On a late autumn night in Israel, as the polls closed and the country's voters folded their ballots into the ballot boxes, the first projections offered not a verdict but a riddle. Benjamin Netanyahu, who has moved in and out of power for nearly three decades, and Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief who now leads the opposition, appeared locked in a contest where neither could yet claim the sixty-one seats that a governing majority requires. The vote, which drew the highest turnout in more than a quarter century, was read by many as a judgment on a leader and a war that has shadowed the natio
Netanyahu's Likud Leads Israeli Exit Polls in Neck-and-Neck Race Against Eisenkot's Yashar
The article references the ongoing war in Gaza and escalating violence in the occupied West Bank, but gives no new casualty or displacement figures.
No single party in Israel's history has ever won 61 seats.
On a late autumn night in Israel, as the polls closed and the country's voters folded their ballots into the ballot boxes, the first projections offered not a verdict but a riddle. Benjamin Netanyahu, who has moved in and out of power for nearly three decades, and Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief who now leads the opposition, appeared locked in a contest where neither could yet claim the sixty-one seats that a governing majority requires. The vote, which drew the highest turnout in more than a quarter century, was read by many as a judgment on a leader and a war that has shadowed the nation since October 2023. Whether the country has chosen change or continuity remains, for now, a question the final count must answer.
Late on Tuesday, as polling stations across Israel closed at 10pm, the first exit polls arrived and settled almost nothing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former military chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, were running neck and neck, and neither appeared to have a clear path to a governing majority of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
Channel 12 projected 52 seats for Netanyahu's bloc against 49 for Eisenkot's opposition, while Likud led all parties with an estimated 27 seats to Yashar's 21. Arab parties were expected to win 19 seats between them. The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership and his handling of the war in Gaza that followed the October 7 attacks, unfolding as settler violence in the occupied West Bank escalated.
Turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. Soldiers voted in large numbers, and more than 60,000 Israelis flew home to cast ballots, with anyone still in line at closing allowed to vote.
Both leaders claimed the night. Eisenkot declared that "the old era is over," while Netanyahu insisted Likud could not be matched and called for a national right-wing government, accusing television channels of skewing their projections. His final-day posts, which described Arab voters in alarming terms, drew sharp rebukes from Arab party leaders who called them a scare tactic.
The exit polls are unofficial. Preliminary results are expected Wednesday and the final count by Friday. Then the real negotiation begins: Herzog will name a nominee, who will have 42 days to build a government, with minority or rotation arrangements among the options. If no one succeeds, Netanyahu's cabinet remains as caretaker, or the country heads back to the polls.
Late on Tuesday night, as polling stations across Israel closed at 10pm local time, the first exit polls came in and showed almost nothing settled. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, were running neck and neck, and neither appeared to have a clear route to a governing majority.
Channel 12 projected that Netanyahu's bloc would win 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, against 49 for the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot's Yashar party. Channel 13 had earlier shown the two blocs tied at 51 seats each. Both networks put Netanyahu's Likud as the largest single party, at an estimated 27 seats to Yashar's 21. Arab parties were projected to win 19 seats between them, building on their 2022 showing. A government needs 61 seats, and no single party in Israel's history has ever won that many.
The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership and his handling of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the war in Gaza that followed. It took place while Israeli settler violence in the occupied West Bank has escalated, and while tensions are rising with several neighbours, many of which Israel has attacked over the past three years. The reporting offers no new casualty figures.
Turnout was high. The Central Elections Committee put participation at 77.7 percent of eligible voters, the highest since 1999 and 7.1 percentage points above 2022, when Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister on and off since 1996, returned to office. The military said turnout among soldiers had passed 68 percent by 5pm, and more than 60,000 Israelis flew home from abroad to vote. Anyone still in line at closing time was allowed to cast a ballot.
Both leaders claimed the night. Speaking at Yashar headquarters, Eisenkot said the public had voted for change and that "the old era is over." Netanyahu told supporters that Likud is the largest party, that nobody can compete with it, and that the right-wing bloc holds what he called a decisive majority. He called for a national right-wing government and accused Israeli TV channels of trying to discourage his voters by projecting stronger results for the opposition.
Others weighed in. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said his party was projected at seven seats and promised to keep expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he was proud of the journey of his Otzma Yehudit party. Democrats leader Yair Golan wrote on X that voters had fired the Netanyahu government. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, whose party was projected at around seven seats, said he hoped the final count would give the opposition bloc and his party the 61 seats required.
The campaign's final day was marked by sharp exchanges. In posts on X, Netanyahu described Arab voters as Muslim Brotherhood supporters and accused them of raiding polling stations and stealing the elections. He also urged right-wing Israelis to go vote for Likud, calling it a matter of life and death. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said Netanyahu knew Arab voters could end his bloody reign, and Abbas called the remarks a scare tactic meant to drive right-wing voters to the polls.
The exit polls are unofficial and may differ from the real count. Preliminary official results are expected Wednesday, the final tally by Friday, and formal publication on November 4. Coalition talks then begin. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders and name the candidate most likely to succeed, who will have up to 42 days to build a government. Options include a minority government or a rotation deal. If no one succeeds, Netanyahu's cabinet stays on as a caretaker government, or new elections are called.
Citações Notáveis
The old era is over, and Israel is starting a new era.— Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar leader
The right bloc has a majority. And it is a decisive majority.— Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud leader
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Politics & Governance