In two German state elections held on a single Sunday, Friedrich Merz's CDU suffered losses that carry the weight of historical rupture — failing, for the first time ever, to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and shedding nearly a third of its support in Berlin. What rose to fill the vacuum was not a rival mainstream force but the political extremes: the far-right AfD surging to 38% in the northeast, the left-wing Left Party doubling its share across both states. Germany, long a symbol of postwar democratic stability, is now navigating a moment in which the parties governing t
Merz's CDU suffers historic defeats as AfD surges in German state elections
Parties on the political fringes now command more support than the ruling parties
Mark
So the CDU actually fell below 5% in one state? That's genuinely historic?
Mimi
Yes. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, they failed to clear the threshold for the first time in the party's entire history. It's a seismic moment for a party that's been central to German politics for decades.
Luke
But we should be careful here—those are projections, not final results. The article says "projections suggest," so the actual certified numbers might shift slightly, though probably not enough to change the fundamental story.
Mark
And the AfD is now the strongest party in these states?
Mimi
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, yes—38% of the vote. In Berlin, they're third at 16%, but they nearly doubled their support from the last state election in 2021. The pattern is consistent across both: far-right gains, mainstream parties losing ground.
Luke
The classification matters too. The article notes the AfD is classified as "partially far-right extremist" by Germany's constitutional protection office. That's not opinion; that's an official designation. But it's also worth noting that classification doesn't prevent them from running or winning seats.
Mark
Why is Merz staying the course on these reforms if they're so unpopular?
Mimi
Because the underlying problems are real—health care, pensions, long-term care costs are genuinely rising and unsustainable. He's betting that once the reforms take effect and stabilize the system, voters will understand. But that's a long-term bet, and he's losing ground in the short term.
Luke
That's Merz's framing, and it may be true. But the article doesn't give us independent analysis of whether these reforms are actually necessary or whether they're the right approach. We're hearing his justification, not a full accounting of the policy debate.
Mark
What happens if the left-wing parties actually form governments in both states?
Mimi
In Berlin, Elif Eralp would become mayor—the first from the Left Party. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Schwesig would likely continue as premier but in coalition with the Left and Greens. The CDU would be out of power in both places.
Luke
And at the federal level, Merz's coalition with the SPD still technically governs, but the opinion polls show they've lost majority support. So he's weakened both locally and nationally. That's the real pressure point.
Mark
Is there any chance the AfD actually gets into a coalition with the CDU?
Mimi
Weidel said on election night that the CDU's refusal to work with them has failed, and she stated their long-term goal is coalition talks. But the CDU has maintained a clear line: no cooperation with the AfD. Whether that holds under sustained pressure is the question.
Luke
Right now it's a statement of intent from Weidel, not a negotiation. The CDU's position is firm, but we don't know how long that can hold if the AfD keeps gaining and the CDU keeps losing. That's the forward-looking tension the article points to.
Der Puls
- The CDU's failure to clear the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania marks the first time in the party's history it has been shut out of a state parliament, a wound that goes beyond electoral arithmetic.
- The AfD's surge to 38% in the northeast and its growing foothold in Berlin signal that protest is hardening into preference — voters are not just leaving the mainstream, they are choosing the margins with conviction.
- Merz's governing coalition with the SPD has lost its majority in national polls, leaving two parties running Germany with less democratic mandate than two parties locked out of federal power.
- The chancellor is pressing forward with deeply unpopular health, pension, and long-term care reforms even as the electorate sends unmistakable signals of rejection, betting that future results will vindicate present pain.
- The AfD's opposition to military aid for Ukraine adds a foreign policy dimension to the crisis, threatening Germany's role as a pillar of Western support at a moment when that role is most consequential.
In two German state elections held on a single Sunday, Friedrich Merz's CDU suffered losses that carry the weight of historical rupture — failing, for the first time ever, to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and shedding nearly a third of its support in Berlin. What rose to fill the vacuum was not a rival mainstream force but the political extremes: the far-right AfD surging to 38% in the northeast, the left-wing Left Party doubling its share across both states. Germany, long a symbol of postwar democratic stability, is now navigating a moment in which the parties governing the country command less public support than those excluded from power — a tension that rarely resolves quietly.
On a Sunday evening that will be difficult for Germany's political establishment to forget, Friedrich Merz acknowledged what the numbers had already made plain: his CDU had suffered a historic defeat. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the party fell below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation — an event without precedent in the party's history. In Berlin, where the CDU had led the state government, support collapsed by nearly a third. It was the third major state election loss for Merz's party in two weeks.
What made the results more than a story of CDU decline was what replaced it. The AfD, classified by Germany's constitutional protection office as partially far-right extremist, surged to 38% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, finishing first. In Berlin it claimed 16%. On the other end of the spectrum, the left-wing Left Party doubled its share in the northeast and became Berlin's largest single party. The mainstream was not simply losing ground — it was being squeezed from both sides simultaneously.
