These workers have already endured weeks of fear. They must not be put in harm's way.
At the narrow throat of the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil passes between rival powers, violence has once again reminded humanity how fragile the arteries of modern civilization truly are. Brent crude surged nearly six percent to $114.44 a barrel as U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged strikes, threatening a ceasefire that had barely taken hold. Some 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on vessels caught between geopolitical ambitions they did not choose, while markets worldwide absorb the cost of a chokepoint under siege. The crisis speaks to an old and unresolved tension: how deeply the global economy depends on passages of peace that war can close in an afternoon.
- U.S. forces destroyed six Iranian boats after attacks on commercial vessels, while Iran reportedly struck the UAE with missiles and drones — each side contesting the other's account as oil markets absorbed the shock.
- Brent crude has now climbed more than fifty percent since fighting erupted in late February, reflecting a daily shortfall of 14.5 million barrels and a market pricing in the real possibility that the ceasefire collapses entirely.
- President Trump's 'Project Freedom' military escort initiative produced two crossings but has failed to reassure an industry burned by weeks of danger — labor leaders warn that an escort is not a guarantee, and that shipowners should not treat the announcement as a green light.
- Approximately 20,000 seafarers on 2,000 vessels remain stranded in or near the strait in what the International Maritime Organization calls an unprecedented humanitarian situation, with the UN warning of cascading damage to global food and energy supply chains.
- Even a ceasefire will not quickly unwind the crisis — mines must be cleared, infrastructure repaired, cargo backlogs resolved, and strategic reserves replenished, keeping analysts bullish on oil prices for months to come.
Oil prices surged nearly six percent to $114.44 a barrel on Monday as violence in the Strait of Hormuz threatened to collapse a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The U.S. military had just destroyed six Iranian boats following attacks on commercial vessels, while the UAE reported Iranian missile and drone strikes — claims an Iranian military source denied. The damage to market confidence, however, was immediate and severe.
The strait, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows, has been a flashpoint since fighting erupted in late February. Brent crude has climbed more than fifty percent over that period, reflecting an estimated daily shortfall of 14.5 million barrels. Prices eased slightly to $113.54 by Tuesday morning, but analysts warned the market was pricing in a darker scenario: prolonged infrastructure damage, a longer closure than officials had suggested, and the possible collapse of the ceasefire itself.
President Trump announced 'Project Freedom,' a military operation to escort commercial vessels through the waterway. Two U.S.-flagged ships crossed shortly after the announcement, but the broader shipping industry has held back. Stephen Cotton of the International Transport Workers' Federation told Al Jazeera that seafarers should not be sent through without a full guarantee of safety — including clarity on emergency evacuations and Iranian consent for transit. 'Until we have those assurances,' he said, 'we are calling on shipowners not to treat this as a green light.'
The human cost is immense. The International Maritime Organization estimates 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on roughly 2,000 vessels — a floating population enduring weeks of fear and confinement in what the organization called unprecedented in the modern era. The United Nations has warned the closure is choking not just oil and gas but fertilizer and other goods the global economy depends on.
Analysts expect the crisis to outlast any near-term diplomatic resolution. Cargo backlogs, mine-clearing operations, and infrastructure repairs will keep prices elevated for months. Singapore-based analyst June Goh predicted an even more bullish trend for Brent as strategic reserve drawdowns become visible in inventory reports. The market, in short, is not preparing for a quick recovery — it is preparing for a long one.
The price of oil jumped nearly six percent on Monday, climbing to $114.44 a barrel as violence in one of the world's most critical shipping lanes threatened to unravel a tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The surge reflected a market bracing for prolonged disruption: the U.S. military had just destroyed six Iranian boats in response to attacks on commercial vessels, while the United Arab Emirates reported coming under assault from Iranian missiles and drones. An Iranian military source denied the American account, calling it false, but the damage to confidence was already done.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes, has become a chokepoint for global energy supplies. Since fighting erupted in late February, Brent crude—the international benchmark—has climbed more than fifty percent, reflecting an estimated daily production shortfall of 14.5 million barrels. On Tuesday morning, prices eased slightly to $113.54, but the underlying anxiety remained. Analysts saw the market pricing in a grim calculus: more damaged infrastructure, a longer closure of the strait than the Trump administration had suggested, and the real possibility that the ceasefire could collapse entirely.
President Trump announced on Monday what he called "Project Freedom," a military operation to guide commercial vessels safely through the waterway. Two U.S.-flagged merchant ships did cross in the hours after the announcement. But shipping companies, burned by weeks of danger and uncertainty, have largely stayed away. The hesitation reflects a hard truth: a military escort is not the same as safety. Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the International Transport Workers' Federation, told Al Jazeera that seafarers should not be asked to cross without "a full guarantee of safety." He noted there was little clarity about how the operation would handle emergency evacuations or whether Iran would actually permit transit. "Until we have those assurances," he said, "we are calling on shipowners and flag states not to treat this announcement as a green light."
The human toll is staggering. According to the International Maritime Organization, approximately 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on roughly 2,000 vessels in or near the strait. The organization called it unprecedented in the modern era—a floating city of trapped workers enduring weeks of fear and confinement. The United Nations has warned that the closure is strangling the global economy, blocking not just oil and gas but fertilizer and other critical goods that the world depends on.
Even if Washington and Tehran reach a deal, the damage will linger. Analysts expect oil prices to stay elevated for months. Cargo backlogs will take time to clear. Regional infrastructure needs repair. Iranian mines must be swept from the waterway. June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta in Singapore, predicted prices would climb further as countries draw down their strategic reserves. "As more OECD inventory reports are published showing significant drawdown rates," she said, "we should see an even more bullish trend for the Brent price." The market, in other words, is preparing for a long crisis—one where the immediate military threat may ease but the economic consequences will persist.
Notable Quotes
Freedom of navigation must be restored in full accordance with international law, but it must be done in a way that is coordinated, transparent and puts seafarers' safety first.— Stephen Cotton, General Secretary of the International Transport Workers' Federation
As more OECD inventory reports are published showing significant drawdown rates, we should see an even more bullish trend for the Brent price.— June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta in Singapore
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does violence in one waterway move the entire world's oil market so dramatically?
Because the Strait of Hormuz is irreplaceable. About a fifth of global oil passes through it. There's no alternative route if it closes. So when fighting breaks out there, every refinery on Earth suddenly faces uncertainty about supply.
But couldn't countries just use their emergency reserves?
They could, and they are. But reserves are finite. If the strait stays closed for months, those stockpiles drain. That's what the analysts are watching—how fast countries are burning through what they've stored. Once those run low, prices have nowhere to go but up.
What about the people on those ships? Are they in immediate danger?
They're in a kind of suspended danger. They're not under direct fire, but they're trapped in a war zone with no clear exit. Twenty thousand people. Some have been there for weeks. They can't leave, they can't work, they're just waiting. And now there's this military escort program, but the shipping companies don't trust it enough to send more vessels.
Why wouldn't they trust a military escort?
Because militaries can't guarantee what happens if shooting starts again. An escort can protect you from pirates or minor threats, but if Iran and the U.S. go back to active conflict, a military presence might actually make you a target. The workers' union is saying: don't ask people to risk their lives on a promise that might not hold.
So the ceasefire is actually fragile?
Very. Every incident—a boat destroyed, a missile fired—reminds everyone that the underlying conflict hasn't been resolved. It's just paused. And markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. Bad news you can price in. Uncertainty keeps prices climbing.