No Clear Winner in Israeli Election as Exit Polls Leave Netanyahu's Fate in the Balance

By 8 p.m. on Tuesday, more than 74 percent of eligible Israeli voters had already cast ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee. That was the highest turnout at that hour in decades and eight percentage points above the last election in 2022. When polls closed, exit polls from major Israeli TV stations pointed to no clear winner, which likely means weeks of maneuvering before a prime minister is named or another election is called.

According to those polls, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc won about 50 seats. The opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, won 52 to 53. Arab parties took 17 to 18. A majority in the 120-seat parliament requires 61, and neither side reached it. Exit polls can be wrong, preliminary results were expected within hours, and final results in the coming days may differ from them.

The Arab-led parties may hold the decisive votes, but only if someone is willing to work with them, and both major blocs have so far refused. Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting was still underway that "our vote will change the government." Arabs make up about 20 percent of Israel's population. Netanyahu had warned that Arab parties were receiving "truly massive support" and heading to the polls in "unprecedented numbers." His Likud party petitioned to extend voting past 10 p.m., but the election commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot rejected the extension and urged voters to ignore Netanyahu's "scare tactics." Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that if Netanyahu and his allies lost, "it will be Mansour Abbas' government."

The vote is Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and it is widely read as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. Many Israelis also see it as a contest over the character of the state, with Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies on one side and those trying to preserve its liberal and secular foundations on the other. The wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have drawn worldwide outrage and strained ties with Israel's closest allies. Public support among Americans has fallen sharply, and European and other partners have imposed sanctions. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Ahead of the vote he warned Iran of "a devastating blow" if it attacked.

Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption and defends its security and Jewish identity against outside pressure and liberal elites. Detractors call him polarizing, say he prolonged the Gaza war and the hostage crisis for political reasons while on trial for corruption, accuse him of undermining the judiciary, and fault him for a system that lets ultra-Orthodox men avoid military service. Eisenkot's backers describe a capable leader with strong security credentials. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza. The parties likely to support him have pledged to restore Israel's international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.

The day carried visible emotion. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot. In Tel Aviv, relatives of people killed on Oct. 7 and former hostages held a moment of silence. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed, said: "Remember all those whose voices are no more." About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory service under the shadow of war, could vote for the first time. Eisenkot began his day in communities attacked on Oct. 7 and later called it "perhaps the most critical day since the founding of the state." Voter Angela Bengur in Jerusalem said the government "is driving the country into the ground," while Nisso Shitrit in Jaffa said the vote is about who serves and who evades service. Dean Livne, acting director-general of the elections commission, said complaints about irregularities were much fewer than in previous elections.

No party has ever won an outright majority, so coalitions are the rule. Israel's president will ask the leader with the best chance, usually the head of the largest party, to build one. Minority governments are possible but depend on outside support. If no one succeeds, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 over a similar stalemate. Official results, and whether any bloc will bargain with the Arab parties, are what to watch next.