Netanyahu and Eisenkot Both Claim Mandate as Israeli Election Ends in Deadlock

Shortly after 3am on Wednesday, Benjamin Netanyahu stepped in front of cheering supporters at a Jerusalem convention centre and did not say he had won. Israel's prime minister, 77, called for a "strong government of the right" and said the "Jewish and Zionist majority must unite." Exit polls from the first election since the October 7, 2023 attack had left his camp level with its rival and far from power.

The three mainstream Israeli television networks gave each bloc about 51 seats in parliament. A governing majority takes 61. Early projections had briefly favoured the opposition before the numbers drew even. Turnout reached nearly 78 per cent, the highest since 1999, in what was widely treated as a verdict on Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister, who has pulled Israel sharply to the right and launched a wave of wars after the Hamas attack.

His rival is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former military chief and a political novice. Speaking to supporters in Tel Aviv, he said the public had voted for change and that a worthy leader would accept a vote of no confidence and retire from political life that day. He called Netanyahu a caretaker prime minister without a mandate or the people's trust, and told Israel's security establishment it serves the state, not Netanyahu. He also warned: "Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs." Observers say Netanyahu could use a war to push for a unity government. Eisenkot said a second election would be a mistake and promised to work swiftly to form a government.

Netanyahu's own remarks leaned toward security. He listed leaders Israel has killed on his orders and hinted again at readiness for a third bombing campaign against Iran alongside his close ally, US President Donald Trump. "Israel has a unique opportunity with our partner President Trump to forever eliminate the existential threat of Iran," he said.

The biggest gains went to Arab Israeli parties, projected at 17 to 18 seats. Some Arab communities reported near-universal turnout, driven by anger at often derogatory rhetoric from Netanyahu's far-right allies. Netanyahu had warned relentlessly that the minority would dilute the Jewish nationalist direction he has set. Mansour Abbas, a key Arab leader, said the right had "suffered a major loss" and that he was open to working with Eisenkot.

That opening is complicated. Eisenkot said during the campaign that he would not govern with Arab lawmakers, and Netanyahu again suggested a government that depends on Arab votes would lack legitimacy. Arab lawmakers could back Eisenkot in parliamentary votes to sustain a minority government without joining a coalition. If that fails, Israel could head to new elections. Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right figure who according to exit polls gained less than many expected, warned Netanyahu that a unity government with Eisenkot would be "a terrible mistake." Ben Gvir champions the expulsion of Palestinians and would likely be excluded from such a government. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Ben Gvir had succeeded in mobilising votes, but those of Israeli Arabs. "Even if Netanyahu lost, that doesn't mean Eisenkot won," Rahat said.

Eisenkot shares many of Netanyahu's security views and has backed the Gaza offensive that reduced the territory to rubble. He has pledged a more inclusive atmosphere at home and to rein in extremist settlers in the West Bank who have attacked Palestinians with virtual impunity. The son of working-class Moroccan Jewish immigrants, he would be the first prime minister of Middle Eastern or North African descent. Before voting he visited privately the grave of his son Gal, whose death fighting in Gaza drew empathy from many Israelis.

The vote came as Israel grows more isolated abroad, over the war in Iran, the Gaza campaign, soaring settlement construction and West Bank violence. Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over Gaza and domestic corruption charges that could send him to prison if he loses power. Tens of thousands of Israelis are estimated to have flown home to vote. Eilana Zisblit, 55, returned from Canada, where she has lived for almost 30 years, to back a centre-right party in Eisenkot's bloc. She said the country is heading in a very bad direction and must act "now, or the country really won't survive anymore."

What happens next depends on whether Arab lawmakers lend Eisenkot parliamentary support, or whether Netanyahu can find a path to a unity arrangement. Without either, a second election looms.