At a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's Deputy Supreme Allied Commander sounded a measured alarm: Vladimir Putin, worn by the grinding weight of an unresolved war, is growing more willing to gamble — and that recklessness may be the point. The Alliance now faces not the clarity of open conflict, but the deliberate fog of covert provocations, drone incursions, and deniable sabotage designed to test whether collective defense can hold when the enemy refuses to show its face.
NATO warns Putin growing riskier as Russia escalates covert operations in Europe
Moscow may be testing NATO through attacks too deniable to prove
Mark
So Stringer is saying Putin is getting reckless. What does that actually mean in practical terms?
Mimi
He's taking more risks—testing NATO's limits through covert operations rather than direct military action. The worry is that Putin might provoke NATO into an excessive response that splits the Alliance.
Luke
But we should note: Stringer is warning about a risk, not reporting that it's already happened. The provocation he's describing is a possibility, not a confirmed pattern.
Mark
The numbers are striking though—59 incidents to 210 in less than a year and a half. That's a real escalation.
Mimi
Yes, but those 210 include everything from cyberattacks to vandalism to propaganda. They're not all the same kind of threat.
Luke
Exactly. The source lumps them together, which makes the number look more alarming than the breakdown might warrant. We don't know how many are serious versus routine.
Mark
Tusk and Macron seem genuinely worried about false-flag attacks—intentional strikes disguised as accidents.
Mimi
They are. Macron ordered actual contingency planning. That suggests the concern is real enough to drive policy.
Luke
But again, that's a concern about what Russia *might* do, not what it *has* done. The false-flag scenario is plausible, but we don't have evidence it's happening.
Mark
What about the voices saying it's not that bad—the British official, the Latvian president?
Mimi
They're saying Russia is focused on Ukraine, not preparing for war with NATO. That's a different assessment of intent and capability.
Luke
And it's worth noting those are the countries with the most direct exposure. If anyone would see a Russian military buildup, it would be Latvia. The fact that they're not seeing one matters.
Il Polso
- Russian drone and missile crossings into NATO airspace have surged from 59 incidents in March 2025 to over 210, a sharp escalation that spans cyberattacks, arson, sabotage, and influence operations across Europe.
- Poland's prime minister has warned that Russia may deliberately strike NATO territory while disguising the attack as an accident — a calculated ambiguity engineered to paralyze the Alliance's response.
- France has already begun drafting protective plans for critical infrastructure, treating the threat not as speculation but as a logical extension of what Russia is already doing.
- NATO's deputy commander is urging member states to respond with restraint, fearing Moscow's true goal is to bait the Alliance into an overreaction that fractures it from within.
- European leaders remain divided on the severity of the threat — Britain and Latvia assess direct conventional conflict as unlikely, while Baltic and French officials see the gray zone between peace and war as the real battlefield.
At a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's Deputy Supreme Allied Commander sounded a measured alarm: Vladimir Putin, worn by the grinding weight of an unresolved war, is growing more willing to gamble — and that recklessness may be the point. The Alliance now faces not the clarity of open conflict, but the deliberate fog of covert provocations, drone incursions, and deniable sabotage designed to test whether collective defense can hold when the enemy refuses to show its face.
At a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's Deputy Supreme Allied Commander John Stringer delivered a sobering warning: Putin is growing reckless, and that recklessness is deliberate. Rather than urging escalation, Stringer called for caution — arguing that Moscow may be engineering provocations precisely to bait the Alliance into an overreaction that could fracture it from within.
The concern has already moved from theory to policy. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia might strike NATO territory with drones or missiles while claiming the attacks were accidents, using calculated ambiguity to test whether the Alliance would escalate on incomplete information. French President Macron took the threat seriously enough to order contingency plans for protecting critical infrastructure against drone and cyberattacks.
The numbers tell their own story. Incidents of Russian drones and missiles crossing into NATO airspace have jumped from 59 in March 2025 to more than 210 — a category that includes not just military probes but vandalism, arson, sabotage, propaganda, and cyberattacks. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal framed the strategic logic plainly: covert operations are far harder to attribute and respond to than conventional strikes, making them the ideal instrument for probing NATO's collective defense without crossing a clear threshold.
Not every European capital shares the same alarm. British defense officials and Latvia's president both assessed the risk of direct conventional conflict as low, noting that Russian forces remain committed to Ukraine and no unusual military buildup has been observed near NATO borders. What emerges is a portrait of an alliance navigating a new kind of conflict — one that lives below the threshold of war but above the baseline of peace, where the enemy's intent is always deniable and the cost of miscalculation runs in both directions.
At a security conference in Tallinn, Estonia, NATO's Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe John Stringer delivered a stark assessment: Vladimir Putin is growing more reckless and willing to gamble with risk as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on. Stringer urged Alliance members to recognize the danger and respond with caution—a careful calibration meant to avoid the trap he believes Moscow is setting: provoking NATO into an overreaction that could fracture the coalition from within.
The concern is not abstract. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Russia might deliberately strike NATO territory with drones or missiles while claiming the attacks were accidents—a calculated ambiguity designed to test whether the Alliance would treat an intentional strike as an accident, or whether it would escalate based on incomplete information. French President Emmanuel Macron accepted this threat assessment seriously enough to order his government to draft plans protecting critical infrastructure against drone and cyberattacks. The fear is not paranoia; it is the logical extension of what Russia has already been doing across Europe.
The scale of Russian incursions has accelerated sharply. According to tracking data compiled by the Associated Press, incidents of Russian drones and missiles crossing into NATO airspace have jumped from 59 in March 2025 to more than 210. These are not all military probes. The category includes vandalism, propaganda campaigns, influence operations, arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks—a spectrum of covert activity designed to test NATO's cohesion and expose the difficulty of proving intent.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal articulated the strategic dilemma plainly: Moscow may be using these deniable attacks to probe NATO's collective defense principle, knowing that covert operations are far harder to attribute and respond to than conventional military strikes. Michal assessed it unlikely that Russia would launch a direct conventional assault on Europe, given that Russian forces remain committed to Ukraine and NATO's response would be a powerful deterrent. The real threat, in his view, is the gray zone—the space between peace and war where attribution is murky and the threshold for triggering Article 5 is unclear.
Not all European leaders share the same level of alarm. A British defense official, speaking anonymously, stated that the United Kingdom does not assess Putin as seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs similarly noted that Russian military activity remains focused on Ukraine, with no observable buildup of forces near Latvia's borders. These voices suggest that while covert operations are real and concerning, the risk of conventional war between Russia and NATO remains low.
What emerges from these statements is a picture of European leaders grappling with a new form of conflict—one that sits below the threshold of traditional warfare but above the baseline of peacetime. Russia is testing boundaries, probing responses, and creating incidents that are difficult to prove and therefore difficult to respond to without risking miscalculation. The Alliance's challenge is to recognize these operations for what they are while avoiding the overreaction that Stringer warned against. The next months will show whether NATO can thread that needle.
Citazioni salienti
Moscow may test NATO's collective defense principle through covert attacks that are difficult to prove— Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal
Putin may seek to provoke NATO into an excessive response while trying to sow divisions among allies— NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe John Stringer
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