Some journeys are measured less by their destination than by the courage to keep several roads open until the ground itself reveals which one can bear weight. NASA has chosen this patience in its effort to return astronauts to the moon, deliberately postponing a decision between SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander while both remain in contention for a 2028 landing near the lunar south pole. The choice reflects a hard-earned humility after years of delay, and a recognition that a single point of failure is a luxury a nation returning to the moon cannot afford.
NASA Keeps SpaceX and Blue Origin in Contention for 2028 Moon Landing, Deciding Only After Testing
Whichever goes first, both are planning lunar landings in 2028.
Mark
Why would NASA hold off on choosing a lander? Isn't that risky this close to 2028?
Mimi
It's the opposite, in their framing. Keeping both SpaceX and Blue Origin in play means a delay at one company doesn't automatically sink the Artemis IV landing.
Luke
Worth noting that's NASA's stated rationale. The reporting doesn't show how long the agency can wait before waiting itself costs time.
Mark
What does Artemis III actually prove, since it never goes to the moon?
Mimi
Docking and systems work. The crew boards Blue Moon Mark 1 and tests life support and communications, then docks with a Starship that has no crew cabin.
Luke
So the two tests aren't equivalent. Only one lander gets entered. Parsons argues SpaceX's Dragon experience covers the gap, but that's his assessment, not a demonstrated result.
Mark
And the schedules each company is promising?
Mimi
Musk talks of weekly Starship flights next year. Blue Origin expects to resume launches late this year or early 2027 after the May pad explosion.
Luke
Those are company projections. SpaceX has reached orbit once in 13 flights. Refueling at scale hasn't been shown yet, and 2028 depends on it.
Mimi
Which is why both must land unpiloted first, before any astronauts fly.
Luke
Right, and that requirement is the firmest thing in the plan. The dates around it are still hopes.
El Pulso
- NASA is refusing to pick a moon lander yet, keeping SpaceX and Blue Origin both in the race for a 2028 landing.
- Blue Origin is still reeling from a May pad explosion that destroyed a booster and badly damaged its launch site.
- Artemis III, set for next year, will rehearse docking with both landers in Earth orbit before any crew heads toward the moon.
- Success hinges on rapid heavy-lift launches and large-scale in-orbit refueling, milestones neither company has yet proven.
- Pressure is mounting from a self-declared space race with China, which aims to land taikonauts by 2030.
Some journeys are measured less by their destination than by the courage to keep several roads open until the ground itself reveals which one can bear weight. NASA has chosen this patience in its effort to return astronauts to the moon, deliberately postponing a decision between SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander while both remain in contention for a 2028 landing near the lunar south pole. The choice reflects a hard-earned humility after years of delay, and a recognition that a single point of failure is a luxury a nation returning to the moon cannot afford.
On Friday, NASA laid out a revised Artemis plan built around a decision it is deliberately postponing: which company's vehicle will carry the first American astronauts back to the moon. The agency will wait until testing shows which lander is the clearer choice, keeping both SpaceX and Blue Origin in contention for a 2028 landing. The purpose is a fallback. If either company faces supply chain trouble, serious technical failure or long delays, the mission will not depend on one provider alone. Artemis Program Manager Jeremy Parsons said NASA intends to wait as long as possible, with dedicated teams working alongside both companies.
The nearer test is Artemis III, targeted for next year. Four astronauts will fly only into Earth orbit to rehearse procedures close to home, coordinating three powerful rockets launched in quick succession. They will first dock their Orion capsule with Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 1, float inside to test life support and communications, then undock and dock with a SpaceX Starship upper stage that carries no crew cabin. Parsons noted that SpaceX's experience with Dragon gives it confidence, but NASA still needs to learn how the small Orion behaves beside the much larger Starship.
The two architectures differ greatly. SpaceX must launch a propellant depot, tanker flights and the lander, then fill the depot through multiple tanker trips before the lander departs for the moon. Blue Origin will launch three transfer stages and a lander, which carry the vehicle to lunar orbit before descent. Both depend on assumptions still unproven: reliable heavy-lift launches, large-scale refueling in orbit, safe landings in poor lighting, and successful uncrewed landings before any astronaut flies. Musk has promised Starship flights at a much faster cadence, and Shotwell said a major refueling demonstration is planned for early next year. Blue Origin is building a new pad and expects flights to resume late this year or early 2027.
