On a quiet Friday morning in Asia, oil traded in a narrow band, yet the calm on the screens masked a week of violent swings in a conflict now in its ninth month. A presidential post declaring that no deal with Iran was needed signaled that the blockade on Iranian shipments would endure, and markets read in it a lower chance of a wider war that would choke Gulf supplies. Beneath the stillness lay a familiar human pattern: fear of scarcity and hope for peace trading places, with neither yet having the upper hand.
Oil Heads for Second Weekly Drop as Trump Holds Firm on Iran Blockade
On a quiet Friday morning in Asia, oil traded in a narrow band, yet the calm on the screens masked a week of violent swings in a conflict now in its ninth month. A presidential post declaring that no deal with Iran was needed signaled that the blockade on Iranian shipments would endure, and markets read in it a lower chance of a wider war that would choke Gulf supplies. Beneath the stillness lay a familiar human pattern: fear of scarcity and hope for peace trading places, with neither yet having the upper hand.
Oil traded in a narrow band on Friday morning in Asia, and the flat numbers hid a week of sharp swings. Brent sat near $95.41 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $88.52, both on track for a second straight weekly loss after steep drops in the weeks before.
The immediate trigger was a post by US President Donald Trump saying a deal with Iran was not needed to end the war. That signaled Washington would keep its blockade on Iranian oil and trade, and its sanctions, in place. Traders took it as a sign that the risk of a return to large-scale fighting was receding, though the war between the US and Israel and Iran, now in its ninth month, remains unresolved.
The pressure did not disappear. Iran's military said four tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi pipeline, refinery and Aramco targets. Neither claim could be immediately verified. Then US inventories rose unexpectedly, adding to the downward pull.
Chris Brankin of MiTrade called the market "priced to perfection," with little conviction behind the modest rebound. Attention now turns to shipping through Hormuz and any further strikes on Saudi facilities, against a blockade that is expected to stay in place.
Oil traded in a narrow band on Friday morning in Asia, and by the numbers it looked like a calm market. Brent futures were down 1 cent at $95.41 a barrel at 0242 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate had slipped 20 cents, or 0.25%, to $88.52. Underneath those flat readings sat a week of sharp swings, and a market heading for its second straight weekly loss.
The trigger for Friday's softness was a post by US President Donald Trump on Truth Social. He said a deal with Iran was not needed to end the war, which signaled that Washington intends to keep its blockade on Iranian oil shipments and trade, along with economic sanctions, in place. Traders read that as lowering the odds of a return to large-scale fighting that could disrupt supplies from the Middle East. The war between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other is now in its ninth month and remains unresolved.
The weekly figures show how far prices have moved. Brent was on course for a 2.4% decline this week, following a 16% plunge the week before. WTI was heading for a 2.5% drop after falling 13% in the previous week. Friday's small declines wiped out two days of gains, in a week when earlier hopes for a rapprochement were offset by attacks on Saudi infrastructure and on tankers carrying crude out of the Gulf.
Chris Brankin, global advisor at the Melbourne-based brokerage MiTrade, said the two-week slide reflects a fair reading of the risks. In his words, the oil market is "priced to perfection" at this point. He added that prices have bounced back somewhat but without much conviction from traders, which suggests they are watching events in the Middle East closely.
Those events kept supply risks alive. On Thursday, Iran's military said four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings. The strait is the key waterway for crude exports from the region's main producers. Reuters could not immediately verify the Iranian accounts.
The same day, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they had attacked three Saudi targets: a pumping station on the East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Red Sea city of Yanbu, and an Aramco building in the capital, Riyadh. These, too, were claims made by the group itself.
A third pressure came from the United States. The Energy Information Administration said Thursday that US crude and fuel inventories rose last week, driven by softer demand for refined products and a jump in oil imports. Crude stocks grew by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels in the week ended November 6. A Reuters poll of analysts had expected a draw of 1.1 million barrels.
The next signals to watch are shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and any further Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities, set against a blockade that Trump says will stay in place and rising US inventories that continue to weigh on prices.
Citações Notáveis
The oil market is priced to perfection at this point.— Chris Brankin, global advisor, MiTrade
A deal with Iran is not necessary to end the war.— US President Donald Trump, on Truth Social (as reported by Reuters)
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Leia o original em Reuters ↗