Netanyahu and Eisenkot Both Claim Momentum as Israeli Election Result Hangs on Arab Parties

Past 3 a.m. in Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu walked onto a stage at Likud's election-night hall looking, by the account of reporters present, reinvigorated. Israelis had just voted in the largest numbers in a generation, and the exit polls said the country was split down the middle. Netanyahu spoke as though he had won, without quite saying so. "We must form a strong right-wing government," he told the crowd.

The numbers did not support a clean claim from either side. Exit polls from Israel's three largest television networks first projected a small lead for the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son was killed in the Gaza war. Updated versions then shifted: one put Netanyahu's bloc narrowly ahead, and the other two showed a tie. Israeli exit polls have a spotty record, especially in close races, and the official count was far off. By nearly 4 a.m., election authorities had tallied almost a million votes, about a fifth of those cast.

What the polls did agree on was that neither bloc could govern alone. Two Arab parties, the socially conservative United Arab List, known as Raam, and the left-wing Joint List, were projected to win as many as 17 or 18 of Parliament's 120 seats, their strongest showing ever. Netanyahu has effectively ruled out including them in a coalition, and Eisenkot and his partners have balked at the idea too. Unless one or more parties defect from a main bloc, neither side has an obvious route to 61 seats.

Mansour Abbas, Raam's leader, said Arab voters, who make up about 20 percent of Israel's population, had turned "frustration and despair" into "hope." He said he wanted to replace Netanyahu's government "in every possible way." Many Arab voters said they were furious over Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and over policies they feel make Palestinians in Israel second-class citizens. Netanyahu made overt appeals to anti-Arab prejudice throughout the campaign. Of the two parties, only Raam has sat in a government, joining Naftali Bennett's short-lived anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021. That outraged many right-wing Jewish voters, who backed Netanyahu after it collapsed about a year later, and he went on to lead the most hard-line government in Israel's history.

Eisenkot took the stage after midnight, embracing members of his Yashar party before flag-waving supporters who hailed him as the next prime minister. "We've made history," he said, and, "Tonight we got the answer: The public wants change." He addressed security chiefs and public servants directly, saying Netanyahu now heads a transitional government that has lost public confidence. "Stand strong and firm against any attempt to challenge you," he said. Citing reports that Netanyahu has pushed for renewed attacks on Iran, he added: "Netanyahu, don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs."

Netanyahu, speaking a few hours later, called the exit polls only a preview and said he awaited official results, but declared Likud the largest party and mocked months of polls that had shown it trailing Eisenkot's. Citing enemies of Israel who have been killed, including Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he said, "Iran is weaker than ever, Israel is stronger than ever," and that with his "friend" President Trump the Iranian threat could be removed for good. Among his allies, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of Religious Zionism argued that parties unable to condemn the Oct. 7 massacre or label Hamas terrorist are "not legitimate actors in Israeli politics." Bennett, whose party is in Eisenkot's alliance, said "The government of Oct. 7 will go home." Some Likud officials privately acknowledged their path to a coalition is narrow.

Several things could still move the picture. Hundreds of thousands of ballots from special polling stations, including military bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies, are not reflected in exit polls; in the previous election they leaned toward Netanyahu's camp. After official totals, President Isaac Herzog will invite the leader he thinks best placed to build a coalition. Analysts are weighing a unity government, though Eisenkot's voters despise Netanyahu, Eisenkot has called him unfit to lead, and neither seems likely to yield the premiership. Eisenkot has also floated a minority government. Counting will take days.