When nations exchange fire over contested waters, the world's energy markets feel the tremor almost instantly — not because oil has been lost yet, but because the possibility of loss is enough. This week, US-Iran military strikes on vessels in the Persian Gulf region reminded traders, once again, that the arteries of global commerce are never far from the reach of conflict. Crude prices climbed as hedge funds raised their bullish bets to levels unseen since May, a collective judgment that the risk ahead is real and the cost of being wrong is high.