The market isn't confirming his story about himself.
Pela primeira vez na história, o Dow Jones ultrapassou os 40.000 pontos — um marco silencioso que chega em meio ao ruído de uma eleição americana marcada por narrativas de colapso econômico. Enquanto Donald Trump descreve a economia como afundando em ruínas, os dados oficiais e independentes contam uma história diferente: desemprego abaixo de 4% por 27 meses consecutivos, inflação em queda e crescimento superior ao de outras nações ricas. Há momentos em que os números, por mais imperfeitos que sejam, resistem à força das palavras.
- Trump insiste que a economia americana está 'desmoronando em um esgoto de ruínas', mesmo enquanto o mercado de ações bate recordes históricos consecutivos.
- Para sustentar essa narrativa, teorias conspiratórias proliferam: o governo estaria fabricando dados positivos para beneficiar Biden, inclusive removendo o café do índice de inflação — uma afirmação simplesmente falsa.
- O mercado financeiro, que o próprio Trump usou por anos como seu placar pessoal de sucesso econômico, torna essas teorias cada vez mais difíceis de defender — pesquisas privadas e índices independentes confirmam os dados oficiais.
- Trump agora reinterpreta a alta das ações como aposta dos investidores em sua vitória, mas as pesquisas eleitorais mostram que sua vantagem evaporou — e o mercado continua subindo mesmo assim.
Na semana passada, o Dow Jones fechou acima de 40.000 pontos pela primeira vez na história. O marco chegou discretamente, ofuscado pelo barulho habitual da política americana. Mas em um país fraturado por teorias conspiratórias e raiva partidária, esse número merece ser dito com clareza: a bolsa está em alta, e isso contradiz tudo o que Donald Trump tem afirmado sobre o estado da economia.
Os dados reais contam uma história consistente. O desemprego permanece abaixo de 4% há 27 meses consecutivos — uma sequência não vista desde o início dos anos 1970. A inflação, que atingiu seu pico em 2022, caiu de forma expressiva. O crescimento econômico americano nos últimos quatro anos superou o de outras nações ricas. Esses números vêm de agências governamentais independentes e não estão escondidos de ninguém.
No entanto, Trump descreve a economia como 'desmoronando em um esgoto de ruínas'. Para quem está disposto a acreditar nisso, a explicação é que os próprios dados são falsos — fabricados pelo 'Estado profundo' para ajudar Biden na reeleição. Uma das versões chega a afirmar que o Bureau of Labor Statistics estaria escondendo a inflação ao remover o café do índice de preços ao consumidor. É simplesmente mentira.
O mercado financeiro oferece um contrapeso a essa paranoia. Pesquisas privadas do setor produtivo e índices independentes confirmam o que as estatísticas oficiais mostram: a inflação está cedendo, a economia se estabilizando. E a bolsa — que o próprio Trump sempre usou como seu marcador pessoal de sucesso econômico — não para de bater recordes.
Diante disso, Trump mudou o argumento: a alta das ações refletiria a aposta dos investidores no seu retorno ao poder. Mas a tese desmorona sozinha. Se os mercados estivessem apostando em Trump, venderiam ações agora — afinal, pesquisas recentes mostram que sua vantagem eleitoral desapareceu e suas odds em mercados de apostas caíram. As ações continuam subindo. O mercado, ao que parece, não está ouvindo a história que Trump conta sobre si mesmo.
Nada disso significa que o preço das ações seja uma boa medida do bem-estar econômico. O que importa de verdade são o emprego, a inflação e os salários reais — os fundamentos que estruturam a vida das pessoas comuns. Mas em um momento político em que um lado vende distopias econômicas sem qualquer relação com a realidade, vale registrar o fato simples e inegável: o mercado está em máximas históricas, e a economia não está em colapso, por mais alto que alguém grite o contrário.
Last week, the Dow Jones closed above 40,000 points for the first time in history. It was a milestone that arrived quietly, overshadowed by the usual noise of American politics. But in a country fractured by conspiracy theories and partisan rage, this number deserves to be said plainly: the stock market is soaring, and it contradicts everything Donald Trump has been saying about the state of the economy.
