Midterms Live: Republicans Poised to Curb Biden's Power as Key Senate Races Hang in the Balance

A single seat could swing control of the Senate
The Senate is evenly split, and Democrats control it only through Vice President Harris's tie-breaking vote.
Mark

Why does one Senate seat matter so much this time?

Mimi

The Senate is split evenly. Democrats run it only because Vice President Kamala Harris breaks ties, so losing a single seat would change who controls it.

Mark

Which races decide it?

Mimi

Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Ohio. Those were the ones getting the attention.

Luke

Worth saying that Indiana and Kentucky were never in doubt. Early Republican wins tell us little about those six.

Mark

And the history? Does it favor Republicans?

Mimi

The president's party usually loses seats in midterms, and Biden's favorability was in the low 40s. Republicans leaned on inflation and crime.

Luke

That's a pattern, though, not a result. Nothing in this reporting says how the close races will go, and the results were still preliminary.

Mark

What was Biden's argument?

Mimi

He said Republicans threaten democracy, since more than half their candidates repeated Trump's debunked 2020 fraud claims. He also promised to defend retirement, health care and abortion rights.

Luke

The fraud claims are described as debunked. The reporting doesn't give a number beyond that more-than-half figure, so I'd keep it at that.

Mark

And Trump?

Mimi

He teased an announcement on November 15, which is widely expected to be a 2024 run.

Luke

Expected, not confirmed. He only said it would be exciting for a lot of people.

  • First polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky, and Republican incumbents were tracking toward easy wins, signaling an early tilt in the national count.
  • Control of the evenly divided Senate now rests on a few razor-thin contests in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Ohio, where one seat could flip the chamber.
  • Democrats are fighting uphill against historical midterm losses, stubbornly high inflation, crime concerns and Biden's favorability hovering in the low 40s.
  • Trump, voting in Florida, teased a November 15 announcement of a 2024 presidential run, while results remain preliminary and the Senate outcome is still open.

On a November evening in 2022, the American political story turned its attention to the quiet hours when votes begin to speak, with the first results arriving from Indiana and Kentucky as incumbents of the Republican Party moved toward easy victories. Yet the night was not really about those early wins. It was about a republic whose power is split between parties, where a single Senate seat could decide whether a president's agenda keeps its footing or begins to fade. Beneath the tallies lies an older pattern, one in which the party holding the White House often pays a price at the midpoint of a term, and where a former president watches the outcome for clues about his own return.

At 6:00 pm local time on Tuesday, the first polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky, where Republican senators were expected to cruise to re-election, and several did. It was the first hint of a night that could leave the country under divided government and trim President Joe Biden's power.

The stakes reach beyond this single night. A Republican victory could open the way for Donald Trump's White House comeback, and he returned to his familiar claims of fraud after a campaign fought largely over the economy.

Biden's Democrats faced a steep climb. The Senate is evenly divided, and Democrats hold it only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast the tie-breaking vote, so a single seat could swing control. Attention centered on close races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Ohio. History also worked against the president's party, which traditionally loses seats in midterms, and Republicans pressed inflation and crime.

Biden closed by warning that Republicans pose a dire threat to democracy, pointing to candidates who repeat Trump's debunked claims about 2020, and by pledging to defend retirement, health care and abortion rights. Trump, voting in Florida, again teased a November 15 announcement, calling it "a very exciting day for a lot of people." For now the results are preliminary and the Senate is undecided, and that announcement will show whether a good night for Republicans becomes a path back for him.

At 6:00 pm local time on Tuesday, 2300 GMT, the first polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky. In both states, Republican senators were expected to cruise to re-election, and by the account of the live coverage several Republican incumbents did win easily. It was the first sign of an election night that could end with the country under divided government and with President Joe Biden's power scaled back.

The stakes reach past this one night. A Republican victory could clear the way for a White House comeback bid by Donald Trump. He returned to his familiar playbook of airing unfounded claims of fraud, after a campaign that was fought largely over economic issues.

Biden's Democrats faced a steep climb to hold the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Senate is evenly divided, and Democrats control it only because Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote. A single seat could therefore swing control. The attention was on a handful of closely fought races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Ohio.

History was working against the president's party. It has traditionally lost seats in midterm elections, and Biden's favorability ratings were hovering in the low 40s. Republicans pressed him hard on stubbornly high inflation and on crime.

Biden's closing argument had two parts. He warned that Republicans pose a dire threat to democracy, noting that more than half of their candidates have repeated Trump's debunked claims of cheating in the 2020 election. He also vowed that Democrats would defend retirement, health care and the freedom to have an abortion, a right rescinded by a Supreme Court that Trump had transformed.

Trump cast his own ballot in Florida. He again teased an expected announcement of a 2024 presidential run, telling reporters that November 15 "will be a very exciting day for a lot of people."

The results at this stage were preliminary, and control of the Senate was undecided. The next marker is Trump's expected announcement on November 15, which will show whether a good night for Republicans turns into a path back for him.

November 15 will be a very exciting day for a lot of people.
— Donald Trump, speaking to reporters in Florida
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