Israel's voters have left their country at a familiar crossroads: a sitting prime minister whose bloc has lost its majority, a challenger who cannot yet form a government alone, and a record bloc of Palestinian citizens whose presence in the arithmetic is still treated as a question rather than a resource. As the last absentee ballots are counted and coalition talks open on Thursday, the outcome turns less on the numbers themselves than on whether the opposition is willing to count the people it has long preferred to exclude. The result could give Netanyahu another term by default, or it could
Netanyahu's bloc loses majority as Israeli opposition weighs whether to govern with Palestinian-led parties
"Netanyahu lost. I know how to count."
Mark
The numbers look like a loss for Netanyahu. Why isn't it simple?
Mimi
Because 53 and 48 aren't the whole picture. Eisenkot's bloc plus the Palestinian parties comes to 67, but most Jewish opposition parties said they wouldn't govern with them.
Mark
So the barrier is political, not mathematical.
Mimi
Right. Golan's line was that he knows how to count. He's the only opposition leader so far openly backing that partnership.
Luke
Worth being careful, though. These are projections at 91% counted, and the 53, 48 and 19 are Israeli media projections. Final results come Thursday.
Mark
Could the absentee ballots change things?
Luke
Reporting says not significantly. About 500,000 ballots, mostly military and diplomats. But I wouldn't call it settled until the count ends.
Mimi
And Eisenkot hasn't flatly said no. He set conditions that make it politically impossible for Palestinian parties to join.
Mark
What does Jabareen want?
Mimi
He'd cooperate with an opposition-led government but not join it. That could allow a minority government, though few observers think it would last.
Luke
Note that the claim about its fragility is observers' judgment, not a known outcome. Likewise, Likud's accusation that Arab parties were stealing the election came without evidence; the committee will just review it routinely.
Mark
And what's the cost of delay?
Mimi
Markets already flinched. The shekel fell over 2% and Tel Aviv stocks fell 2.5%.
Il Polso
- With 91% counted, neither Netanyahu's 53 seats nor Eisenkot's 48 reaches the 61 needed, leaving the Knesset without a clear path.
- Palestinian-led parties have surged to a record 19 seats, yet most Jewish opposition leaders have publicly ruled out governing alongside them.
- Likud has filed fraud complaints and demanded police and Shin Bet probes, alleging without evidence that Arab parties are stealing the vote.
- The shekel fell over 2% and Tel Aviv stocks dropped 2.5%, with analysts warning the next government will likely be fragile.
- Coalition talks begin Thursday, but Netanyahu could remain as caretaker unless the opposition bridges its deepest divide.
Israel's voters have left their country at a familiar crossroads: a sitting prime minister whose bloc has lost its majority, a challenger who cannot yet form a government alone, and a record bloc of Palestinian citizens whose presence in the arithmetic is still treated as a question rather than a resource. As the last absentee ballots are counted and coalition talks open on Thursday, the outcome turns less on the numbers themselves than on whether the opposition is willing to count the people it has long preferred to exclude. The result could give Netanyahu another term by default, or it could mark the moment a democracy is forced to decide who belongs inside its governing arithmetic.
By Wednesday morning, with 91% of the vote counted, Israel's election had produced a result that satisfied no one. Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc stood at 53 seats, his challenger Gadi Eisenkot's at 48, and Palestinian-led parties had reached a record 19. The Knesset requires 61, and no grouping had got there.
The count was not finished. Absentee ballots from soldiers, diplomats, prisoners and hospital patients were still being checked and are expected to change little, with final results due Thursday. Meanwhile the arithmetic pointed toward the opposition only if it looked beyond itself. Most of Israel's Jewish opposition has ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, a stance that could let Netanyahu remain as caretaker prime minister.
Yair Golan, of the centre-left Democrats, rejected that logic and called for a change government with Arab citizens, who make up about 20% of the population. Palestinian leaders were blunt in return: anyone seeking a real alternative must talk to them, though they would support an opposition government from outside rather than join it. Netanyahu's Likud, for its part, accused Arab parties of stealing the vote and demanded investigations, which the elections committee said it would review.