Stock prices are not a perfect measure of economic health—far from it. A rising market can mask real suffering, and a falling one can coincide with genuine strength. But they are a measure, and in the current moment, when one side of American politics is peddling a dystopian fantasy about the nation's economic collapse, the fact of 40,000 points on the Dow matters. It is harder to ignore than a conspiracy theory. It is harder to dismiss than a talking point.
The actual numbers tell a consistent story. Unemployment has stayed below 4 percent for 27 consecutive months—a streak not seen since early 1970. Inflation, which peaked in 2022, has fallen sharply, though it remains slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target by most measures. American economic growth over the past four years has outpaced that of other wealthy nations. These figures come from official government agencies: the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. They are not secret. They are not hidden.
Yet Trump describes the economy as "crumbling into a sewer of ruin." How do you reconcile such language with the data? The answer, for those inclined to believe it, is that the data itself is false. The deep state, the theory goes, has fabricated good numbers to help President Biden win reelection. As economic news has improved, these conspiracy theories have proliferated. There is the claim that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiding inflation by removing coffee from the Consumer Price Index—a claim that is simply untrue. There is the broader suspicion that the entire statistical apparatus has been corrupted.
But the stock market offers a check on this paranoia. Independent business surveys—purchasing managers' indices, private-sector data—tell the same story as the official statistics: inflation is declining, the economy is stabilizing. And the market itself, which Trump has long used as his personal scoreboard for economic success, is hitting record after record. The S&P 500 is at all-time highs. The Dow is at 40,000. It is difficult to square these facts with the claim that everything is falling apart.
Trump has now made a new argument: the rising stock market reflects investors betting on his return to power. In 2020, during his second debate with Biden, he predicted the market would crash if Biden won. It did not. Instead, stocks have climbed steadily under Biden's presidency. Rather than acknowledge the error, Trump has reframed the market's strength as evidence of confidence in his future victory. It is a claim that collapses under its own weight. If investors were truly betting on Trump, they would be selling stocks now—because recent polling shows his electoral advantage has evaporated. His lead in the popular vote has vanished. His odds in betting markets have fallen. Yet stocks keep rising. The market, it seems, is not listening to Trump's story about himself.
None of this should be taken as an argument that stock prices are a good measure of economic success. They are not. What matters is employment, inflation, and real wages—the fundamentals that give ordinary people their lives. The case for Biden's economic record rests on those foundations, not on the Dow. But in a political moment when one side is selling economic dystopias that bear no relation to reality, it is worth pointing out the simple, undeniable fact: the stock market is at record highs, and the economy is not collapsing, no matter how loudly anyone claims otherwise.
Notable Quotes
Trump describes the economy as 'crumbling into a sewer of ruin'— Donald Trump
Rather than acknowledge the error, Trump has reframed the market's strength as evidence of confidence in his future victory— Analysis of Trump's claims
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the stock market matter here if you've just said it's not a good measure of economic health?
Because it's harder to dismiss than a theory. A conspiracy about manipulated data requires faith. A 40,000 Dow requires explanation. And Trump himself made the market his scoreboard—he can't suddenly say it doesn't count.
But couldn't investors be betting on something other than Trump's return? Couldn't the market be rising for completely different reasons?
Of course. Markets are complex. But that's exactly the point—if Trump's claim were true, if investors really believed he'd win, the market would be reacting to his recent polling collapse. Instead, it's climbing. The market isn't confirming his story.
What about people who genuinely believe the economic data is fake? How do you reach someone who thinks the government is lying about unemployment?
You show them independent data—private surveys, business reports, things that don't come from government agencies. And you point to the market, which is driven by private investors with real money at stake. They're not going to bet billions on a fake economy.
Is there any way Trump's claims could actually be true? Could the economy really be collapsing while stocks soar?
Theoretically, yes—markets can disconnect from reality. But not for 27 months straight. Not while unemployment stays low and inflation falls. The disconnect would have to be total, and the conspiracy would have to be enormous.
What happens if Trump wins anyway, despite the market's apparent indifference?
Then his claim about investor confidence becomes even more absurd. He'll have won without the market's blessing, which means he can't claim the market was betting on him. He'll have to find a new story.