Northern Lights May Grace Northern U.S. States Thursday Night

The northern lights are expected to dip far enough south Thursday night to grace the skies above a swath of northern American states, according to forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The phenomenon will be visible across parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, and Michigan, with lower but still real chances in northern Montana, Washington, Idaho, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

The visibility hinges on what NOAA calls a Kp index reading of three on a nine-point scale. That number matters because it determines how far south from the North Pole the aurora can be seen. A Kp index of three means the lights will travel considerably farther south than they typically do, putting them within reach of observers across much of the northern tier of the continental United States. For those positioned in the right location, NOAA describes the display as "quite pleasing to look at."

The window for viewing is narrow and specific. The best time to look skyward falls between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time, and location matters as much as timing. Observers should position themselves at a high vantage point—a hilltop, a clearing, anywhere that offers an unobstructed view—and distance themselves from light pollution. City lights and streetlamps will wash out the aurora, so the farther from populated areas, the better the chance of seeing it.

The forecast calls for calm auroral conditions to persist through Saturday. NOAA expects the Kp index to remain at three on both Friday and Saturday, meaning Thursday night is not the only opportunity, though it is the primary one. No major geomagnetic storms are anticipated, which means the aurora is unlikely to surge dramatically farther south. NOAA did note a slight possibility of minor solar radiation events that could cause some radio blackouts, but nothing that would dramatically alter the viewing prospects.

This week's aurora is part of a larger pattern. Both NASA and NOAA have confirmed that the sun is currently in a phase called solar maximum, a period of heightened activity on the sun's surface that sends more space weather events toward Earth. That increased activity is what pulls the northern lights farther south than usual, making them visible to people who would normally never see them. The solar maximum is expected to continue intensifying through 2025 and into early 2026, meaning more opportunities like this one are coming.

For those planning to photograph the display, a standard camera with manual settings will work. The key is setting the focus to infinity, opening the aperture as wide as possible, using a slow shutter speed, and pushing the ISO high. Smartphone users can activate night mode and similarly adjust the shutter speed downward. The technical requirements are modest; what matters most is being in the right place at the right time with clear skies overhead.

Thursday night's forecast is not a guarantee. The viewing line—the boundary below which aurora sightings become unlikely—sits just below the Canadian border, meaning observers in the northern United States are in a zone of low to moderate probability rather than certainty. But for anyone in Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, or the other states in the forecast zone with a clear night and the patience to stay up past 10 p.m., the chance to see one of nature's most striking light shows is real.