Early in the week after Israel's vote, the final count arrived and settled little: a Knesset of 120 seats in which Netanyahu's bloc holds 53, the opposition 48, and two Arab-led parties 19, with no camp able to reach the 61 that a government requires. It is a familiar kind of Israeli stalemate, where the arithmetic of a divided country turns the quiet choices of a few parties into the deciding question. Whether a government emerges will depend less on the count than on which lines politicians are willing to cross, and what they are prepared to say they did when they crossed them.
Netanyahu Falls Short of Knesset Majority, Leaving Arab-Led Parties With a Pivotal Role
Neither side can form a government without securing additional support.
Mark
Netanyahu's bloc got 53 seats. Why does that count as a loss when Likud is the largest party?
Mimi
Because 61 is the line, and he is eight short. His bloc also dropped from 64 seats in 2022 to 53 now.
Luke
Worth noting that those bloc totals are the outlet's own groupings, not official committee categories. And the figures are pending certification.
Mark
So why are the Arab-led parties so central?
Mimi
With 19 seats, a record, they sit between two blocs that are each short. The opposition's 48 plus 19 would pass 61 on paper.
Luke
On paper is the key phrase. Bennett and Liberman have both pledged not to rely on Arab parties, and without them Yashar and the Democrats hold only 29.
Mark
Are the two Arab parties acting as one?
Mimi
No. Ra'am's Abbas says he would join an Eisenkot-led coalition if viable. The Joint List's Tibi says no ministries, but possible outside backing for commitments on crime and Bedouin home demolitions.
Luke
Those are stated positions from before the final count, and positions can shift in negotiation. Nobody has confirmed a deal.
Mark
What does a government actually need?
Mimi
More votes for than against in a confidence vote. In 2021 Bennett-Lapid got in 60 to 59 with one abstention.
Luke
But a minority government like that struggles to pass laws afterward. What happens next is unknown until the president starts consultations.
Il Polso
- Netanyahu's bloc sits eight seats short of the 61 needed, and no camp can govern alone.
- Two Arab-led parties, holding a record 19 seats between them, have suddenly become the hinge of the entire outcome.
- Party leaders have publicly ruled out the very partnerships the arithmetic seems to demand, creating a tangle of red lines.
- Eisenkot's Yashar and Netanyahu each need outside or coalition support, and the president's consultations are the next test of who can gather it.
Early in the week after Israel's vote, the final count arrived and settled little: a Knesset of 120 seats in which Netanyahu's bloc holds 53, the opposition 48, and two Arab-led parties 19, with no camp able to reach the 61 that a government requires. It is a familiar kind of Israeli stalemate, where the arithmetic of a divided country turns the quiet choices of a few parties into the deciding question. Whether a government emerges will depend less on the count than on which lines politicians are willing to cross, and what they are prepared to say they did when they crossed them.
Israel's Central Elections Committee published the final count early Friday, and it solved almost nothing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc won 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while the opposition took 48. The remaining 19 went to two Arab-led parties, the Joint List and Ra'am. Neither side reaches the 61 needed for a majority, and turnout, at 77.9 per cent, was the highest in decades.
The Arab-led parties now sit at the centre of the story. They are separate parties with different leaders, Yousef Jabareen and Mansour Abbas, and their approaches to negotiation may differ. Abbas says Likud has approached him and that he would join an Eisenkot-led coalition if it proves viable. Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List says his party would not seek ministries but might back a government from outside in exchange for commitments on crime and Bedouin home demolitions.
Every major leader has also drawn red lines. Netanyahu calls a government reliant on anti-Zionist Arab parties unthinkable, Liberman refuses to depend on them, and Bennett has pledged not to sit with them. Eisenkot has rejected a minority government relying on them and will not serve under Netanyahu. Golan will not sit with the Haredi parties or with Likud under Netanyahu. Sixty-one seats are not the only route, since a government needs only more votes for than against, but that still requires outside help.
The count is only the first step. After certification, the president will consult the parties and ask a Knesset member to try to form a government. The question now is whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot can assemble more votes for than against, and whether either will accept the 19 Arab-led seats to do it.
Early Friday, Israel's Central Elections Committee published the final count from this week's parliamentary election, and it settled very little. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc won 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The opposition won 48. The remaining 19 went to two Arab-led parties. A government needs 61 seats to command a majority, so neither side can get there alone.
Likud is the largest single party with 27 seats. Its allies are Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism with seven each, and Shas and Religious Zionism with six each. The opposition bloc is led by Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party, which won 21 seats. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad took 12, Yair Golan's Democrats eight, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu seven. Turnout was 77.9 per cent, with 5,716,665 votes cast, which the committee describes as the highest in decades.
The pivotal group is the pair of Arab-led parties: the Joint List with 11 seats and Ra'am with eight. Their combined 19 is a record for Arab parties in Israel's parliament, according to the Associated Press. They are separate parties with different leaders, Yousef Jabareen for the Joint List and Mansour Abbas for Ra'am, and their positions in negotiations may differ. The 2022 election gave Arab-led lists 10 seats, and the Netanyahu bloc has fallen from 64 to 53. Eisenkot's bloc is up two, from 46 to 48. The bloc groupings are an editorial construct, not official categories, and the figures await official certification.
The stated red lines make the arithmetic hard. Netanyahu has called it unthinkable to build a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties, though Abbas says Likud has approached him. Liberman has pledged not to form a government that depends on Arab parties. Bennett has pledged not to sit with them this time, although he led the 2021 government that included Ra'am. Eisenkot ruled out a minority government relying on Arab-led parties before the vote and has not since laid out a framework for working with them. He has also rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation. Netanyahu says partners are welcome without a rotation.
Other doors are open, at least partly. Golan has urged a government of change in partnership with Israel's Arab citizens, but he says he will not sit with the Haredi parties, or with Likud while Netanyahu leads it. Abbas told Channel 12 that everyone is speaking with his party, and that he would join an Eisenkot-led coalition if it proves viable. In 2021 Ra'am became the first Arab-majority party to join an Israeli government. Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List said his party would not seek ministries or formal coalition membership. It would consider backing a government from outside in return for commitments on crime in Arab communities and an end to Bedouin home demolitions.
Sixty-one is not the only route to office. A government must win more votes for than against in a Knesset confidence vote, and parties can join the cabinet, support it from outside, or abstain. The Bennett-Lapid government was sworn in 60 to 59 in 2021, with one abstention. A coalition below 61 would still need outside help to pass laws and survive. There is also a policy clash on the Haredi side: Eisenkot wants a Zionist government committed to military conscription, and United Torah Judaism quit Netanyahu's government over the draft law.
The count is separate from government formation. After certification, the president will consult the parties and ask a Knesset member to try to form a government. The thing to watch is whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot can assemble more votes for than against, and whether either will accept the support of the 19 Arab-led seats.
Citazioni salienti
Everyone is speaking with us.— Mansour Abbas, Ra'am leader, to Channel 12
It is unthinkable to set up a government that relies upon anti-Zionist Arab parties.— Benjamin Netanyahu, as reported by The Times of Israel
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