In Manila this week, Southeast Asian energy ministers gathered to reckon with a vulnerability long deferred: the region's deep dependence on oil drawn from a Middle East now fractured by war. With crude prices near $100 a barrel and more than half of ASEAN's supply threading through conflict zones, what was once a technical concern has become a matter of political urgency. The crisis has pressed ordinary lives — jeepney drivers, households, transport workers — into the foreground of a geopolitical argument, making visible the human cost of structural choices made across decades. The question b
Middle East conflict forces ASEAN to accelerate energy security overhaul
Rising fuel prices are reducing household incomes and transport worker earnings, with Manila jeepney drivers reporting fuel bills doubling to $38 per day.
A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy.
Mark
So the core problem is that ASEAN buys more than half its oil from the Middle East, and now there's a war happening there. That's the vulnerability, right?
Mimi
Exactly. And it's not abstract—when supply lines get disrupted or prices spike, it hits people immediately. A jeepney driver in Manila is now spending $38 a day on fuel. That's real money in that economy.
Luke
But I want to be careful here. The source says the conflict "has exposed" vulnerabilities. Were these vulnerabilities not obvious before? Or is it just that the war made them impossible to ignore?
Mimi
Both, probably. Energy security was a technical issue for specialists. The war made it a crisis that affects transport workers and households, so suddenly it's on the agenda of national leaders.
Mark
And the solution they're talking about—the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement—is that something that can actually work?
Mimi
It's designed to coordinate emergency responses across the region. But there's a real constraint: ASEAN doesn't have enough storage capacity to stockpile fuel at the scale they'd need.
Luke
So when the source says ministers are "reviewing" APSA, they're really reviewing whether it's even implementable given the infrastructure they have?
Mimi
Right. And even if they build the storage, analysts are saying that's just a buffer for the next crisis. It doesn't solve the structural problem.
Mark
Which is?
Mimi
ASEAN is too dependent on imported energy. The long-term fix is renewable energy, electric vehicles, electrification. But that takes decades and billions of dollars.
Luke
The IEA projection—energy import bill going from $80 billion to $245 billion by 2035—is that contingent on no structural change, or is that their baseline forecast?
Mimi
It's explicitly contingent on no structural change. If ASEAN actually transitions to renewables and electrification, that number would be much lower.
Mark
So this week's meetings in Manila—what are they actually deciding?
Mimi
They're reviewing immediate measures like the APSA framework and regional stockpiling. But the real question is whether they'll commit to the long-term transition that could actually reduce exposure.
Luke
And we don't know yet whether they will?
Mimi
Not from this reporting, no. We know they're discussing it. We don't know what they'll actually fund or implement.
Il Polso
- Middle East conflict has exposed ASEAN's critical dependence on imported crude, with over 50% of regional oil supply now at risk from attacks on infrastructure and shipping routes.
- In Manila, jeepney driver Antonio Bandin's daily fuel bill has more than doubled to $38, capturing in one life the economic pressure rippling across millions of households and transport workers region-wide.
- Chinese refiners suspending October oil exports have tightened supplies further, compounding an already acute crisis at the worst possible moment for energy-import-dependent economies.
- Ministers are elevating the long-dormant ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement from theory to active agenda, signaling a shift in political will — though storage shortfalls and coordination gaps remain serious obstacles.
- Analysts warn that stockpiling is a buffer, not a strategy: without structural investment in renewables, grid integration, and electrification, Southeast Asia's energy import bill could balloon from $80 billion to $245 billion by 2035.
In Manila this week, Southeast Asian energy ministers gathered to reckon with a vulnerability long deferred: the region's deep dependence on oil drawn from a Middle East now fractured by war. With crude prices near $100 a barrel and more than half of ASEAN's supply threading through conflict zones, what was once a technical concern has become a matter of political urgency. The crisis has pressed ordinary lives — jeepney drivers, households, transport workers — into the foreground of a geopolitical argument, making visible the human cost of structural choices made across decades. The question before the ministers is whether this moment of pain will produce lasting change, or merely better preparations for the next disruption.
Energy ministers from across Southeast Asia convened in Manila this week to face a vulnerability their region can no longer defer: more than half of ASEAN's crude oil originates in the Middle East, and the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has turned that dependence into an acute crisis. With global oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel, every strike on infrastructure or shipping lane sends shockwaves through economies already under strain.
The human cost is immediate and visible. In Manila, jeepney drivers — the lifeblood of Philippine public transport — are joining protests as fuel bills double. Antonio Bandin now spends roughly 2,400 pesos, about $38, on fuel each day, leaving little behind. Across the region, households are absorbing price volatility they have no power to control, a pressure sharpened further by Chinese refiners suspending oil product exports for October.
