Urea prices jumped over US$100 per ton in two weeks, reaching US$590/ton, driven by oil and gas costs plus logistics risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Peru imports 43% of fertilizers as urea, with 40% from Russia, 20% from China, and 15% from US—making the nation highly vulnerable to global supply shocks.
El Comercio - Perú
· Mar 17, 2026
· economy
· 4 min de lectura
High
Verificación: Verificado
Middle East tensions push fertilizer prices up 20%, threatening Peru's agriculture sector
Family farmers and low-income consumers face potential food price increases if fertilizer costs remain elevated, affecting food security and agricultural livelihoods.
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Sesgo y Encuadre
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Impacto Geopolítico
🌎
Middle East tensions drive 20% fertilizer price surge, threatening Peru's agriculture sector which imports 900k tons annually and risks food price inflation similar to 2022 crisis.
Escalation Risk
moderate
Confidence
HIGH
Peru
Latin America
Middle East
Global agricultural markets
Energy-producing Middle Eastern states gain leverage over global commodity markets; agricultural-dependent nations like Peru face increased vulnerability to geopolitical shocks in strategic chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz); fertilizer-exporting nations (Russia, China, Morocco) consolidate market influence amid supply chain disruptions.
2022 Russia-Ukraine war triggered 300% fertilizer price spikes and global food crisis; current Middle East tensions show similar supply-chain vulnerability patterns but with less direct producer disruption currently.
Lente Económico
📈
Middle East tensions drive fertilizer prices up 20%, threatening Peru's agriculture sector which imports 900,000 tons annually and risks food price inflation similar to 2022.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
HIGH
Agriculture
Food production and processing
Energy (oil and natural gas)
Logistics and transportation
Retail and consumer goods
Peruvian households face potential food price increases if fertilizer costs remain elevated. Agricultural input costs will rise, likely passed to consumers through higher prices for staple crops. Lower-income households are most vulnerable to food inflation.
Government may need to intervene with fertilizer subsidies or price controls (as in 2022), negotiate strategic fertilizer reserves, diversify import sources beyond Middle East suppliers, or implement agricultural support programs. Central bank may face inflation pressures requiring monetary policy adjustments.