Behind the engineering lies a contest. NASA hopes to reach the south pole, where ice could supply water, air and fuel, before China's planned 2030 landing. Administrator Jared Isaacman called the effort extraordinarily difficult and said this mission would not repeat Apollo's flags and footprints. The next signals to watch are Starship's launch rhythm, the refueling test and Blue Origin's return to flight.
On Friday, NASA officials laid out a revised Artemis plan built around one decision the agency is deliberately putting off: whether the first American astronauts to return to the moon will land in a SpaceX or a Blue Origin vehicle. The agency says it will wait until testing shows which lander is the clear choice, and it is keeping both companies in the running for a 2028 landing.
The approach is meant to create a fallback. If either company runs into supply chain problems, serious technical trouble or other setbacks that could cause long delays, the Artemis IV landing near the moon's south pole would not depend on that company alone. Artemis Program Manager Jeremy Parsons said the agency intends to wait as long as possible before choosing, with dedicated NASA teams working alongside both providers. Whichever goes first, he said, both are planning lunar landing missions in 2028.
The nearer-term test is Artemis III, which NASA and its contractors are working to launch next year. Four astronauts will fly into Earth orbit, not toward the moon, to rehearse procedures close to home. The mission requires three of the world's most powerful rockets to launch in quick succession, including NASA's Space Launch System, and the crew will manage separate rendezvous maneuvers with two different test vehicles.
First comes Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 1. The astronauts will dock their Orion capsule to it, open the hatches, and float inside to test life support, communications and other critical systems. After two days they will undock and fly Orion to a SpaceX Starship upper stage, docking at its top with a passive docking mechanism. That Starship is an essentially off-the-shelf vehicle with no crew cabin, so the astronauts will not be able to enter it. Parsons said SpaceX already has deep experience with life support, communications and navigation through its Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft, and that the company is making solid progress on the lunar variant of Starship. Even so, he said, NASA will learn how the much smaller Orion behaves when paired with the much larger Starship.
The two landing architectures differ considerably. For SpaceX, the company would launch three versions of its Starship upper stage: a propellant depot, a tanker and the lander. All three burn nearly all their supercold methane and liquid oxygen just reaching low-Earth orbit, so multiple tanker flights must fill the depot, which then fuels the lander for departure toward the moon. As the tanker flights wrap up, an SLS rocket launches Orion to dock with the waiting lander, which boosts both spacecraft to the moon. In lunar orbit, two astronauts descend, conduct several moonwalks, lift off and rejoin Orion for the trip home.
Blue Origin's plan uses its New Glenn rocket to launch three transfer stages, followed by the Blue Moon Mark 2 lander. The transfer stages dock with the lander and carry it to lunar orbit, while SLS sends Orion directly to the moon. Two astronauts move into the lander, a transfer stage lowers it to a lower lunar orbit, and it descends to touchdown. After surface operations it launches back to Orion for the return to Earth.
The 2028 date rests on assumptions. SpaceX and Blue Origin must show reliable, rapid heavy-lift launches, large-scale refueling in Earth orbit, and safe landings on uncertain terrain in poor lighting. Both must also complete successful unpiloted moon landings before astronauts are allowed to fly. SpaceX has flown 13 suborbital Super Heavy-Starship tests since 2023, with only the most recent reaching orbit. Even so, Musk told investors this week that Starship should fly weekly in the first half of next year and twice weekly or more in the second half, with multiple launches per week from Texas and Florida by the end of 2027. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said the first large-scale in-orbit refueling demonstration is planned for early next year. Blue Origin is still recovering from a May explosion that destroyed a New Glenn booster and heavily damaged its launch pad. A new pad is under construction, flights are expected to resume late this year or in early 2027, and the company aims to land two unpiloted Blue Moon Mark 1 craft on the moon by the end of next year.
The stakes include a self-declared race with China, which plans to land taikonauts by 2030. NASA wants to reach the south pole region first, where ice deposits might supply rocket fuel, air and water. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman called the effort ambitious and extraordinarily difficult, saying years of past decisions cost time and resources, and that this will not be a repeat of Apollo's flags and footprints. What to watch next: Starship's launch cadence, the first refueling demonstration, and Blue Origin's return to flight.
Citas Notables
We intend to wait as long as possible to make a decision about which provider is ultimately going to provide the first American astronauts back to the moon in 2028.— Jeremy Parsons, NASA Artemis Program Manager
This will not be a repeat of the flags and footprints.— Jared Isaacman, NASA Administrator
Quieres la nota completa?
Lee el original en CBS News ↗
Science & Space