Netanyahu's Bloc Falls Short of Majority as Israel Faces Difficult Coalition Talks

The final count came early on Friday, October 30, 2026, three days after Israelis voted, and it confirmed what the earlier tallies had suggested: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc no longer holds a majority in the Knesset. It won 53 seats. The main opposition bloc won 48. Arab-led parties took the remaining 19, a historic showing. Any government needs at least 61 of the 120 seats, so the parties now face weeks of bargaining across deep divides, from ultra-Orthodox to secular to Arab-led.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, remains in charge for now. Centrist politician Yair Lapid wrote on X that the truly hard part was beginning. He urged patience and said that, for anyone wondering whether something was happening behind the current silence, the answer was yes.

The procedure is fixed. The results still have to be certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday, November 4. Herzog will then task someone with forming a government. That could be the leader of the party with the most votes, which is Netanyahu, or whoever the party leaders judge best placed. If several attempts fail, Israel heads to a new election early next year. Herzog said this week he would do everything in his power to avoid that.

The central question is political and uncomfortable. Will the opposition parties that campaigned hard to unseat Netanyahu partner with Arab-led parties? Or will they abandon their vows and join Netanyahu in a potentially fractious unity government? On Friday, as much of the country wound down for Shabbat, it was unclear who was meeting with whom. Israelis argued over the options. Some voiced traditional wariness about Arab parties, while others said it was time to embrace them. Beny Engalrd, a Tel Aviv resident, noted that Israel has many possible combinations, unlike the United States with its two parties.

In the hours before the results, Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties had "stolen" the election, possibly with foreign help. The opposition accused him of demonising Arab citizens, who make up 20% of the population and turned out in unprecedented numbers, angered by Netanyahu's far-right allies such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir's party lost seats. In his first public comment on Friday, Netanyahu posted on X that forming a coalition with Arab parties is forbidden.

The allegations have an official paper trail, though not a confirmed basis. Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, who heads the election committee, said "serious suspicions" of foreign interference had been brought to him. In a letter to the Shin Bet, he said he could not verify them and asked the agency to investigate. Israeli media reported that Likud members were accusing Qatar, which many Israelis see as a patron of Hamas. Qatar called the claims "ridiculous and dangerous." Acting Director General Dean Livne said the investigation rests on classified intelligence and warned that reports about it were "entirely unfounded." He said it does not affect the final results and does not concern any particular sector of the population. The Shin Bet said its inquiry was not meant to cast aspersions on a section of the public that voted lawfully. The committee also told a concerned lawmaker that allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity are baseless, and it wants the Shin Bet's findings within a week.

By casting doubt on the vote, Netanyahu appeared to be trying to block any alliance between his opponents and the Arab-led parties. He has suggested it would be treasonous for his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, or others to join them.

The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on November 10. Once it convenes, Eisenkot's bloc could team up with the Arab parties to elect a new speaker. That would give them control of the parliamentary agenda and potentially let them pass legislation before any government forms. Hundreds of Israelis have already rallied urging such cooperation, which has happened only once, briefly, in 2021. Miri Sklair of Jaffa said she believes the Arab parties are a legitimate part of the state's population and should be partners.

The stakes for Netanyahu are personal. Losing office would expose him to accountability for years-long corruption allegations, and an inquiry into the security failures before the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack would almost certainly begin. The next dates to watch are November 4, when results go to Herzog, and November 10, when the speaker vote could show where the new majority lies.