Middle East conflict forces ASEAN to accelerate energy security overhaul

Southeast Asia's energy ministers gathered in Manila this week confronting a problem that has moved from the margins of policy discussion to the center of regional leadership. A prolonged conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has exposed what was always true but easy to ignore: the region depends on the Middle East for more than half the crude oil its refineries process, and that dependence carries a cost measured in dollars per barrel and in the daily lives of workers who move goods and people across crowded cities.

The numbers are stark. ASEAN buys the majority of its crude from Middle East suppliers at a moment when global benchmark prices hover around $100 a barrel. The ASEAN Center for Energy calculated that a severe disruption to those supplies could jeopardize oil volumes equivalent to nearly 28 percent of the region's total oil consumption. That is not a theoretical risk. Attacks on infrastructure and shipping routes in the Middle East have already begun reshaping energy markets. Chinese refiners have suspended oil product exports for October, tightening supply further. The pressure is immediate and visible in the streets.

In Manila, a jeepney driver named Antonio Bandin described the arithmetic of survival. His daily fuel bill has more than than doubled to roughly 2,400 pesos, about $38. "We hardly take anything home anymore," he said, speaking for transport workers across the region whose earnings are being consumed by rising fuel costs. Households face the same squeeze. The crisis has moved energy security from a technical matter discussed by specialists into a priority that commands the attention of ASEAN ministers and national leaders.

The response has two timelines. In the immediate term, energy ministers are reviewing emergency protocols established after crisis talks earlier in the year, including coordinated response mechanisms under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security. The Philippines, which remains under a national energy emergency declaration, is exploring regional fuel-stockpiling arrangements and has indicated willingness to host storage facilities. But analysts are cautious about what such measures can accomplish. Christopher Len, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, framed the distinction plainly: "A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy." Stockpiling may cushion the next crisis, but it does not solve the present one. Alloysius Joko Purwanto, a senior energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, noted that insufficient storage capacity and inventory levels remain obstacles to fully implementing the petroleum security framework.

The longer view points toward structural transformation. Ministers are expected to discuss renewable energy deployment, electric vehicle adoption, and energy efficiency improvements. The International Energy Agency projects that without significant change, Southeast Asia's energy import bill will climb from more than $80 billion in 2024 to approximately $245 billion by 2035. The ASEAN Power Grid, a cross-border electrical network that would integrate the region's power systems, could help reduce that exposure but would require about $27 billion in investment through 2040. Wider electrification, including electric vehicles and biofuels, would lower oil demand and reduce vulnerability to volatile fuel imports.

Philippine Energy Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella told Reuters that the crisis has sharpened focus on resilience, moving energy security from a technical issue to a strategic priority. But the gap between recognition and action remains wide. The current crisis will not be solved by reserves or by plans still being drafted. What the moment demands, according to analysts, is using the shock as a reason to reduce exposure fundamentally, not merely to absorb it. The ministers meeting in Manila are being asked to chart a course that acknowledges both the immediate pressure and the longer work of transforming how Southeast Asia powers itself.