A year after Raila Odinga's death, the political movement he spent decades forging is confronting what no election ever managed to deliver — its potential dissolution. ODM, once Kenya's most consequential opposition force, is fracturing from within as senior figures depart, rival factions emerge, and the 2027 elections draw near. What Raila's personal authority held together across regions and ethnicities, institutional structures alone cannot sustain, and Kenya watches to see whether a party built around one man can survive his absence.
ODM faces existential crisis a year after Raila's death amid defections and infighting
The tent collapses when the pole is gone
Mark
So ODM was the big tent—Raila held it together. What happens when the tent pole is gone?
Mimi
The tent collapses. You see it in the numbers. Sifuna's faction has 74 percent of ODM supporters, the official leadership has 20 percent. That's not a disagreement—that's a party that doesn't exist anymore except on paper.
Luke
But wait. Those are ODM supporters who were polled. How many actual members left? How many votes did Sifuna actually take with him?
Mimi
That's the thing—we don't know yet. The poll shows preference, not actual defection. But the departures are real. Sifuna, Owino, Orengo, Osotsi. These are people with constituencies.
Mark
And the leadership says they're still strong. Junet Mohamed said ODM is bigger than UDA.
Mimi
They have to say that. But look at what Wanga actually announced—they're not running a presidential candidate. They're supporting Ruto. That's not strength. That's accommodation.
Luke
Is that accommodation or pragmatism? If Raila had lived, would he have done the same thing?
Mimi
Nobody knows. He'd run for president five times and lost every time. The broad-based government with Ruto was already a shift. Whether he meant to go further—that died with him.
Mark
So Ruto loses a potential endorsement that could have delivered multiple regions.
Mimi
Exactly. Instead he gets Sifuna as a rival, polling second nationally. Ruto's re-election just got harder.
Luke
Or did it? If ODM fractures, maybe Ruto faces multiple weak opponents instead of one unified one. Has anyone modeled that?
Mimi
Not in what we have. But you're right—fragmentation could help him. We just don't know yet.
Mark
What does ODM need to survive?
Mimi
Strong institutions that don't depend on one person. A coherent ideology. Right now they have neither. They're a personality cult that lost its personality.
The Pulse
- ODM's decision to align with President Ruto's UDA rather than chart an independent course has been treated by its own senior figures as a betrayal — triggering a wave of high-profile exits that stripped the party of key organizers, networks, and voter loyalty.
- Edwin Sifuna's newly launched Equitable Party is already polling second nationally, while Babu Owino and James Orengo have moved to establish their own political vehicles, each carrying grassroots infrastructure that once powered Raila's electoral machine.
- A TIFA poll lays bare the rupture in stark numbers: 74 percent of ODM's own supporters back the breakaway Linda Mwananchi faction, while only 20 percent stand behind the official party leadership — a chasm the leadership's confident public statements cannot paper over.
- Political analysts warn that ODM's reach is rapidly contracting — Western Region, Nairobi, and Kisii are slipping away — leaving the party increasingly confined to its Luo Nyanza ethnic heartland and diminishing its leverage in future coalition negotiations.
- President Ruto, who had anticipated Raila's political machinery as a potential electoral asset, now faces the harder task of winning over a fragmented and leaderless support base, with rebellious ODM figures positioning themselves as alternative power brokers.
A year after Raila Odinga's death, the political movement he spent decades forging is confronting what no election ever managed to deliver — its potential dissolution. ODM, once Kenya's most consequential opposition force, is fracturing from within as senior figures depart, rival factions emerge, and the 2027 elections draw near. What Raila's personal authority held together across regions and ethnicities, institutional structures alone cannot sustain, and Kenya watches to see whether a party built around one man can survive his absence.
The Orange Democratic Movement is fracturing a year after Raila Odinga's death. What was once Kenya's most formidable opposition force now fights for survival, torn apart by defections and internal warfare as the 2027 general election approaches.
The crisis traces back to a single decision: ODM's leadership chose to align with President William Ruto's UDA government rather than mount an independent presidential challenge. That choice triggered a cascade of departures. Edwin Sifuna, the former secretary general, launched the Equitable Party, now polling second nationally. Babu Owino quit to form the Mwananchi Party. Siaya Governor James Orengo signaled a move to the Liberal Democratic Party. Each departure carried with it networks of grassroots organizers essential to Raila's electoral dominance.
The depth of the fracture became visible in a TIFA opinion poll from mid-2026. Among ODM's own supporters, the breakaway Linda Mwananchi faction commanded 74 percent support, while the official leadership's Linda Ground faction attracted only 20 percent — exposing a chasm between what party officials were saying and what the base actually believed.
