On a quiet autumn evening, Israel's voters closed a long and bruised chapter by returning a verdict that refuses to be simple. Exit polls suggest that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot has reached the 61 seats that a governing majority requires, leaving the country in the familiar Israeli waiting room of coalition talks. The uncertainty arrives in the shadow of the October 2023 attack and the wars that followed, so the ballot reads less like a settled answer than a question the nation is still trying to phrase. Whether the Arab parties, whom both major b
No Clear Winner in Israeli Election as Exit Polls Leave Netanyahu's Fate in the Balance
The election followed the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack and wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, with families of victims still grieving and calling for remembrance.
No party in Israel has ever won an outright majority.
Mark
Start with the basic picture. What did the exit polls actually say?
Mimi
That neither side reached 61 seats. Netanyahu's bloc was at 50, the opposition at 52 or 53, and Arab-led parties at 17 or 18.
Mark
So why does the Arab share matter so much?
Mimi
Because it's the gap between both blocs and a majority. Those parties could decide who governs, though both blocs have refused to partner with them.
Luke
Keep in mind these are exit polls, not results. The reporting says final numbers may differ, so every seat figure is provisional.
Mark
Netanyahu said Arab turnout was unprecedented. Is that confirmed?
Mimi
He offered no evidence. But Central Elections Committee data did show turnout rising significantly in Arab communities and liberal areas.
Luke
Right, so the direction is supported but not his characterization of it. And he has used Arab turnout warnings before to rally his base.
Mark
What about Likud's request to extend voting hours?
Mimi
The commission rejected it, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot also opposed it.
Luke
Whether that request reflected real worry or tactics isn't something the reporting can tell us.
Mark
And what happens now?
Mimi
Possibly weeks of coalition talks, or another election. No Israeli party has ever won a majority outright.
Luke
Whether any bloc will actually work with Arab parties is unknown. Until now, both have said no.
El Pulso
- Exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc near 50 seats and the opposition at 52 to 53, both short of the 61 needed to govern.
- Arab-led parties, holding 17 to 18 seats, could become kingmakers even as both major blocs publicly refuse to partner with them.
- Netanyahu's warnings about Arab turnout and Likud's failed push to extend voting hours have sharpened an already bitter campaign.
- Final results may shift from the exit polls, and a deadlock could mean weeks of haggling or yet another national election.
On a quiet autumn evening, Israel's voters closed a long and bruised chapter by returning a verdict that refuses to be simple. Exit polls suggest that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot has reached the 61 seats that a governing majority requires, leaving the country in the familiar Israeli waiting room of coalition talks. The uncertainty arrives in the shadow of the October 2023 attack and the wars that followed, so the ballot reads less like a settled answer than a question the nation is still trying to phrase. Whether the Arab parties, whom both major blocs have so far refused to embrace, end up holding the deciding hand will say as much about Israel's self-image as about its next prime minister.
Israel's polls closed on Tuesday night, and the exit polls broadcast by the country's major networks pointed to no clear winner. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the one led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot appeared to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. The projected numbers put Netanyahu at about 50, the opposition at 52 or 53, and Arab-led parties at 17 or 18. That last group could decide who governs, yet both major blocs have refused to partner with it. Exit polls can be wrong, so final results, expected within days, may look different.
This was the first national vote since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, and it was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's wartime leadership and his long rule. Turnout was high, with more than 74 percent of eligible voters casting ballots by 8 p.m., and about 330,000 young Israelis voted for the first time. Netanyahu called the day "a very moving and fateful moment," and he warned, without evidence, of massive Arab turnout, a familiar tactic. The election commission refused Likud's request to extend voting hours.
The emotion of the day was visible. In Tel Aviv, families of those killed on October 7 and former hostages observed a moment of silence, and one mother urged the country to remember those whose voices are gone. Eisenkot, whose own son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, spent his morning in the communities attacked that day and called the vote perhaps the most critical since the state's founding.
Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman who led the country through war, while critics accuse him of prolonging the Gaza conflict for political reasons and weakening the judiciary. Israel has never produced an outright majority, so the coming weeks will be about coalition arithmetic, and the final tally will reveal whether Arab parties hold the deciding votes.
Israel's polls closed on Tuesday night, and the exit polls broadcast by the country's major TV stations pointed to no clear winner. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the bloc led by his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to have reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in parliament. If the pattern holds, Israel faces weeks of political maneuvering before a prime minister is named, or another round of elections.
The numbers from those polls: Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats, the opposition at 52 or 53, and Arab-led parties at 17 or 18. That last figure matters most. It could put those parties in a position to decide who governs, but both major blocs have so far refused to partner with them. Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and they may differ from what the polls showed.
This was Israel's first national election since Hamas's attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and it was widely treated as a referendum on Netanyahu's wartime leadership and on his nearly unbroken 17-year rule. Israelis were divided over him even before the attack, the deadliest in the country's history. The wars that followed, in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have drawn worldwide outrage, strained relations with Israel's closest allies and fed a rise in antisemitism. Netanyahu also faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies.
Turnout was high. By 8 p.m., more than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee. That was the highest at that hour in decades and 8 percentage points above the 2022 election. More than 7 million people were eligible to vote, and tens of thousands reportedly came from overseas. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service, voted for the first time. Committee data indicated turnout rose significantly in Arab communities and in liberal strongholds.
Netanyahu, who voted just after midday, called it "a very moving and fateful moment." He told journalists that Arab parties were receiving "massive, truly massive, support" and heading to the polls in unprecedented numbers. He offered no evidence, and he has used warnings about Arab turnout in past elections to energize right-wing voters. His Likud party also petitioned to extend voting hours beyond 10 p.m. The election commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had opposed the extension and urged voters to ignore Netanyahu's "scare tactics." Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting continued, "Our vote will change the government." Arabs make up about 20% of Israel's population. Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that if Netanyahu and his allies lost, "it will be Mansour Abbas' government."
The day carried visible emotion. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7 and former hostages held a moment of silence. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed, said: "Remember all those whose voices are no more." Eisenkot began his day in communities attacked on Oct. 7, saying anyone in government with "a shred of responsibility" would have started the morning there. He urged Israelis to vote out "the worst government Israel has known" and said it was perhaps the most critical day since the state's founding. His own son and two nephews were killed in Gaza.
Elections commission acting director-general Dean Livne said complaints about irregularities were scattered and far fewer than in previous elections. The campaign's final days also carried tension with Iran, as Netanyahu warned Tehran it would face "a devastating blow" if it attacked.
Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption. Critics say he prolonged the Gaza war and the hostage crisis for political reasons while on trial for corruption, weakened the judiciary and tolerated ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service. No Israeli party has ever won an outright majority, so the next step is coalition arithmetic, and the final tally will show whether the Arab parties hold the deciding votes.
Citas Notables
Our vote will change the government.— Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra'am party
Remember all those whose voices are no more.— Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed on Oct. 7
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