The ministerial agenda reflects how quickly the stakes have shifted. The ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, long treated as a theoretical framework, has moved to the center of emergency discussions. Philippine Energy Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella confirmed that energy security has transformed from a specialist concern into a priority for national leaders — a shift that could finally unlock political will and resources.
Yet the obstacles are real. The ASEAN Centre for Energy estimates that a severe Middle East supply disruption could threaten oil volumes equal to nearly 28% of the region's total consumption. Regional fuel stockpiling is the proposed cushion, but analysts note that ASEAN lacks the storage infrastructure to make it meaningful in the near term. Senior fellow Christopher Len offered a pointed clarification: a reserve is a buffer, not a strategy.
The longer horizon is where the structural argument lives. Without fundamental change, the IEA projects Southeast Asia's energy import bill will rise from over $80 billion today to roughly $245 billion by 2035. The ASEAN Power Grid, electrification, renewables, and biofuels represent the path toward genuine resilience — but they demand sustained investment and political commitment at a scale the region has not yet demonstrated. What Manila may reveal is whether ASEAN treats this crisis as a temporary disruption to be cushioned, or as a signal that the old model of energy dependence has finally run out of time.
Energy ministers from Southeast Asia gathered in Manila this week to confront a problem that has become impossible to ignore: their region's dangerous dependence on oil flowing through a war zone. The ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has exposed a structural vulnerability that ASEAN nations can no longer treat as a technical matter for specialists. More than half the crude oil that feeds the region's refineries comes from the Middle East, and with global prices hovering around $100 a barrel, every attack on infrastructure or shipping route sends shockwaves through economies that can least afford them.
The immediate pressure is acute. In Manila, jeepney drivers—the backbone of public transport in the Philippines—are taking home almost nothing after fuel costs. Antonio Bandin, who drives a jeepney, joined protests last week as his daily fuel bill more than doubled to about 2,400 pesos, roughly $38. Across the region, households are feeling the squeeze, and transport workers are bearing the weight of price volatility they cannot control. The crisis has also been sharpened by Chinese refiners suspending oil product exports for October, tightening supplies further at a moment when ASEAN can least afford it.
What the ministers are reviewing this week reflects how quickly the conversation has shifted. The ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security, or APSA, was discussed in emergency talks earlier this year, but it remained largely theoretical. Now it has moved to the center of the agenda. The framework calls for coordinated emergency responses across the region—essentially, a way for ASEAN nations to act together when supply shocks hit. The Philippine Energy Undersecretary, Felix Fuentebella, told Reuters that energy security has transformed from a technical issue into a priority for ministers and national leaders. That shift matters. It means resources and political will may finally follow.
But the obstacles are substantial. The ASEAN Centre for Energy has warned that a severe disruption to Middle East supplies could put at risk oil volumes equivalent to nearly 28 percent of the region's total oil consumption. The proposed solution—building regional fuel reserves and stockpiles—sounds straightforward until you confront the reality: ASEAN lacks the storage capacity to make it work. Alloysius Joko Purwanto, a senior energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, flagged this gap during a webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Philippines, which remains under a national energy emergency, is exploring regional fuel-stockpiling arrangements and could host future storage projects, but analysts are cautious about what such measures can actually achieve in the present moment.
Christopher Len, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, offered a clarifying distinction: "This is more about preparing for the next crisis. A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy." That distinction cuts to the heart of what ministers are really wrestling with. Short-term stockpiling might cushion the blow of the next supply shock, but it does not solve the underlying problem. ASEAN remains structurally exposed because it imports most of its energy. The long-term conversation—the one that will determine whether the region can actually reduce that exposure—centers on renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency.
The numbers are sobering. The International Energy Agency estimates that without structural change, Southeast Asia's energy import bill will balloon from more than $80 billion in 2024 to approximately $245 billion by 2035. The ASEAN Power Grid, a proposal to integrate the region's electrical networks across borders, would require about $27 billion in investment by 2040. Wider electrification, including electric vehicles and biofuels, could curb oil demand and reduce vulnerability to volatile fuel imports. But these are long-term projects, and they require sustained political commitment and capital investment at a scale that ASEAN has not yet demonstrated.
What makes this moment different is that the crisis has forced the conversation from the margins to the center. Ministers are expected to discuss both the immediate measures—the APSA framework, regional stockpiling—and the structural shifts that could genuinely reduce exposure. Len's point was direct: "We should actually use this shock as a lesson to reduce exposure, not only to cushion it." The question now is whether ASEAN nations will treat this as a temporary disruption to be managed, or as a signal that the old model of energy dependence is no longer sustainable. The meetings in Manila will reveal which path the region is actually prepared to take.
Citazioni salienti
Energy security has moved from a technical issue to a priority for ASEAN ministers and leaders.— Philippine Energy Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella
We should use this shock as a lesson to reduce exposure, not only to cushion it.— Christopher Len, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
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