As India's markets hold their breath ahead of the Union Budget and a Federal Reserve rate decision, the Nifty finds itself at a familiar crossroads — not in freefall, but not yet ready to climb. Technical analyst Milan Vaishnav reads this moment not as crisis but as consolidation, a market pausing to gather itself around a meaningful support zone before the next chapter is written. In such intervals, the wisdom lies not in bold directional bets but in the quieter discipline of finding what is already strong.
Nifty likely rangebound ahead of Budget; selective bets in HCL Tech, TechM advised
Stay selective. Do not short aggressively. Focus on strength.
Mark
So Milan is saying the market is not going to crater, but it is not going to soar either. We are stuck in a box. Why should I care about a box?
Mimi
Because a box is where you make money if you know which stocks are strong inside it. The Nifty as a whole might go nowhere, but HCL Tech and TechM are moving higher. That is the whole point—selectivity.
Luke
But he is also saying the Nifty has already violated the 200-day moving average. That is usually a warning sign. How confident is he that 24,500 actually holds?
Mimi
He is saying it is the primary support. If it holds, the uptrend is defended. If it breaks, then we have a real problem.
Luke
That is a big if. And he is also hedging by saying the 50-week MA is at 24,758, which is higher. So there is room to fall before we hit the real floor.
Mark
What about Paytm? He says it has limited downside. But it has already fallen a lot. How does he know it will not fall more?
Mimi
Because the primary uptrend is still intact on the charts. The stock reacted to bad news, but the longer-term structure has not broken.
Luke
That is a technical argument, not a fundamental one. If the news is still bad, the stock could keep falling regardless of what the charts say.
Mark
And Swiggy—he is saying it might bounce if it holds 296. But he is also saying it is technically weak. That sounds like he is not sure.
Mimi
He is not sure. He is saying watch that level. If it holds, there is a rebound. If it breaks, there is more pain.
Luke
So his advice is really: wait and see what happens at these key levels, and in the meantime, own the stocks that are already winning. That is not a prediction. That is a framework.
Mark
Is that enough to trade on?
Mimi
If you are disciplined about it, yes. You are not betting on a direction. You are betting on relative strength.
Luke
And you are betting that the Budget and Fed decision do not blow up the whole setup. Those are two big wildcards.
The Pulse
- The Nifty has slipped below its 200-day moving average, triggering oversold signals and rattling investor confidence ahead of two major macro events.
- Despite the pressure, a critical support band between 24,500 and 24,750 is holding — and so long as it does, the broader uptrend remains structurally intact.
- Aggressive shorting is being warned against; the market's sideways drift is a digestion phase, not a breakdown, and mistiming a short here carries real risk.
- IT names HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra are trading above key moving averages across all timeframes, signaling pockets of genuine strength in an otherwise cautious tape.
- Midcaps are emerging as the smarter risk allocation over small-caps, with relative strength indicators beginning to turn in their favor after a period of consolidation.
As India's markets hold their breath ahead of the Union Budget and a Federal Reserve rate decision, the Nifty finds itself at a familiar crossroads — not in freefall, but not yet ready to climb. Technical analyst Milan Vaishnav reads this moment not as crisis but as consolidation, a market pausing to gather itself around a meaningful support zone before the next chapter is written. In such intervals, the wisdom lies not in bold directional bets but in the quieter discipline of finding what is already strong.
Milan Vaishnav of Gemstone Equity Research sees the Nifty navigating a holding pattern this week — trading sideways rather than breaking down, even as it sits below its 200-day moving average and daily charts flash oversold readings. The real floor, in his view, is the 50-week moving average near 24,758, with the broader 24,500–24,750 zone serving as the line that must hold to keep the primary uptrend alive. With the Union Budget and a Federal Reserve rate decision both looming, linear moves in either direction seem unlikely. This is a market in deliberate pause.
Vaishnav's prescription for investors is one of surgical discipline: stay selective, avoid aggressive shorts, and hunt for relative strength rather than making sweeping market calls. Within IT, HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra stand out — both trading above key moving averages across all timeframes and positioned for meaningful upside. Paytm, despite its recent battering, retains an intact primary uptrend with limited further downside. Swiggy, however, is technically fragile, approaching a double-bottom support near 296 rupees that will either spark a rebound or invite deeper weakness.
For direct stock picks, Vaishnav favors Bharat Electronics and Lupin. BEL has been a consistent relative outperformer and is forming an ascending triangle on higher timeframe charts — a pattern that tends to resolve upward. Lupin is consolidating with its uptrend and relative strength both intact. On the broader market spectrum, midcaps are the preferred terrain over small-caps: the Nifty MidCap 100 has consolidated without retreating, and its relative strength against the Nifty 500 is showing early signs of recovery. The week ahead, shaped by budget headlines and Fed signals, will either validate these support levels or force a reckoning with them.
Milan Vaishnav, a technical analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, sees the Nifty holding its ground this week despite recent pressure, with the market likely to trade sideways rather than collapse. The index has dipped below its 200-day moving average at 25,412, and oversold signals are flashing on daily charts, but Vaishnav believes the real floor sits lower—around the 50-week moving average at 24,758. He expects the Nifty to defend the 24,500 to 24,750 zone, which would keep the primary uptrend intact. Major drawdowns are unlikely, he argues, though linear moves in either direction may remain elusive as the market digests recent gains ahead of the Union Budget and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
The strategy for investors right now, according to Vaishnav, is surgical precision rather than broad bets. Stay selective. Do not short aggressively. Focus on pockets of relative strength—stocks and sectors that are holding up better than the market as a whole. This is not a time for conviction plays across the board; it is a time for disciplined stock picking. Vaishnav acknowledges that predicting exact market bottoms is a fool's errand, but he is confident that so long as the 24,500-24,750 support holds, the longer-term uptrend remains defended. Only a breach of that zone would signal a serious reversal.
Within the IT sector, which has proven resilient even as absolute returns have stayed modest, Vaishnav sees meaningful upside ahead. HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra are both trading above key moving averages across all timeframes—a technical signal of strength. He expects both to move higher from current levels. Paytm, which has been hammered by negative news, still has limited downside remaining and should recover, he believes, since its primary uptrend is intact. Swiggy is a different story: it is technically weak and approaching a critical double-bottom support near 296 rupees. If that level holds, a technical rebound is possible; if it breaks, further weakness looms.
For his top two stock picks, Vaishnav turns to Bharat Electronics and Lupin. BEL has been a strong relative outperformer in recent months and has formed an ascending triangle on higher timeframe charts—a pattern that typically resolves upward. Lupin has kept its primary uptrend intact and is consolidating, with relative strength against the broader market intact. Both offer the kind of technical setup Vaishnav favors: stocks that are holding up when others are not.
On the question of midcaps versus small-caps, Vaishnav expects midcaps to outperform. The Nifty Small Cap Index is technically weak, but the Nifty MidCap 100 Index has merely consolidated after hitting multi-month resistance—it has not retreated. Relative strength indicators for midcaps against the broader Nifty 500 are showing early signs of improvement. The message is clear: if you are going to take risk in the smaller end of the market, midcaps offer better technical footing than small-caps right now. The week ahead will test these levels and these convictions, with the Budget and Fed decision serving as the twin catalysts that could either confirm the range or break it.
Notable Quotes
It would be amateurish to think that one can buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest point. One can never catch the last cent.— Milan Vaishnav, technical analyst
The key is to stay highly selective, not short the markets too much, and stay invested in relatively stronger pockets.— Milan Vaishnav
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