Markets reacted sharply, with the shekel and Tel Aviv shares both falling. As talks open on Thursday, President Herzog has urged calm and an open mind. The question now is whether Eisenkot's allies will accept Palestinian support, or hand Netanyahu a lifeline through a unity government or another election.
By Wednesday morning, with 91% of the vote counted in Israel's Tuesday election, the numbers had settled into a shape that satisfied no one. Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats. The bloc led by his challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, stood at 48. Parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel were on track for a record 19. The Knesset requires 61 for a majority, and no grouping had reached it.
The count was not finished. The elections committee said it began tallying absentee ballots at 1am local time, a process expected to run until Thursday evening. About 500,000 ballots from soldiers at IDF bases, diplomats abroad, prisoners, prison guards and hospital patients are among them. Those voters cast ballots at special stations rather than their assigned ones, and the ballots go to the Knesset for a series of checks before being counted, which is why they arrive last. They are not expected to change the results significantly. Final results are due Thursday.
The arithmetic favors the opposition if it looks beyond itself. Eisenkot's bloc and the Palestinian parties together are projected at 67 seats, and Netanyahu's far-right coalition has lost its governing mandate. But most of Israel's Jewish opposition ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties during a campaign in which Netanyahu portrayed Palestinian citizens as an enemy within the state. If that pledge holds, Netanyahu could turn defeat into another term, or at least a stretch as caretaker prime minister, perhaps ahead of another election. Israeli headlines reflected the confusion: Israel Hayom ran "No Clear Government," while Channel 12 wrote that the road to a unity government had been paved.
Yair Golan, who leads the centre-left Democrats, a junior partner in Eisenkot's bloc, rejected that framing. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count," he said, calling for a change government in partnership with Arab citizens, who make up about 20% of the population. He is so far the only opposition leader backing that course. He planned to meet Eisenkot, who chairs the Yashar party, and Yair Lapid, number two in the B'Yachad party, on Thursday, which would mark the formal start of coalition talks. Political psychology researcher Eran Halperin said a survey taken as polls closed showed a clear majority of opposition voters favored a government with the Palestinian-led Ra'am to unseat Netanyahu. Eisenkot, a former general, has not directly ruled out governing with Palestinians but has set conditions that make it politically impossible for them to join.
The Palestinian parties have been plainer. Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, said the public voted for new leadership and that anyone wanting a genuine alternative would have to talk to them. He told AFP he would cooperate with an opposition-led government but not join it outright. Ad hoc support from Palestinian lawmakers could let Eisenkot run a minority government, though few observers expect it to last. Haaretz urged the opposition to form a government with the Palestinian parties, calling the 19 seats an unprecedented achievement and warning that discarding them would be a slap in the face to voters who turned out for integration.
Netanyahu's Likud, meanwhile, filed a complaint accusing Arab parties of compromising the integrity of the election, and demanded that police and the Shin Bet investigate, saying without evidence that they were "stealing" the vote. The Central Elections Committee said it would examine the claims as part of its routine post-election review.
Markets reacted. The shekel fell more than 2% on Wednesday, heading for its worst day since the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks and erasing Tuesday's gains. Tel Aviv's main stock index dropped 2.5%, its worst showing in over four months. Capital Economics' William Jackson said the results gave Netanyahu more paths to power and that the next government would probably be fragile. UN rights chief Volker Turk said he hoped it would "change course massively" and respect international law.
President Isaac Herzog, who decides whom to ask to form a government, urged parties to keep an open mind and avoid a second election. With talks beginning Thursday, the question is whether Eisenkot's allies will accept Palestinian support, or leave Netanyahu a lifeline through a unity government or new elections.
Citazioni salienti
Netanyahu lost. I know how to count.— Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats
We must do everything we can to avoid another round of elections.— President Isaac Herzog
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Politics & Governance