Party leadership insists the organization remains strong, with Junet Mohamed dismissing rival parties as directionless and Gladys Wanga announcing ODM would contest every elective seat except the presidency. But analysts see a different picture. Outside Luo Nyanza and parts of the Coast, ODM's grip is slipping. Western Region, Nairobi, and Kisii are gone, analysts argue — the party contracting toward its ethnic heartland.
Raila's death has exposed a structural vulnerability his personal authority had long concealed. He commanded a network that transcended geography and ethnicity, built through decades of political struggle and personal relationships. Without him, ODM lacks the unifying force that held disparate constituencies together. Its institutional structures, it turns out, were never strong enough to survive the loss of his personality.
Unless ODM resolves its leadership crisis and the ideological divisions driving the exodus, the party risks losing its parliamentary strength and its ability to negotiate from a position of power. What was built through sweat and blood may be reduced to a regional outfit — and the party that shaped Kenyan politics for a generation now faces the possibility of irrelevance.
The Orange Democratic Movement, the political machine that Raila Odinga built over decades, is fracturing a year after his death. What was once Kenya's most formidable opposition force now finds itself fighting for survival, torn apart by defections, internal warfare, and the hemorrhaging of its traditional support base as the 2027 general election approaches.
The crisis centers on a single decision: ODM's leadership chose to align with President William Ruto's UDA government rather than mount an independent presidential challenge. That choice triggered a cascade of departures from the party's highest ranks. Edwin Sifuna, who served as ODM's secretary general, walked away and launched the Equitable Party, which opinion polls now place second in national popularity behind Ruto himself. Babu Owino, the Embakasi East MP, quit to form the Mwananchi Party and challenge Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja. Siaya Governor James Orengo signaled his intention to take over the Liberal Democratic Party. Godfrey Osotsi, the former deputy party leader, joined Sifuna's new outfit. Each departure carried with it networks of grassroots organizers and loyal voters that had been essential to Raila's electoral dominance.
The depth of the party's fracture became visible in a TIFA opinion poll conducted in mid-June 2026. The survey found that among ODM's own supporters, the Linda Mwananchi faction—associated with Sifuna, Orengo, and Owino—commanded 74 percent support. The official party leadership's Linda Ground faction, which backs the broad-based government arrangement with Ruto, attracted only 20 percent. The numbers exposed a chasm between what ODM's top officials were saying and what the party's base actually believed.
Party leadership insists the organization remains strong. National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed declared ODM bigger and more formidable than even Ruto's UDA, dismissing rival parties as directionless. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, who chairs the party, announced that ODM would field candidates for every elective position except the presidency, positioning the move as a show of strength. Yet political analysts see a different picture. Martin Andati, a political analyst, suggested that outside Luo Nyanza and parts of the Coast, ODM's grip on parliamentary and ward seats is slipping. Western Region is gone, he argued, with Sifuna's departure. Nairobi is gone. Kisii is gone. The party that once stretched its influence across multiple regions and ethnic communities is contracting toward its ethnic heartland.
Raila's death has exposed a structural vulnerability that his personal authority had masked for years. He commanded a political network that transcended geography and ethnicity—from Luo Nyanza through Western, the Coast, Nairobi, North Eastern, and Maasailand. That network was built through decades of political struggle and personal relationships. Without him, ODM lacks the unifying force that held these disparate constituencies together. The party's institutional structures, it turns out, were never strong enough to survive the loss of his personality.
The fragmentation also complicates President Ruto's political calculations. Before his death, Raila had entered into a broad-based government arrangement with Ruto, placing some of his allies in the Cabinet after the Gen Z protests forced a government reshuffle. Whether Raila intended to formalize that cooperation into an electoral coalition for 2027 remained unclear. But analysts widely expected that a man who had run for president five times unsuccessfully would step back from another campaign and potentially endorse Ruto's re-election. Such an endorsement would have handed the President access to Raila's vast political machinery and his loyal constituencies. Instead, Ruto now faces the task of winning over Raila's supporters without their longtime leader to broker the deal. The emergence of Sifuna and other rebellious ODM figures as alternative political forces has made that task considerably harder.
Unless ODM resolves its leadership crisis and the ideological divisions that triggered the exodus, analysts warn the party risks losing its parliamentary strength, its national influence, and its ability to negotiate from a position of power in future political coalitions. What was built through sweat and blood may be reduced to a regional outfit, confined to the areas where Raila's ethnic base remains dominant. The party that shaped Kenyan politics for a generation now faces the possibility of irrelevance.
Notable Quotes
ODM is still the biggest and strongest party in Kenya. Bigger than even UDA. We are strong and determined to remain so, unlike these other briefcase parties that have no direction.— Junet Mohamed, National Assembly Minority Leader
From the MCA, to the Woman Rep, MP, senator and governor, we will vote for ODM candidates. But we are supporting President Ruto because he has shown the willingness to work with us.— Gladys Wanga, ODM Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor
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Politics & Governance