NATO warns Putin growing more dangerous as covert attacks surge across Europe

Vladimir Putin is becoming more reckless, according to NATO's deputy commander in Europe, and the evidence is written across the continent in sabotage, drone incursions, and cyberattacks that officials struggle to definitively attribute to Moscow. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer made the assessment at a security conference in Estonia this week, framing Putin's behavior as a calculated effort to fracture Western unity at a moment when his military campaign in Ukraine is grinding forward at enormous cost. The warning reflects a growing anxiety among European capitals that Russia is testing the boundaries of what it can do without triggering a direct NATO response—and that those boundaries may be shifting.

The scale of covert Russian activity has accelerated sharply. An analysis tracking incidents across Europe documented 59 cases in March 2025; by the most recent count, that number had climbed to more than 210, spanning vandalism, arson, sabotage, cyberattacks, and propaganda operations. In August, German authorities discovered a drone carrying explosives positioned next to a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig airport, fueled and ready. British officials announced they had foiled a Russian plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company burned down; a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded. The incidents form a pattern, though attribution remains deliberately murky—Russia's intelligence services recruit operatives online, sometimes without their knowledge they are working for Moscow, making proof elusive and responsibility nearly impossible to establish.

Stringer acknowledged the ambiguity that makes these operations so effective. The line between accident and intent, he told the Associated Press, is razor-thin. Drones enter NATO airspace after being knocked off course by Russian GPS jamming or electronic countermeasures meant to disrupt Ukrainian strikes. Russia could escalate such activity, he said, but has not yet decided to do so. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron have both warned that Moscow might deliberately strike NATO territory while claiming the attacks were unintended—a scenario that would test NATO's collective defense commitment without crossing the threshold that would trigger a unified military response. France has begun preparing defenses for critical infrastructure against drone and cyberattacks. A British defense official, speaking anonymously, assessed that Putin is not actively seeking direct confrontation with NATO, a view shared by officials in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, who have historically pushed for a harder Western line on Russia.

Yet the motive behind the campaign is clear. Stringer said Putin is "looking at a whole number of things" to create fractures among NATO allies because his war in Ukraine is not going well. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal described Putin as "a rat in the corner," increasing activity in Europe to weaken Western backing for Kyiv while Moscow faces mounting pressure. The costs are staggering: Russia has suffered more than half a million dead on the front lines, according to Britain's defense chief, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton. Meanwhile, Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have created fuel shortages across 80 of Russia's 83 regions. None of this has moved Putin to reconsider his objectives in Ukraine.

Michal said the high level of Russian malign activity "is here to stay" until Putin changes his military goals, and that the most effective deterrent is sustained Western support for Ukraine. The European response remains divided. Some leaders warn that Putin may test NATO's collective defense pact through bolder action; others urge restraint, cautioning that overreaction is precisely what Putin wants. Stringer emphasized the need for NATO members to remain aware of the "febrile environment" without falling into the trap of escalation. When asked by the Associated Press in May whether Russia was conducting a covert campaign against the West, Putin replied simply: "Name one proven fact." The question now is whether the accumulation of incidents—each one difficult to prove, each one plausible as accident—constitutes a pattern that demands response, or whether that very ambiguity is the point.