Merz vows to stay as German chancellor despite CDU's historic collapse in state elections

Friedrich Merz stood before cameras on Sunday night and announced he would not be stepping down. Germany's chancellor had just watched his Christian Democratic Union collapse in two state elections—one to the far right, one to the left—and the political ground beneath him was shifting. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a former communist region in the northeast, his party managed just 4.9% of the vote, falling below the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. It was the worst result the CDU had ever recorded in a state election. Merz called it a disaster. He was not wrong.

The Alternative für Deutschland, the anti-immigration party with ties to the Kremlin, won that same election with 38.3%—more than double what it had achieved there before. In Berlin, the capital, the far-left Die Linke was on course to win with roughly 25% of the vote, five points ahead of the sitting CDU government. The AfD posted double-digit results there as well. These were not isolated setbacks. They were the third and fourth demonstrations in recent weeks that German voters were abandoning the political center in favor of the extremes.

Merz has been chancellor for sixteen months. He took office in May 2025 at the head of a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats, promising to restore economic strength and reduce the AfD's appeal. Neither has happened. Only one in ten Germans now say they are satisfied with his leadership. The eastern states, where industrial decline and economic anxiety run deepest, have become a graveyard for his party. The AfD leads national opinion polls at around 30% and has made the destruction of the CDU one of its explicit political goals.

In his speech that night, Merz acknowledged the CDU had suffered from a lack of momentum flowing from Berlin—the capital's unpopularity was dragging down his party everywhere. But he said he would remain chancellor and party chair. He would push forward with reforms on taxes, healthcare, pensions, and reducing bureaucracy. He framed the moment in larger terms: Germany faced profound economic upheaval, public discourse had grown harsher and more divided, and trust in institutions was eroding. "Trust in our country's institutions is waning and is being actively undermined by radical parties on both the left and the right," he said. He argued that reform itself was the answer—that economic modernization and institutional renewal could inoculate Germany against the appeal of authoritarianism.

The AfD's co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, had already mocked Merz before the speech, calling on him to resign and celebrating what he called a "very clear result" for his own party. The mathematics of German politics, however, work against the far right. Although the AfD came first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the other parties have maintained a "firewall"—an agreement not to work with it—that will likely keep it out of power in that state. Replacing Merz as chancellor would be constitutionally difficult; any successor would need to command a parliamentary majority, and failure to secure one could trigger a new national election.

The timing is bitter for Merz in ways that cut deeper than polling numbers. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was the home constituency of Angela Merkel, who governed Germany for sixteen years before stepping down. Merz, her longtime rival within the CDU, has lasted barely a year longer than she did in the chancellery. The state's Social Democratic premier, Manuela Schwesig, distanced herself during the campaign from a pension reform that her party backed in Merz's coalition government—a sign of how toxic the federal government has become even to its own allies.

In Berlin, Die Linke's expected victory could bring Elif Eralp to power as the capital's first leader of Turkish origin. The party has campaigned on expropriating corporate landlords to address the housing crisis, a radical position that reflects how far left the debate has shifted in the capital. Nearly 2.5 million Berliners were eligible to vote; in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the figure was just over 1.3 million. These are not trivial electorates, and their rejection of the CDU sends a clear signal.

Merz's decision to fight on rather than cede the party leadership preserves his path to the 2029 national election, but it also leaves him leading a government that voters have plainly lost faith in. Germany is struggling with deindustrialization, sluggish growth, and soaring energy costs. If Merz were to fall and the AfD gained further momentum, it would embolden nativist movements across Europe—France, Italy, Spain, and Poland all head into elections next year with far-right parties surging. The stability of Europe's largest economy, and the broader question of whether liberal democracy can hold in the face of authoritarian appeal, now rests partly on whether a deeply unpopular chancellor can somehow reverse course.