No Clear Winner in Israeli Election as Exit Polls Leave Netanyahu's Fate Hanging

Israel's polls closed on Tuesday night, and the first picture to emerge was one of deadlock. Exit polls released by the country's major TV stations suggested that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the bloc led by his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, had reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

The numbers were close. The polls put Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 52 or 53. Arab parties were projected to win 17 or 18. If that holds, they could decide who becomes prime minister, though both main blocs have so far refused to partner with them. Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours, final results within days, and they may differ from the polls.

The vote was Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack. It was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule, which had divided Israelis bitterly even before the deadliest attack in the country's history. The wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have stirred worldwide outrage, strained ties with Israel's closest allies and fueled a rise in antisemitism. Inside Israel, many saw the contest as a fight over the character of the state: Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies on one side, and those seeking to preserve its liberal and secular foundations on the other.

Turnout was high. By 8 p.m., more than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots, the highest at that hour in decades and eight percentage points above the 2022 election, according to the Central Elections Committee. More than 7 million people are eligible to vote, and tens of thousands reportedly flew in from abroad. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service under the shadow of war, voted for the first time.

The Arab vote became a flashpoint during the day. Netanyahu warned that Arab parties were receiving "truly massive support" and heading to the polls in "unprecedented numbers." His Likud party petitioned to extend voting past 10 p.m., but the election commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had rejected the extension and urged voters to ignore Netanyahu's "scare tactics." Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting continued: "Our vote will change the government." Arabs make up about 20% of Israel's population. Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that if Netanyahu and his allies lost, "it will be Mansour Abbas' government."

The day carried emotion. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7 and former hostages held a moment of silence. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed. Eisenkot began his day in communities attacked on Oct. 7, saying that anyone in government with "a shred of responsibility" would start the morning there. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza. He urged Israelis to vote out "the worst government Israel has known," and acknowledged that victory was not certain. Dean Livne, acting director-general of the elections commission, said complaints about irregularities were far fewer than in previous elections.

The case for and against Netanyahu was familiar. Supporters see a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption and defends its security and Jewish identity. Critics point to his ongoing corruption trial, accuse him of prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons, and say he is weakening the judiciary and shielding ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service. He also faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Voter Angela Bengur in Jerusalem said the government is "driving the country into the ground." In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about "who serves and who evades service."

What follows is a negotiation. Israel's president will ask the leader with the best chance of building a coalition, usually the head of the largest party, to try. If no one can, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 over a similar stalemate. Final counts will show whether Tuesday's exit polls hold.