On a cool Tuesday evening, Israelis finished voting in their fifth election in under four years, and the television exit polls that followed hinted that Benjamin Netanyahu, a veteran leader whose long career has been shaped by a corruption trial and a political stalemate, may be returning to power. The projections, still provisional until the count is complete, give his right-wing bloc a slim majority in the 120-seat Knesset, carried by far-right allies whose rise reflects a country weary of repeated votes and anxious about security and the cost of living. It is a moment in which a nation's ap
Netanyahu Poised for Comeback as Exit Polls Show Right-Wing Bloc Near Knesset Majority
Five elections in under four years, and turnout still hit a 1999 high
Mark
The headline says comeback, but nothing is official yet. What do we actually know?
Mimi
Only what the television exit polls showed: 61 to 62 seats for Netanyahu's bloc in a 120-seat Knesset, and 54 to 55 for Lapid's camp. Final results aren't expected until later in the week.
Luke
Right, and that's the key caveat. Exit polls are projections, and the reporting itself says they may differ from the final result. A majority of 61 is one seat over the line, so a small shift changes the story.
Mark
Why does Ben-Gvir matter so much here?
Mimi
His Religious Zionism list surged from the margins and was poised to be the third-largest party. Netanyahu has been counting on him and Smotrich for a majority.
Luke
Worth being clear about what's attributed. The reporting says they've moderated some positions but still call for expelling those deemed disloyal. It also notes Ben-Gvir's past in Kach and his conviction for racist incitement.
Mark
And what about voters? Five elections in under four years sounds exhausting.
Mimi
It was, but turnout was reported at the highest since 1999. Security and prices topped their concerns.
Luke
What we don't have is why people voted as they did. The reporting says policy was overshadowed by Netanyahu himself, but that's a characterization, not a measured finding.
Mark
So what should a reader watch for?
Mimi
The final count, then whether a government with Ben-Gvir in it forms, and how Washington and other allies respond.
Luke
And that last part is still unknown. The source says it risks alarming allies, not that any reaction has happened.
Der Puls
- Exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc edging to 61-62 of 120 seats, a razor-thin majority that could still shift when the final count arrives later in the week.
- Far-right firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir's Religious Zionism list has surged from the political fringe to become the third-largest party in the Knesset.
- Voters exhausted by five elections in under four years turned out in the highest numbers since 1999, driven by fears over street security and soaring prices.
- Washington and other allies are bracing as a potential government could include Ben-Gvir, a former Kach member once convicted of racist incitement.
On a cool Tuesday evening, Israelis finished voting in their fifth election in under four years, and the television exit polls that followed hinted that Benjamin Netanyahu, a veteran leader whose long career has been shaped by a corruption trial and a political stalemate, may be returning to power. The projections, still provisional until the count is complete, give his right-wing bloc a slim majority in the 120-seat Knesset, carried by far-right allies whose rise reflects a country weary of repeated votes and anxious about security and the cost of living. It is a moment in which a nation's appetite for stability and its unease about where that stability leads seem to be pulling against each other.
Exit polls broadcast after voting closed on Tuesday suggested a political comeback for Benjamin Netanyahu. His right-wing bloc was projected to take 61 to 62 of the 120 Knesset seats, a narrow majority that depends heavily on a strong showing from his far-right allies. These are early projections and the final count is not expected until later in the week, but they indicate the right did better than many had anticipated. Before the vote, the bloc had looked likely to fall just short, while Prime Minister Yair Lapid's centrist camp was projected at 54 to 55 seats.
Netanyahu, 73, is Israel's longest-serving prime minister and denies the corruption charges against him, including bribery, fraud and breach of trust, for which he was indicted in 2019. His legal troubles have contributed to the political deadlock that has gripped the country since then. This election, the fifth in less than four years, was triggered when defections split Lapid's fragile coalition of right-wing, liberal and Arab parties. Many voters were frustrated by the repetition, yet turnout reached its highest level since 1999.
The campaign's biggest disruption came from Itamar Ben-Gvir and his Religious Zionism list, which rose from the margins to become poised as the third-largest party. Netanyahu had been counting on Ben-Gvir and fellow far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich. Both have softened some of their most extreme positions, but still call for expelling anyone deemed disloyal to Israel. Voters said security and prices mattered most, though the contest was dominated by Netanyahu's personality more than policy. Lapid, for his part, highlighted the economy and diplomatic progress with countries including Lebanon and Turkey, but it was not enough to hold back the right.
The open question now is what a Netanyahu government would look like. Ben-Gvir, a former member of Kach, a group listed as terrorist by Israel and the United States, was once convicted of racist incitement. Including him could alarm Washington and other allies, and much will hinge on whether the final tally confirms what the exit polls suggested.
Exit polls broadcast on Israeli television after voting closed on Tuesday pointed to a political comeback for Benjamin Netanyahu. They showed his right-wing bloc taking 61 to 62 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a narrow majority, with a strong showing from his far-right allies making the difference.
The figures are early projections, and they may not match the final count, which is not expected until later in the week. Still, they suggested the right had done better than expected. Before the vote, the bloc had been seen falling just short of a majority. Prime Minister Yair Lapid's camp was projected at 54 to 55 seats.
Netanyahu, 73, is Israel's longest-serving premier. He is on trial for corruption and has denied the charges. He was indicted in 2019 on bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and his legal battles have fed the stalemate that has blocked the country's political system since then. This was Israel's fifth election in less than four years. Many voters were exasperated by that, but turnout was nonetheless reported at its highest level since 1999.
The biggest shake-up of the campaign came from Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right firebrand, and his ultra-nationalist Religious Zionism list. After surging in from the political margins, it was poised to become the third-largest party in parliament. Netanyahu had been counting on support from Ben-Gvir and from fellow far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich. The two have moderated some of their extreme positions, but they still call for anyone deemed disloyal to Israel to be expelled from the country.
Likud lawmaker Dudi Amsalem told reporters he was happy and hoped the numbers would keep rising. He said his side would strengthen Jewish identity and strengthen law and order.
The election was triggered by defections from Lapid's unlikely ruling coalition, an alliance of right-wing, liberal and Arab parties. Voters said security on the streets and soaring prices were their main concerns, though policy was overshadowed by Netanyahu's outsized personality. The campaign opened weeks after a brief conflict in August with the militant Islamic Jihad group in Gaza. It also unfolded against rising violence in the occupied West Bank, with near-daily raids and clashes.
Lapid, a centrist, campaigned on his stewardship of Israel's strong economy and on diplomatic advances with countries including Lebanon and Turkey. According to the polls, that was not enough to stop the right.
The next question is what a Netanyahu government would look like. Ben-Gvir is a former member of Kach, a group on Israeli and U.S. terrorist watchlists, and was once convicted of racist incitement. A government that includes him risks alarming allies, Washington among them. Much depends on whether the final count confirms the exit polls.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Of course I'm happy. I only hope it keeps rising.— Dudi Amsalem, Likud lawmaker
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