After a rare stretch of warmth that briefly lifted Irish spirits, the island now turns back toward its more familiar rhythms. Met Éireann has signalled a significant shift this week, with low pressure reclaiming the skies and above-average rainfall expected to test the north and east in particular. The weeks that follow offer a modest reprieve before the forecast dissolves into the honest uncertainty that defines the edge of the Atlantic. Ireland, as ever, reminds its people that fine weather is a visitor, not a resident.
Met Eireann forecasts 'significant change' as May heatwave prospects fade
The heatwave prospects are fading into rain and uncertainty
Mark
So we had a few nice days last week, and now it's all falling apart?
Mimi
Not falling apart exactly, but yes—the pattern is shifting. That high pressure that brought the dry, warm weather is moving away. Low pressure is moving in, and that means rain, especially in the north and east.
Mark
For how long?
Mimi
This coming week is the worst of it. By the week after—May 20th onward—things settle down again and temperatures climb back above normal. But it's not a heatwave. It's just... better than this week will be.
Mark
What about the thunderstorms mentioned?
Mimi
They're possible this week and again later, especially if heavy showers develop. The real hazard is the accumulation—enough rain in some places to trigger warnings and cause spot flooding.
Mark
So no May heatwave, then.
Mimi
Not looking like it. There might be warmer days scattered through late May and early June, but nothing sustained. The signals after the 27th get very uncertain anyway.
Mark
What should people actually do with this forecast?
Mimi
If you're planning outdoor activities this week, have a backup plan. Next week looks better. After that, just watch the updates—the forecasters themselves aren't confident about what happens in early June.
Il Polso
- The warm, sunny spell that graced Ireland last week — temperatures nudging the low twenties — is already over, replaced by an advancing wall of low pressure and unsettled skies.
- From May 13th, heavy rainfall will sweep across the country, with the north and east facing the greatest accumulations and a genuine risk of thunderstorms and localised flooding.
- Forecasters are watching rainfall totals closely enough that weather warnings may be issued, making this more than a routine grey week.
- Relief arrives around May 20th as high pressure rebuilds from the east, bringing settled conditions, above-average temperatures, and a southeasterly airflow — though coastal fog and scattered showers will still linger.
- Beyond late May, confidence in the forecast weakens: above-average temperatures are still expected, but heavy showers and uncertain pressure patterns mean no sustained heatwave is on the horizon.
- By early June, the outlook becomes a genuine shrug — no dominant signal, near-normal conditions for most, and the quiet Irish wisdom that you should always keep a jacket within reach.
After a rare stretch of warmth that briefly lifted Irish spirits, the island now turns back toward its more familiar rhythms. Met Éireann has signalled a significant shift this week, with low pressure reclaiming the skies and above-average rainfall expected to test the north and east in particular. The weeks that follow offer a modest reprieve before the forecast dissolves into the honest uncertainty that defines the edge of the Atlantic. Ireland, as ever, reminds its people that fine weather is a visitor, not a resident.
Last week, Ireland enjoyed something close to a gift — several consecutive days of sunshine, temperatures in the low twenties, and the rare pleasure of sitting outside without bracing for rain. After a wet and difficult start to the year, it felt significant. It won't last.
Met Éireann is calling what follows a "significant change." From Monday, May 13th, high pressure retreats eastward and low pressure settles close to Irish shores. Rain and showers become the dominant story, with above-average rainfall expected nationwide and the north and east bearing the heaviest burden. Temperatures will edge slightly above normal in those regions, but the real concern is accumulation — enough to prompt warnings, with thunderstorms possible and localised flooding a genuine risk.
The week of May 20th to 26th offers a reprieve. High pressure rebuilds to the east, a southeasterly airflow takes hold, and more settled, warmer conditions return across much of the country. Rainfall will be roughly average for most areas, though Atlantic coasts may see a little more. Scattered heavy showers, overnight mist, and coastal sea fog will still feature, but the overall picture improves.
After that, certainty fades. Late May into early June brings above-average temperatures but also above-average rainfall driven by heavy, thundery showers rather than steady downpours. By the first week of June, forecasters offer no strong signal at all — conditions close to normal for most of the country, with some warmer spells possible on southern and eastern coasts and wetter tendencies in the northeast.
The brief heatwave hopes kindled by last week's sunshine are quietly shelved. Wet days are coming, better days will follow in late May, and after that, Ireland's weather does what it has always done — keeps you guessing.
Last week, Ireland caught a break. The sun stayed out for several days straight, temperatures climbed into the low twenties, and people began to wonder if May might finally deliver the kind of weather that makes you want to sit outside with your coffee. After a wet and miserable start to the year, that stretch felt like a gift. But it won't last.
Met Eireann is calling what comes next a "significant change." Starting Monday, May 13th and running through the following Sunday, the country will slip into unsettled conditions as high pressure retreats eastward and low pressure settles in close to Irish shores. Rain and showers will become the dominant pattern. The forecasters expect above-average rainfall across the country, with the north and east bearing the brunt of it. Temperatures in those regions will climb slightly above normal, but elsewhere the mercury will settle closer to what you'd typically see for mid-May. The real concern isn't warmth—it's water. Rainfall accumulations could become significant enough to warrant warnings, and thunderstorms are possible, bringing the risk of localized flooding.
The following week, May 20th through the 26th, offers a reprieve. High pressure will rebuild to the east, ushering in more settled conditions and above-average temperatures across much of the country. A southeasterly airflow will dominate. Most areas will see roughly average rainfall, though the Atlantic coasts may catch a bit more than usual. Even so, heavy or thundery showers could still develop in scattered spots, and overnight mist and fog will be common. Sea fog may creep onto the southern and eastern coasts as well.
Beyond that, the picture grows hazier. From May 27th through June 2nd, forecasters see less certainty in the signals. High pressure appears to be weakening again, but temperatures are still expected to run above normal. Above-average rainfall is likely across much of the country, driven by heavy or thundery showers rather than steady rain. Then, moving into early June—June 3rd through the 9th—the forecast becomes genuinely uncertain. There's no strong signal pointing toward either high or low pressure dominating. Most of the country will likely see temperatures and rainfall amounts close to normal for that time of year, though southern and eastern coasts might catch some warmer spells, and the northeast could see above-average rain.
So the heatwave prospects that some might have harbored after last week's pleasant stretch are fading. The next few days will be wet and unsettled. There will be better weather in the latter part of May, but nothing that looks like sustained heat. By early June, the forecast becomes a shrug—which, in Irish weather terms, usually means you should prepare for anything.
Citazioni salienti
Low pressure centred close to the country will lead to rain and showers over the country with a mostly easterly or variable airflow— Met Eireann
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