Najib's House-Arrest Bid Strains Anwar's Coalition, but Analysts Doubt It Will Topple Him

On January 6, thousands of people gathered outside the Court of Appeal in Putrajaya, where a case brought by jailed former prime minister Najib Razak was being heard. Inside, his lawyers presented a letter that has since shaken the government of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. It purported to confirm an addendum from the former king, decreeing that Najib should serve the rest of his prison sentence at home.

The letter was signed by the Comptroller of the Pahang palace. Its appearance led politicians and political activists to ask why the government had, in their framing, been "hiding" it from the public for nearly a year. The prime minister and his Cabinet ministers answered that no supplemental letter was discussed at the January 2024 Pardons Board meeting. The Federal Territories Pardons Board later confirmed that account. Even so, analysts quoted by The Straits Times say the damage was done.

The background is a long one. Najib began a 12-year sentence in August 2022 for corruption linked to the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal. In January 2024, the Pardons Board, chaired by then king Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah, reduced both his sentence and his fine. Najib has since campaigned to serve the remainder at home. In December 2024, his lawyers filed a fresh bid for house arrest, claiming the Sultan had issued the addendum. The High Court had dismissed that same claim in July 2024.

The fallout was debated on January 9 at a panel in Singapore organised by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, part of its annual Regional Outlook Forum. The session was titled "Malaysia – Madani at the Mid-Term: Closing Window for Reform?" and moderated by ISEAS Senior Fellow Dr Lee Hwok-Aun. Anwar calls his administration the Unity government, or the Madani government, and presents it as responsive and inclusive.

Selangor lawmaker Wong Chen of Anwar's Pakatan Harapan (PH) said the January 6 rally was probably the opposition's "last chance" to seize power. "Thank God it's done," he said. He believes the government can survive a full term if the economy keeps growing, and said Malaysians are tired of the political conflicts of recent years. The next general election must be held by February 2028.

Opposition MP Saifuddin Abdullah of Pahang, from the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, disagreed. He called the house-arrest issue the "beginning of the last chance" to topple the government. The opposition would need to wait for the next election, he said, but if the problems grow large enough, nobody could blame them for a move to take over the government before the term ends.

Analysts see the rally as an attempt to drive a wedge between PH and its partner, the Umno-led Barisan Nasional, which Najib led until he stepped down in 2018. Experts say Umno is unhappy with what they describe as Anwar's wishy-washy backing of Najib. They still expect it to stay in the ruling coalition, pushing Najib's case from within and keeping its place in government, though that would weaken the prime minister. Both panellists also agreed that Anwar faces mounting pressure because his promises on fighting corruption, easing the cost of living and improving governance have yet to be realised.

Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat told The Straits Times that Najib is dragging the Madani government down, daring Anwar to accept mutual destruction by splitting Umno. But he identified Najib's ultimate weakness: he has no public support among Malays. That contradicts his loyalists' claim that he can revive Umno, since middle-ground Malays reject the party over corruption.

The question now is whether Umno's frustration stays inside the coalition. The analysts quoted expect it to, with Anwar weakened but still in office as the 2028 deadline approaches.