Merz governs in coalition with the center-left SPD, but that partnership now faces a legitimacy problem. Nationwide polls show the governing coalition no longer commands a majority, with the AfD and Left Party together outpolling the two parties actually running the country. In Berlin, the most likely outcome is a left-wing coalition that could make Elif Eralp — daughter of Turkish exiles — the city's first Left Party mayor. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, state premier Manuela Schwesig, who finished second behind the AfD with 36%, signaled her intention to form a stable democratic government with left-wing partners.
Beneath the electoral turbulence lies a government pursuing reforms that few voters seem to want. Merz has staked his chancellorship on overhauling health care, long-term care, and pensions — changes that will raise costs for many Germans and push them toward private retirement savings. He has acknowledged these measures will bring burdens and uncertainty, yet insists they are necessary. The AfD's growing strength in eastern Germany also complicates his foreign policy, as the party's opposition to military support for Ukraine threatens Germany's commitments at a critical moment. Merz has promised backbone and resolve. Whether either will be enough is a question the next elections will begin to answer.
Friedrich Merz stood before cameras on Sunday evening, his composure visibly strained, and delivered a blunt assessment of what had just happened to his party. The Christian Democratic Union had suffered what he called a disaster in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, one of two state elections held that day. In Berlin, he offered a softer word—reasonable—but the numbers told a harsher story. The CDU, which has anchored German politics for decades, had been dealt a historic blow.
In the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, projections showed the CDU had fallen below the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation. It was the first time in the party's history that this had happened. In Berlin, where the CDU had led the state government, support collapsed by nearly a third, dropping to around 20%. These were not marginal setbacks. They were ruptures. And they came as the third major electoral defeat for Merz's party in just two weeks—Saxony-Anhalt had already voted on September 6, delivering another drubbing.
The real story, though, was not the CDU's fall but what rose in its place. The Alternative for Germany, the AfD, which Germany's constitutional protection office has classified as partially far-right extremist, nearly doubled its support in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, finishing first with 38% of the vote. In Berlin, it claimed 16%, becoming the third-largest party. Across both elections, the pattern was unmistakable: voters were abandoning the mainstream parties that governed Germany and turning toward the political extremes. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the left-wing Left Party also doubled its share, reaching about 25%. In Berlin, it surged to become the largest single party.
Merz, who took office as chancellor in 2025, governs in coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party. That partnership now faces a legitimacy crisis. In nationwide opinion polls, the governing coalition no longer commands a majority. The AfD and the Left Party—parties on opposite ends of the political spectrum—now command more support than the two parties actually running the country. The SPD's results on Sunday were mixed: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, state premier Manuela Schwesig, in office since 2017, finished second with 36%, narrowly behind the AfD. In Berlin, the SPD's vote share collapsed by a third to just 12%.
The most likely outcome in both states is a coalition of left-wing parties. In Berlin, this would make Elif Eralp, the daughter of Turkish exiles, the first mayor from the Left Party. She had campaigned on a vision of an affordable city where people of all backgrounds could live with dignity. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Schwesig signaled her commitment to forming a stable democratic government, likely with the Left Party and the Greens. Meanwhile, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel used election night to declare that the CDU's strategy of refusing to work with her party had failed, and she reiterated the AfD's long-term goal of coalition talks with the CDU itself.
Behind these electoral tremors lies a government pursuing an unpopular agenda. Merz has staked his chancellorship on sweeping reforms to health care, long-term care, and pensions—measures designed to control rapidly rising costs. The health care agreement already reached will make drugs and dental prosthetics more expensive and scale back family insurance coverage. The pension reforms will push Germans toward increased private retirement savings. These are not policies designed to win back voters. Merz acknowledged that the changes would bring burdens and new uncertainties for many people, yet he insisted the reforms must proceed. "I want to move our country forward," he said. "I am also firmly convinced that the success of our reforms will not only improve our society but also boost our self-image and our image in the world."
The pressure extends beyond domestic policy. The AfD, particularly strong in eastern Germany, opposes military support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion. As the party gains ground, Merz's ability to sustain Germany's foreign policy commitments grows more precarious. The chancellor is acutely aware of the bind he faces. In his statement after the elections, he acknowledged the difficulty ahead: "What needs to be done now requires backbone, resolve and patience. I will muster that—as chairman of the CDU and, above all, as the chancellor of our country." Whether that resolve will be enough to hold his coalition together while pursuing reforms that voters have already begun to reject remains an open question.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
We can't sugarcoat the results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—it was a disaster.— Chancellor Friedrich Merz, on election night
My vision for Berlin is an affordable Berlin where everyone—regardless of their background, religion, language or income—can lead a good life in dignity.— Elif Eralp, Left Party candidate for Berlin mayor
What needs to be done now requires backbone, resolve and patience. I will muster that—as chancellor of our country.— Friedrich Merz, assessing the path forward
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