
That API number is preliminary, from market sources. Official data was still due. Whether the Fed hikes in December is also just a bet.
El Pulso
- Brent climbed 0.78% to $92.20 and WTI to $86.53, a modest bounce after two sessions at their weakest closes since August 31.
- Three tankers were reportedly struck for using unauthorized Hormuz routes, one vessel burning off Oman while mines are feared in the shipping lanes.
- Trump has held off new strikes and Rubio says sanctions and the naval blockade are working, but Tehran says no talks with Washington are underway.
- Ships keep coming under fire, with 37 vessels attacked in October and 10 more in November, so the Hormuz risk premium remains stubbornly in prices.
- Mine clearance, insurance costs and a possible December Fed hike will decide whether the market's fragile hope for calm turns into lasting relief.
Oil prices stirred upward on a Wednesday morning, lifting themselves a little from two-month lows, as the old tension between the wish for calm and the reality of danger played out again on the water. Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were struck for taking routes their attackers had not approved, while in Washington and Tehran there were faint signs that both capitals might step back from open confrontation. Traders, who must price the future in barrels and dollars, are holding both stories at once, and the value of crude now rests on whether the narrow sea lane can be trusted again.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering a little ground after touching two-month lows. Brent crude for January delivery rose to $92.20 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate reached $86.53, after a Tuesday selloff had pushed both benchmarks to their weakest close since August 31. The fall had come as U.S. officials played down the need for further strikes on Iran, though Iran's top security official then said no negotiations with Washington were under way.
The market is caught between two stories. President Trump has signaled restraint after appeals from regional leaders, and Secretary of State Rubio argues that sanctions and the naval blockade are already producing results. Yet the danger at sea has not eased. Three tankers were reportedly struck over the weekend for using unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one burning off the coast of Oman, and no casualties have been reported. Analysts at LSEG warn that even with a deal, traffic would depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and the willingness of shipowners to accept risk.
At home, voters handed Democrats solid majorities in Congress over rising living costs, and inflation data strengthened bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Supply signals are mixed, with Hormuz transits at their highest since the conflict began and a sharp fall in U.S. crude stockpiles. For traders, the question is whether the Hormuz risk premium holds, and prices are likely to keep swinging on every headline from Washington, Tehran and the Gulf.
Oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday, recovering a little ground after touching two-month lows, as new attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz collided with signs that Washington and Tehran may be stepping back from confrontation. By 0119 GMT, Brent crude for January delivery had risen 71 cents, or 0.78%, to $92.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 49 cents, or 0.57%, to $86.53.
The bounce followed a Tuesday selloff that left both benchmarks at their weakest close since Aug. 31, for the second session running. Brent settled at $91.49, down 1.2%, and WTI at $86.04, down 0.9%. Crude had at one point fallen more than $3 a barrel, with Brent briefly dipping below $90, after U.S. officials played down the need for further strikes on Iran. Part of that loss was regained when Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top security official, told the pro-Iran broadcaster Al-Mayadeen that no negotiations with Washington were currently under way.
The market has been pulled between two stories. In one, President Donald Trump has signaled restraint, saying this week he would hold off on new military strikes after appeals from regional governments, including Qatar's prime minister during talks at the White House. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Group of Seven foreign ministers' meeting in Paris that sanctions and the naval blockade are producing results, so major combat operations are not needed to reach U.S. goals.
In the other, the danger to ships has not eased. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters in October, the highest monthly figure since the conflict began, and another 10 attacks so far in November. Over the weekend, Iranian state broadcasting said three tankers were hit for using "unauthorized routes." Footage verified by Reuters showed a Navig8 vessel burning off the coast of Oman. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a separate strike northeast of Oman's Lima, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after striking naval mines on the unauthorized route. No casualties have been reported.
LSEG analysts, in a Nov. 10 note, said that even with a deal, more flows through the waterway would depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether shipowners would accept the risk. "Meanwhile, attacks have not slowed," they wrote.
Politics at home has shifted too. In last week's midterm elections, voters gave Democrats solid majorities in both chambers of Congress, a result widely read as a rebuke over living costs driven by tariffs and by higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Analysts at KCM Trade said the market is still focused on Trump's more conciliatory tone since the vote. On Tuesday evening, an effort in the House to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the war failed.
Supply signals are mixed. Tanker and gas transits through Hormuz are at their highest since the conflict began in February, and a survey showed OPEC output rising. Industry figures from the American Petroleum Institute, cited by market sources, showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 9.8 million barrels in the week to Nov. 6, far more than the 1.0 million-barrel draw expected; official government data is due later Wednesday. Russian refining capacity has been cut by roughly 30% since late October after renewed Ukrainian drone strikes, industry sources said. Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first peace talks since February, though they remain far apart, and any deal easing sanctions could eventually return more Russian barrels to the market.
Macro pressure leans the other way. U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in October, strengthening bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by half a point in December. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects world petroleum consumption easing from a record 104.4 million barrels a day in 2025 to 102.4 million in 2026.
For traders, the question is whether the Hormuz risk premium holds. With diplomacy fragile and mines reportedly in the shipping lanes, expect prices to keep moving on each headline from Washington, Tehran or the Gulf.
Citas Notables
Even in the event a deal is struck, an increase in flows through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk.— LSEG analysts, Nov. 10 note
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