On a quiet Friday morning in Asia, the oil market paused after a week of violent swings, its prices still anchored to a conflict that has now run for nine months. The United States has signaled that it intends to keep its blockade of Iranian oil and trade rather than seek a negotiated end, and traders have weighed that reassurance against the continuing danger to tankers and Gulf facilities. Prices are heading for a second weekly loss, but the calm carries little conviction, as though the market is holding its breath for the next blow.
Oil Heads for Second Weekly Drop as Trump Keeps Iran Blockade in Place
"Priced to perfection" — but with little conviction behind it
Mark
Prices barely moved Friday. Why is this a story?
Mimi
Because of the weekly picture. Brent fell 16 per cent the week before and is heading for another 2.4 per cent drop. WTI dropped 13 per cent, then is set for 2.5 per cent more.
Mark
And Trump's statement is the trigger?
Mimi
Partly. He said a deal with Iran isn't necessary, which suggests the blockade and sanctions stay. Traders read that as lowering the odds of renewed large-scale fighting.
Luke
Careful, though. That's a reading of his post, not a policy document. The report says it "indicates" he'll stick with the blockade.
Mark
What about the tanker attacks?
Luke
Those are Iran's military's claims: four tankers hit by explosions after ignoring warnings. Reuters could not verify them. So that's attributed, not confirmed.
Mimi
The Houthi strikes on the Saudi pipeline station, Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh are also the Houthis' own account.
Mark
So what's pushing prices down besides the politics?
Mimi
US inventories. Crude rose 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million, when analysts expected a 1.1 million draw.
Luke
And the analyst's "priced to perfection" line is one broker's opinion. It tells us traders lack conviction, not where prices go next.
El Pulso
- Trump's declaration that no deal with Iran is needed has pushed Brent and WTI into a second straight weekly decline.
- Iranian claims that four tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz keep the threat to crude flows alive.
- Houthi attacks on a Saudi pumping station, a Red Sea oil facility and an Aramco building in Riyadh widen the zone of danger.
- A surprise rise of 4.7 million barrels in US crude inventories adds weight to the downward pressure on prices.
- Traders remain cautious, and the market is watching whether the blockade holds without a return to wider fighting.
On a quiet Friday morning in Asia, the oil market paused after a week of violent swings, its prices still anchored to a conflict that has now run for nine months. The United States has signaled that it intends to keep its blockade of Iranian oil and trade rather than seek a negotiated end, and traders have weighed that reassurance against the continuing danger to tankers and Gulf facilities. Prices are heading for a second weekly loss, but the calm carries little conviction, as though the market is holding its breath for the next blow.
Oil traders in Asia opened Friday, November 13, to a market that had barely moved. Brent stood near $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $88, both on course for a second weekly loss after a week of sharp swings. The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has now entered its ninth month, and the week's trading reflected hopes for a rapprochement, then fresh attacks that pulled prices back up.
The main push downward came from Washington. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war, which the market read as a sign that the blockade on Iranian oil shipments, trade and sanctions would continue. That reduced the fear of a large-scale fighting that could cut Middle East supplies, though the danger to shipping remained.
The risks have not disappeared. Iran's military said four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Reuters could not immediately verify. The Houthis, Iran-backed fighters in Yemen, said they had struck a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh. US data also weighed on prices, as crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, far from the drawdown analysts had expected.
Market voices were cautious. Chris Brankin of MiTrade said oil was priced to perfection, with little conviction behind the modest rebound. The open questions are whether the blockade holds without wider fighting, and whether more tankers or Saudi facilities come under attack.
Oil traders in Asia woke on Friday, November 13, to a market that had barely moved. By 0242 GMT, Brent futures stood at $95.41 a barrel, down a single cent, while West Texas Intermediate had slipped 20 cents, or 0.25 per cent, to $88.52. The small moves belied a week of sharp swings, and both benchmarks were on track for a second straight weekly loss.
The immediate push downward came from Washington. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to bring the war to an end. The message was read as a sign that the United States will keep its blockade on Iranian oil shipments and trade, along with its economic sanctions. For the market, that reduced the likelihood of renewed large-scale fighting that could choke off supplies from the Middle East, though attacks on shipping remain a danger. The war, waged by the US and Israel against Iran, is now in its ninth month.
Friday's softness erased two days of gains. Earlier in the week, hopes for a rapprochement had pulled prices one way, while strikes on Saudi Arabian infrastructure by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis and attacks on tankers carrying crude out of the Gulf pulled them the other. Even so, the weekly totals are down: Brent is heading for a 2.4 per cent decline this week after plunging 16 per cent the week before, and WTI is set to fall 2.5 per cent after dropping 13 per cent previously.
Chris Brankin, global advisor at the Melbourne-based brokerage MiTrade, said the two-week slide reflects a sound reading of the risks. "I think the oil market is priced to perfection at this point," he said. He added that prices have bounced back somewhat, but without much conviction from traders, a sign that they are watching developments in the Middle East closely.
The risks to supply have not gone away. On Thursday, Iran's military said four oil tankers had been hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings. The strait is the key waterway for crude exports from the region's main producers. Reuters could not immediately verify the Iranian accounts.
The same day, the Houthis said they had attacked three Saudi targets: a pumping station on the East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Red Sea city of Yanbu, and an Aramco building in the capital, Riyadh.
U.S. data added to the downward pressure. The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that crude and fuel inventories rose last week, driven by softer demand for refined products and a jump in oil imports. Crude stocks climbed by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels in the week ended November 6. A Reuters poll of analysts had expected a draw of 1.1 million barrels.
What to watch next is whether the blockade holds without a return to wider fighting, and whether more tankers in the Strait of Hormuz or more Saudi facilities come under attack.
Citas Notables
I think the oil market is priced to perfection at this point.— Chris Brankin, global advisor, MiTrade
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