On an election night in Israel that stretched into the early hours, a country that has grown weary of its own ballot boxes waited for a verdict still half-written. Exit polls suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu, who was pushed from office little more than a year ago, may be walking back toward the premiership he once held for fifteen years. His path runs through a far-right movement that was recently considered beyond the pale of respectable politics and is now sitting at the center of the arithmetic. Whether the projections hold will be decided not by the polls but by the slower work of countin
Netanyahu Poised for Dramatic Comeback as Exit Polls Point to Slim Majority With Far-Right Backing
Once shunned, the far right now holds leverage over a possible Netanyahu return
Mark
Start with the basic picture. What do the exit polls say?
Mimi
That Netanyahu's bloc is winning a slim majority in the 120-seat Knesset, while Yair Lapid's outgoing coalition is projected at 54 seats.
Mark
And that would be a big turnaround.
Mimi
Yes. He was pushed out a little over a year ago after 15 years in office. Now he's possibly coming back, at 73, while on trial for corruption.
Luke
I want to flag that these are exit polls, not results. Only about 45 percent of ballots were counted by early Wednesday, and the outcome was explicitly unclear.
Mark
So the word to hold onto is 'appeared.'
Luke
Right. 'Slim majority' is a projection, and a slim one can flip.
Mark
Why does Jewish Power matter so much here?
Mimi
Netanyahu's route to 61 seats rests partly on them. Polls had far-right parties winning up to 10 percent of seats, which would make them the third-largest faction and give them leverage in coalition talks.
Luke
Note the phrasing, though. 'Up to 10 percent' comes from most polls, and it's a ceiling. The source doesn't say what they'd demand, only that a Cabinet post for Itamar Ben Gvir is likely.
Mark
And Ben Gvir's positions?
Mimi
He supports deporting Arab citizens deemed disloyal to Israel. He's been called a firebrand, and his party was once shunned by the mainstream.
Il Polso
- Only about 45 percent of ballots were counted by early Wednesday, leaving the outcome suspended in uncertainty.
- Exit polls place Netanyahu's bloc at a slim majority, a sharp reversal that has unsettled the political order that ousted him.
- Jewish Power and other far-right parties, once shunned, are polling near 10 percent of seats and gaining leverage that the mainstream cannot easily ignore.
- Coalition talks now loom as the decisive arena, where Netanyahu must secure 61 seats and where Itamar Ben Gvir's possible Cabinet post hangs in the balance.
- The country heads toward a fifth election in under four years, and its direction will hinge on final tallies and the bargaining that follows.
On an election night in Israel that stretched into the early hours, a country that has grown weary of its own ballot boxes waited for a verdict still half-written. Exit polls suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu, who was pushed from office little more than a year ago, may be walking back toward the premiership he once held for fifteen years. His path runs through a far-right movement that was recently considered beyond the pale of respectable politics and is now sitting at the center of the arithmetic. Whether the projections hold will be decided not by the polls but by the slower work of counting and bargaining that follows.
Through the night, Israeli election officials kept counting ballots, and by early Wednesday only about 45 percent had been tallied. The final result remained unclear, but the exit polls from Tuesday's vote pointed in one direction: Benjamin Netanyahu, ousted a little over a year ago, appeared to be heading back toward power.
The bloc he leads was projected to win a slim majority in the 120-seat Knesset, while the outgoing coalition under Prime Minister Yair Lapid was expected to take 54 seats, short of the 61 needed to govern. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, had been removed by an unusual alliance of opposition parties that later fractured over ideology. That collapse triggered the country's fifth election in less than four years, reopening the road back for Netanyahu, now 73 and facing corruption charges.
His route to a majority runs through Jewish Power, the far-right party led by Itamar Ben Gvir, whose proposals include deporting Arab citizens deemed disloyal. Once kept at the margins of mainstream politics, such parties were enjoying record popularity, with most polls giving them as much as 10 percent of seats. That would make them the third-largest force in parliament and hand them real leverage, along with a likely Cabinet post for Ben Gvir.
What comes next depends on the final count and the coalition talks that follow, where Netanyahu's return to the premiership and the role of the far right will be settled.
Through the night in Israel, election officials kept counting ballots, and by early Wednesday morning only about 45 percent had been tallied. The final result was still unclear. But exit polls from Tuesday's vote pointed in one direction: Benjamin Netanyahu, ousted a little over a year ago, appeared to be heading back toward power.
The exit polls showed the bloc led by Netanyahu winning a slim majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The outgoing coalition, headed by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, was projected to take 54 seats. A governing majority requires 61.
If the projections hold, it would be a striking reversal. Netanyahu is Israel's longest-serving prime minister, and his 15-year run ended last year when an unusual coalition of opposition parties pushed him out. That coalition then came apart in June over ideological differences. The collapse sent Israel to its fifth election in less than four years and reopened the path for Netanyahu, who is 73 and is also standing trial on corruption charges.
He was cautious about his chances in an interview on Oct. 18. He said he hoped to replace the government, though he added that nothing was guaranteed.
Part of his path to 61 seats runs through the far-right Jewish Power party, known in Hebrew as Otzma Yehudit. It is led by Itamar Ben Gvir, a firebrand who is among the country's most extreme politicians. Among other positions, Ben Gvir supports deporting Arab citizens he and his allies deem disloyal to Israel.
Jewish Power and other far-right parties were once shunned by Israel's political mainstream. Heading into this election they were enjoying unprecedented popularity. Most polls showed them winning as much as 10 percent of the Knesset's seats. That would make them the third-largest faction in parliament and give them real leverage in any coalition negotiations with Netanyahu.
It would also likely mean a Cabinet post for Ben Gvir.
What happens next depends on two things: the final count, which was less than half complete at the time of reporting, and the coalition bargaining that would follow. Whether Netanyahu regains the premiership, and what role Ben Gvir gets, will be settled in those talks.
Citazioni salienti
I'll replace this government, I hope, although nothing is guaranteed.— Benjamin Netanyahu, interview on Oct. 18
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Politics & Governance