Before the year turns, a decision may settle who will guide one of the largest share offerings ever attempted, and the quiet favorite is Morgan Stanley, a bank whose fifteen-year bond with Elon Musk runs through Tesla, Twitter and the people closest to him. Yet nothing is final: three banks are still circling the same prize, and SpaceX itself speaks of a 2026 listing only as a hope bound to the moods of markets it cannot command. It is the familiar human story of a visionary weighing the wish to stay private against the appetite of the public, and of trusted relationships quietly shaping who g
Morgan Stanley Emerges as Front-Runner for Lead Role in SpaceX IPO, Sources Say
Nothing is settled. The bake-off is still underway.
Mark
Why is the lead-left position such a big deal?
Mimi
It's the top spot among the underwriters, the bank that effectively runs the syndicate. Goldman held it when Tesla went public in 2010, so it's a role with a precedent in Musk's world.
Mark
And Morgan Stanley is the favorite now?
Mimi
That's the reporting. Three sources call it the leading contender, partly because of ties going back at least 15 years: Tesla's IPO, the Twitter financing, and Anthony Armstrong moving to xAI as CFO.
Luke
Let me slow that down. Three people said front-runner, but four said nothing is certain. No banks have been selected, and every source is anonymous. The relationships are documented; the conclusion that they decide the outcome is the sources' read.
Mark
Does the IPO even definitely happen?
Mimi
No. CFO Bret Johnsen's memo says whether it happens, when, and at what valuation are highly uncertain.
Luke
Right, and the $25 billion figure is from earlier Reuters reporting, not from SpaceX. Same with the idea that Starlink could be included. Those are people's descriptions of plans that may change.
Mark
What's the money for?
Mimi
Starship's flight rate, AI data centers in space, and a lunar base called Moonbase Alpha, per the memo.
Luke
Worth noting those are stated intentions for hypothetical proceeds. Whether any of it happens depends on an offering nobody has confirmed.
Der Puls
- Morgan Stanley is pressing ahead as the frontrunner in a tense three-way contest with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
- The lead-left seat, which steers the entire banking syndicate, hangs in the balance with no bank yet chosen.
- SpaceX is racing to raise more than $25 billion, a sum that could make its listing one of the largest in history.
- The offering could still be delayed or abandoned, so the timeline rests on fragile market conditions.
- Musk's lead bank choice could arrive before year-end, with the full syndicate to follow.
Before the year turns, a decision may settle who will guide one of the largest share offerings ever attempted, and the quiet favorite is Morgan Stanley, a bank whose fifteen-year bond with Elon Musk runs through Tesla, Twitter and the people closest to him. Yet nothing is final: three banks are still circling the same prize, and SpaceX itself speaks of a 2026 listing only as a hope bound to the moods of markets it cannot command. It is the familiar human story of a visionary weighing the wish to stay private against the appetite of the public, and of trusted relationships quietly shaping who gets to hold the pen.
A decision on who will lead one of the largest stock offerings in history may come before 2026, and according to people familiar with the talks, Morgan Stanley is best placed to win it. Its long relationship with Elon Musk is the main reason. The bank helped take Tesla public in 2010, advised on his Twitter purchase and led its financing, and has supplied key figures to his companies, including executives now running his AI venture and managing his personal affairs.
Nothing is settled. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are still in a selection process known as a bake-off, and the banks have declined to comment. SpaceX is preparing for a possible 2026 offering that could raise more than $25 billion, but its CFO has been candid that timing, valuation and even the decision itself remain uncertain. Musk, who long preferred to keep the company private, appears to have changed course as SpaceX's valuation climbed and Starlink became its biggest earner.
The money would fund rocket development, space-based AI data centers and a planned lunar base, and the IPO might include Starlink as well. The question now is whether Musk names his lead banks before the year ends, and whether Morgan Stanley claims the top seat.
A decision about who will run one of the largest stock offerings in history may be made before the calendar turns to 2026, and according to people familiar with the discussions, Morgan Stanley is the bank best placed to win it. Three sources told Reuters that the bank's long relationship with Elon Musk gives it an edge in his choice of banks for a SpaceX initial public offering.
Nothing is settled. A selection process, known on Wall Street as a bake-off, is still underway among a select group of banks that includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Four people familiar with the matter said there is no certainty Morgan Stanley will land the coveted lead-left underwriting position, the role that effectively runs the syndicate of banks. Three of those people said the bank is widely viewed as the leading contender, but no banks have been picked and the talks remain fluid. All the sources spoke anonymously because the discussions are confidential. Morgan Stanley, Goldman and JPMorgan declined to comment, and SpaceX did not respond to a request.
The case for Morgan Stanley rests on history. Musk's ties to the bank go back at least 15 years. It was among the banks that took Tesla public in 2010, alongside Goldman Sachs, which held the lead-left role, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank. Morgan Stanley later advised Musk on his 2022 purchase of Twitter, now X, and led the financing for it. More recently, Musk tapped Anthony Armstrong, one of the Morgan Stanley bankers on the Twitter deal, to be chief financial officer of his AI venture xAI. Another former Morgan Stanley banker, Jared Birchall, has advised Musk on Wall Street dealings and runs Excession, the Austin, Texas family office that manages Musk's personal assets, as Reuters has previously reported.
The offering itself is still a plan, not a certainty. In a staff memo last week, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen told employees the company was preparing for a public offering in 2026. He wrote that whether it happens, when, and at what valuation are all still highly uncertain, but that if the company executes brilliantly and markets cooperate, an offering could raise a significant amount of capital. The people familiar with the process echoed that caution: the IPO depends on market conditions, and SpaceX could delay it or drop it altogether. Musk could pick the lead banks before year-end, two of them said, with the full syndicate likely finalized afterward.
Reuters has previously reported that SpaceX is seeking to raise more than $25 billion, a sum that would make this one of the biggest public listings ever anywhere. The move surprised some observers, since Musk has long said he prefers to keep SpaceX private. People familiar with his thinking say the company's rising valuation and the success of Starlink changed the calculation. Starlink, a network of nearly 10,000 satellites serving consumers, governments and businesses, has made SpaceX the world's largest satellite operator and remains its top revenue generator. There had been earlier speculation about a separate Starlink listing, but these people say the IPO could include both businesses, though plans may change.
Johnsen's memo laid out where the money would go: raising the flight rate of Starship, the next-generation rocket still in development; deploying AI data centers in space, which would tie SpaceX more closely to the AI boom; and building "Moonbase Alpha," a lunar surface base Musk has mentioned. SpaceX already holds a $4 billion contract in NASA's Artemis program to land astronauts on the moon with Starship. Musk's longer-held goal is sending humans and robots to Mars, with Starlink revenue helping fund Starship, which is also meant to serve as a Mars transport system. Meanwhile, Starlink is expanding into wireless with Starlink Mobile, a name the company trademarked in October.
There is a political thread too. While serving as a government efficiency czar under President Donald Trump, Musk pushed for a stronger American focus on Mars and advocated for former associate Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman became NASA chief on Tuesday.
The next marker to watch is whether Musk names his lead banks before the year ends, and whether Morgan Stanley gets the lead-left seat.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Whether it actually happens, when it happens, and at what valuation are still highly uncertain.— Bret Johnsen, SpaceX CFO, in a staff memo
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