On a Tuesday morning in late September, oil markets paused in place, with Brent near $66.56 a barrel and WTI around $62.29, even as war and tension pressed on from Gaza, Ukraine and NATO's eastern edge. The stillness says less about calm than about a tug-of-war: the prospect of tighter Russian supply pulls prices up, while fears of trade tariffs that could thin out demand pull them down. Markets, like people, sometimes hold their breath when the news arrives from too many directions at once. What comes next depends on whether the sanctions, the output shifts within OPEC+, and the demand fears
Oil Holds Steady as Traders Weigh Middle East, Russia Supply Risks and Tariff Worries
On a Tuesday morning in late September, oil markets paused in place, with Brent near $66.56 a barrel and WTI around $62.29, even as war and tension pressed on from Gaza, Ukraine and NATO's eastern edge. The stillness says less about calm than about a tug-of-war: the prospect of tighter Russian supply pulls prices up, while fears of trade tariffs that could thin out demand pull them down. Markets, like people, sometimes hold their breath when the news arrives from too many directions at once. What comes next depends on whether the sanctions, the output shifts within OPEC+, and the demand fears resolve in one direction or keep balancing each other.
By early Tuesday, Brent crude was almost exactly where it had closed, at $66.56 a barrel, and WTI was at $62.29. The market barely reacted to a day crowded with bad news from Gaza, where hospitals were going out of service as Israeli ground forces pushed deeper, and from the NATO border, where allies accused Russia of violating their airspace in Estonia and Poland.
The energy story ran alongside those headlines. Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries and export terminals with drones, and the European Union plans to ban Russian LNG imports a year earlier than first intended, as part of a 19th sanctions package pushed in part by U.S. President Donald Trump. Analysts said traders were digesting these moves rather than rushing to price them in.
What held prices back was the fear that tariffs could dampen fuel demand and cancel out the supply risks. Within OPEC and its partners, Saudi exports fell in July to a four-month low, while Iraq has been raising its shipments under the OPEC+ agreement. The coming sessions will show whether those supply signals and the EU timetable outweigh the worry about demand.
By 0041 GMT on Tuesday, September 23, Brent crude futures were sitting almost exactly where they had closed, at $66.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $62.29, up 2 cents. After a day of heavy news from Gaza, Ukraine and the borders of NATO, the market barely moved.
The backdrop was crowded. In Gaza, the health ministry said two hospitals in Gaza City had been put out of service by the escalation of Israel's ground offensive and by damage from continued Israeli bombing, as tanks advanced deeper into the territory. On Monday, dozens of world leaders gathered at the United Nations to embrace a Palestinian state, a diplomatic shift nearly two years into the Gaza war. The move faces fierce resistance from Israel and its close ally, the United States.
The Russian side of the ledger was just as busy. Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on Russian energy facilities over the past few weeks, hitting refineries and export terminals. The European Union, meanwhile, plans to ban Russian LNG imports into the bloc a year earlier than originally envisaged. That is part of a 19th package of sanctions against Moscow, and it follows pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump.
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes described the market's mood in a note, saying crude was relatively unchanged as traders digested the impact of the EU's efforts to restrict Russian supplies.
The military news added to the tension. At the United Nations on Monday, NATO allies accused Russia of violating the alliance's air space in Estonia and Poland. Britain said such actions risked triggering an armed conflict. Separately, Russia's defence ministry said its forces had taken control of the settlement of Kalynivske in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region.
Pulling the other way were worries about trade tariffs, which could dampen fuel demand and offset the supply risks. That tension helps explain why prices stayed flat rather than climbing on the headlines.
Two supply data points came from within OPEC and its partners. Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative, released Monday, showed Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in July fell to their lowest level in four months. Iraq, the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has increased its oil exports under an OPEC+ agreement, according to state oil marketer SOMO.
The next sessions will show whether the EU's sanctions timetable, Saudi export weakness and Iraq's higher shipments change what traders expect of supply, or whether tariff fears on the demand side keep holding prices in place.
Citazioni salienti
Crude oil was relatively unchanged as the market digested the impact of the EU's efforts to restrict Russian supplies.— Daniel Hynes, ANZ analyst
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