On the eve of a midterm that will decide how much of a president's agenda can survive the next two years, the American electorate has already spoken in large part, with nearly 59 million ballots cast before the polls even opened. Markets, meanwhile, have translated the uncertainty into probabilities, weighing what a divided or unified Congress would mean for technology, regulation and public spending. Beneath the numbers lies a quieter question about loyalty and change, as some Hispanic voters who once backed the president now hesitate to follow his party down the ballot. What the first return
Midterms Under Way: Nearly 59 Million Vote Early as Democrats Target Congress and Markets Brace
Nearly 58.7 million had already voted before the first polls opened Tuesday
Mark
Why does the early vote number matter so much?
Mimi
Because it's large. About 58.7 million ballots were in before Election Day, against 46 million in 2022. That's more than half of everything cast in the 2022 midterms.
Mark
And Democrats lead in it, right?
Mimi
Among states that track party registration, 12.5 million Democratic ballots to about 9 million Republican.
Luke
That's a count of who voted early, not who wins. Republicans may vote in larger numbers on Election Day, and we don't know that either way.
Mark
What about the JPMorgan odds?
Mimi
They give a Democratic sweep 66 percent and a split Congress 26 percent. The bank thinks a sweep could hit AI stocks briefly over regulation fears.
Luke
Those probabilities come from prediction markets as of November 1. They're not polling, and JPMorgan says they're scenarios, not forecasts. The market moves are the bank's estimates, and some are small, like a 0.25 percent decline.
Mark
And the Hispanic voter numbers?
Mimi
Pew found 24 percent of Hispanic Trump voters from 2024 won't back GOP House candidates, though 65 percent will. Only 11 percent said they'd vote Democratic.
Luke
So the shift is partly away from Republicans, not necessarily toward Democrats. And a survey isn't turnout.
Der Puls
- Nearly 58.7 million early ballots have already been cast, far outpacing the 46 million of 2022, and the rush to vote signals an electorate that refuses to wait.
- JPMorgan gives a 66 percent chance of a Democratic sweep, and traders are bracing for a possible sell-off in AI stocks as the odds of tighter tech regulation grow.
- A quarter of Hispanic Trump voters from 2024 say they will not back Republican House candidates, a fracture that could shift close races in unexpected places.
- Early returns from Kentucky, Indiana and Vermont will arrive after 4:30 am IST, but these Republican-leaning areas may tell little about the national result.
- The decisive signals will come later from Ohio and Maine, where the tightest Senate contests will test whether the markets' scenarios hold.
On the eve of a midterm that will decide how much of a president's agenda can survive the next two years, the American electorate has already spoken in large part, with nearly 59 million ballots cast before the polls even opened. Markets, meanwhile, have translated the uncertainty into probabilities, weighing what a divided or unified Congress would mean for technology, regulation and public spending. Beneath the numbers lies a quieter question about loyalty and change, as some Hispanic voters who once backed the president now hesitate to follow his party down the ballot. What the first returns reveal will be partial, but they will mark the moment the long anticipation becomes a verdict.
The first polls opened in Vermont on Tuesday, and the 2026 midterms began in earnest. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake, and Democrats hope to end Republican control of Congress and check the president's legislative agenda.
Much of the voting was already done. Roughly 58.7 million ballots were cast before Election Day, about 31.9 million in person and 26.8 million by mail, well above the 46 million early votes of 2022. Registered Democrats cast 12.5 million early ballots in states that track party registration, against about 9 million from Republicans, though that describes who voted early rather than who will win.
Wall Street is watching closely. JPMorgan puts a 66 percent chance on a Democratic sweep, which could bring tighter scrutiny of AI companies and data centres and a possible technology sell-off that the bank sees as a buying opportunity. A split Congress or a Republican sweep were judged less likely, and these figures are scenarios rather than forecasts.
The campaign has also unfolded alongside the Iran war, whose estimated $47 billion cost the president has dismissed as "peanuts." Among Hispanic voters, strain is visible: a Pew survey found 24 percent of those who backed Trump in 2024 do not plan to vote for Republican House candidates, and his approval in that group hit a record low in an October Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The first results arrive after 4:30 am IST from Kentucky, Indiana and Vermont, though their Republican strongholds may not reflect the national picture. The real signals will come as Ohio and Maine close and the closest Senate races begin to resolve.
The first polls opened in Vermont on Tuesday, and with them the 2026 midterm elections began in earnest. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. Democrats are trying to break Republican control of Congress, a result that could limit President Donald Trump's legislative agenda.
Much of the voting was already finished. An analysis by the University of Florida counted nearly 58.7 million ballots cast before Election Day, out of roughly 210 million registered voters. Of those, 31.9 million were cast in person and 26.8 million came by mail. In 2022, the last midterm cycle, there were 46 million early votes. The current tally is more than half of the 122 million votes cast in the whole of that election. All 50 states allow mail-in voting, and most also offer early in-person voting.
In states that record party registration, registered Democrats cast 12.5 million early ballots, against about 9 million from registered Republicans. The figure describes who voted early, not who will win.
Markets are watching closely. JPMorgan, drawing on Bloomberg prediction market data as of November 1, laid out four scenarios. It put a 66 percent probability on a Democratic sweep of both chambers, which could raise fears of tighter regulation of AI companies and a sell-off in technology stocks. The bank sees any such drop as a possible buying opportunity, and estimates the S&P 500 could move between a 0.25 percent decline and a 0.50 percent gain.
A split Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate, was given 26 percent. JPMorgan said it could bring more oversight of deficit spending and less risk of impeachment, with a possible S&P 500 gain of 0.50 to 1 percent. A Republican sweep was put at 7 percent, with a possible gain of 1 to 1.25 percent. The least likely outcome, at 1 percent, is Republicans keeping the House while Democrats win the Senate, with a possible gain of 0.25 to 0.75 percent. The bank's figures are scenarios, not forecasts of the result or of market performance.
According to Reuters, options traders are pricing in a 0.8 percent move in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, compared with an average implied daily move of 0.6 percent over the past month. Beyond AI, a Democratic Congress could bring more scrutiny of data centres over electricity and water use, and of banking, cryptocurrency and healthcare. ICICI Bank said the AI investment boom is unlikely to suffer a major setback even so. A divided government could also raise the odds of a shutdown or a debt ceiling standoff.
The campaign has unfolded alongside the Iran war. Trump has dismissed its estimated $47 billion cost as "peanuts," saying the country has generated $25 trillion in wealth since he took office.
There are signs of strain among Hispanic voters. A Pew Research Center survey found that 24 percent of Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 do not plan to vote for Republican House candidates. Sixty-five percent said they would stay with the GOP and 11 percent said they would vote Democratic. A Reuters/Ipsos survey in October put his approval among Hispanic voters at 24 percent, described as a record low.
The first results are expected after 4:30 am IST on Wednesday, November 4, when polls close in Kentucky and Indiana and Vermont begins reporting. Several constituencies in Kentucky and Indiana are Republican strongholds, so those early numbers are unlikely to show the national picture. Ohio closes at 6 am IST and Maine at 6:30 am IST, and the closely contested Senate races will offer the first real signals.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Trump dismissed the estimated $47 billion cost of the Iran war as "peanuts."— President Donald Trump
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