In the Baltic region, where geography compresses the distance between rival powers into something uncomfortably intimate, two military encounters unfolded in close succession: NATO jets destroyed an unidentified drone over Lithuania, and a Russian warship fired flares at a Danish military helicopter over Baltic waters. Neither incident produced casualties, yet both carry the weight of a larger story — one in which the line between deterrence and provocation grows thinner with each passing encounter, and the absence of reliable de-escalation channels leaves interpretation to assumption and assu