MethaneSAT Data Reveals Oil and Gas Methane Emissions 50% Higher Than Official Estimates

A satellite built to watch the world's methane leaks has stopped transmitting, but not before sending back a year's worth of data that upends what we thought we knew about oil and gas emissions. MethaneSAT, an $88 million spacecraft launched in 2024 by the Environmental Defense Fund, lost contact with Earth about a year into its mission. Before it went silent, the satellite had collected measurements across 45 oil and gas producing regions accounting for roughly half of global onshore production. What those measurements revealed is stark: methane emissions from these regions are running 50 percent higher than official inventories report, including the figures the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses to track the nation's climate pollution.

The Permian Basin, straddling West Texas and southeast New Mexico and serving as the world's largest oil-producing region, emerged as the single largest source. The satellite measured methane pouring from the basin at roughly 410 metric tons per hour. To put that in perspective, the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter—a voluntary pledge signed by 56 of the world's largest publicly traded and state-owned energy companies, including ExxonMobil, Shell, and Saudi Aramco—commits those firms to cutting their collective methane intensity to just 0.2 percent by 2030. Even the basins with the lowest emission rates detected by MethaneSAT were releasing methane at levels several times higher than that industry target.

The disparities across regions tell their own story. In the Appalachian Basin of the eastern United States, methane losses amounted to 0.6 percent of all gas brought to market. Cross the world to Iraq's Widyan Basin, and that figure jumps to more than 20 percent. These variations reflect different production profiles—regions focused on oil tend to have different leak patterns than those prioritizing natural gas—but they also expose how much room exists for improvement. A Stanford earth science professor who reviewed the findings noted that low-producing wells, typically older and less efficient, tend to leak far more than their output justifies. In eight U.S. regions alone, 40 percent of all methane emissions came from wells responsible for less than 7 percent of gas production.

The satellite data arrived at a moment when regulatory momentum has shifted. The Trump administration has rolled back methane rules adopted during the Biden years, and state-level policy now matters more than ever. New Mexico, which adopted strict methane regulations in 2021 requiring operators to capture 98 percent of natural gas by the end of 2026, showed measurably better results than neighboring Texas. MethaneSAT detected methane intensity of around 1.2 percent on the New Mexico side of the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian, compared to roughly 3.1 percent on the Texas side, where no such regulations exist. Yet even this apparent success comes with a caveat: production has surged in both states, meaning total emissions continue climbing despite the intensity improvements.

The loss of MethaneSAT itself represents a setback for climate accountability. The satellite was designed to provide what ground-based measurements and aircraft flyovers cannot: a comprehensive, consistent global view of where methane is escaping and how much. Steven Hamburg, the Environmental Defense Fund's chief scientist and the project's lead, emphasized that this kind of empirical data is essential for holding the industry accountable and rewarding genuine progress. The satellite's loss means there will be no continuous record of how emissions change over time in any given region, and offshore gas fields—including Qatar's massive natural gas deposits and the liquefied natural gas operations that supply Europe and Japan—remain largely unmeasured by satellite technology.

The data released in early February has not yet undergone peer review, and some researchers have flagged limitations. The report provides single figures for each basin's emissions intensity rather than ranges with uncertainty bounds, as academic studies typically do. Some of the variation between regions may reflect how emissions are calculated—whether against gas brought to market or total energy produced from both oil and gas. A Cornell ecologist questioned whether any of the basins measured would qualify as genuinely low-methane under emerging international standards. Yet independent researchers who have studied methane for years said the MethaneSAT findings align with what they have long suspected: that official inventories substantially undercount what is actually escaping into the atmosphere.

On the ground in New Mexico's Permian Basin, a thermographer documenting oilfield emissions for a nonprofit organization said he has seen little progress despite the state's regulations. Thousands of abandoned and operational wells in disrepair continue emitting methane around the clock, he reported, and flares—devices meant to burn excess gas but which are not 100 percent efficient—remain commonplace. As production expands, he said, emissions will continue to rise. The Environmental Defense Fund has indicated it may eventually launch another satellite, but for now, the world has lost its most powerful tool for watching methane escape from oil and gas fields. Other nations' satellites, including those from Japan and the European Union, are beginning to fill the gap, but the loss of MethaneSAT leaves a hole in the global monitoring network at a moment when the data it collected suggests the problem is far worse than anyone officially acknowledged.