Netanyahu Reportedly Pressed Military Toward Iran Strike as Election Nears

Two days before Israelis vote, Benjamin Netanyahu posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud engulfing Tel Aviv, with a message to voters: choose him or risk annihilation. Anyone who cares about their own existence and their family's, he wrote in a post about Iran's nuclear programme, should have a trembling hand before voting for the opposition.

The image came as his far-right coalition narrowly trails in the polls ahead of Tuesday's close-run election. It was not the only sign of pressure. Israel's Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu and the armed forces chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, clashed in recent days over a directive to the military. According to the report, the directive could have sparked an immediate conflagration with Iran at a very sensitive juncture, by provoking a miscalculation by Tehran. Its details were not specified. Zamir reportedly asked for it to be put to him in writing.

Netanyahu denied the report, and the defence ministry later said it had no intention of carrying out military operations against Iran. Then, on Monday, CNN reported that in recent weeks Netanyahu had tried to persuade Donald Trump to launch a renewed assault on Iran, reviving the war the two men started in February. The report confirmed an earlier account in the Financial Times and said Trump had ruled out any such action until the US congressional elections next week. The Israel Defense Forces issued a Monday statement that stopped well short of denying the press reports. It said only that its decisions rest exclusively on security, professional, objective and national considerations.

The tone is a sharp turn from Netanyahu's earlier triumphalism. In 2025 he claimed a historic victory over Iran that would last generations, and in March he said Israeli and US strikes had destroyed Iran's ability to enrich uranium and produce ballistic missiles. Gadi Eisenkot, a retired general who leads the opposition bloc and is Netanyahu's most likely challenger, voiced confidence in Zamir. He said the opposition would not allow the IDF to become a pawn in Netanyahu's survival campaign.

The arithmetic is difficult for both sides. Most polls suggest Eisenkot's mainly centre-right bloc will win more Knesset seats than Netanyahu's coalition, but neither would reach the 61 needed for a majority. The opposition could most plausibly get there in coalition with parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, roughly a fifth of the population. Conservatives inside Eisenkot's bloc have ruled that out, which raises the prospect of a minority government, another election and a possible Netanyahu comeback. The main opposition parties share his firm opposition to a Palestinian state and have largely backed the war in Gaza. Palestinians in the occupied territories cannot vote.

Netanyahu has framed the choice as existential. Speaking to Channel 14, which has been his most loyal outlet, he said there was a single fundamental issue: Israel's existence. He cast the opposition as the left allied with Palestinians and enemies of the country, saying the alliance between the left and Islam, as seen in Europe, might destroy the state. The opposition bloc is held together more by antipathy to Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for three decades, than by shared programme. He has sought to curb the independence of the judiciary and to make the police and the Shin Bet political tools. He is also on trial on corruption charges, and his legal exposure could grow if he loses power.

He has leaned on Trump's backing too. Trump repeated his endorsement on Sunday, calling Bibi an outstanding warrior prime minister. Walla News reported that this followed relentless pressure from Netanyahu's office. The effect is doubtful: Trump's earlier total endorsement on 18 October moved no polls. In one survey, 64% said it would not affect their vote, 17% said it made them less likely to back Netanyahu, and 12% said it strengthened their resolve to back Likud.

Netanyahu has also predicted growing financial isolation, saying billions of dollars in annual US military aid will dry up soon. He drew a rare public rebuke from the Bank of Israel for repeatedly suggesting cryptocurrencies could help Israel evade global sanctions. The bank said on Sunday evening that crypto cannot be a means of circumventing sanctions, and that the right course is to keep economic ties with primary trading partners and work to prevent sanctions.

A year ago he suggested Israel might have to become a militarised super Sparta, then backed off after fierce public criticism. With far-right allies also suffering unexpected losses in Serbia and Brazil, the return of fear tactics raises the question of whether the ultimate political survivor is finally on the ropes. Polls have shown for over two years that his coalition is likely to lose its slim majority. What to watch now is whether the opposition can assemble a majority without Palestinian Israeli parties, and whether the Iran reports shift the vote.