Merz canceled his New York trip, citing need for his presence in Berlin as CDU faces electoral losses to the far-right AfD in state elections. Internal party sources report fading faith in Merz's leadership, though cabinet members and state premiers have publicly backed him ahead of Sunday's crisis meeting.
Merz cancels UN trip as CDU faces internal crisis over election losses
If they do not demonstratively express their confidence in him, his situation will become very difficult.
So Merz canceled the UN trip because of internal party trouble. How bad is it really?
Bad enough that he's staying home to manage a crisis meeting instead of representing Germany at the General Assembly. The AfD beat the CDU decisively in Saxony-Anhalt, and now there's real talk inside the party about whether he should step down.
But we should be careful here—the sources saying people want him out are described as "internal party sources." That's not the same as named CDU figures openly calling for his removal. The public backing from Wadephul and Söder is concrete and on the record.
What about the polling numbers? Those seem pretty damning.
They are. The CDU is at 18 to 20 percent nationally, way down from last year's federal election. And a new poll shows 78 percent of the public thinks he's not the right person for the job. Even a majority of CDU supporters doubt him.
That's a real number, but it's one poll. The INSA poll. We don't know if other pollsters are showing the same thing, and we don't know the margin of error or when exactly it was conducted. It's significant, but it's not the whole picture.
Is there any chance he actually survives this?
His allies are publicly backing him, and he's determined to serve his full term. But the fact that he's preparing for a formal confidence vote suggests even he thinks it's possible he won't make it.
Right—and that's the real story. Not that he's definitely going to be ousted, but that the possibility is now real enough that his own team is preparing for it. That's a shift.
What happens if he loses the confidence vote?
The CDU would need to choose a new chancellor, which would likely trigger a government crisis. The coalition with the SPD could fall apart.
Though we don't actually know what the CDU's formal process is for removing a chancellor, or whether a confidence vote is binding. The reporting says it's "reportedly under consideration," which means it's being discussed, not that it's definitely happening.
So Sunday is the real test.
Absolutely. The state elections come in, then the party meets that night. If the premiers don't visibly rally behind him, his position becomes "very difficult," as the political scientist said.
And that's the thing to watch. Not whether he's definitely out, but whether the state leaders—the ones who actually control the party machinery—stand with him or stay silent.
Le Pouls
- Merz canceled his UN General Assembly trip to remain in Berlin
- CDU lost decisively to the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt state elections on September 6
- CDU polling at 18-20% nationally; 78% of public doubt Merz's suitability per INSA poll
- Party leadership crisis meeting scheduled for Sunday evening after state elections
- Merz insists he will serve his full four-year term despite mounting pressure
Merz canceled his New York trip, citing need for his presence in Berlin as CDU faces electoral losses to the far-right AfD in state elections. Internal party sources report fading faith in Merz's leadership, though cabinet members and state premiers have publicly backed him ahead of Sunday's crisis meeting.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz canceled his UN General Assembly trip due to mounting pressure from poor CDU election results and internal party doubts about his leadership. He faces a critical party meeting Sunday as confidence in his chancellorship erodes.
Friedrich Merz will not be going to New York next week. Germany's chancellor has canceled his planned attendance at the United Nations General Assembly, according to government sources who told news agencies on Tuesday that his presence is required in Berlin. The decision marks a sharp reversal from earlier plans and signals the depth of the political crisis now consuming his chancellorship.
The cancellation comes as Merz's Christian Democratic Union faces a reckoning after the far-right Alternative for Germany swept state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, a state of only 1.7 million people. The AfD's victory has triggered a cascade of doubt within the CDU itself. Internal party sources report that faith in Merz is eroding, with some figures openly suggesting he should step down. The party now faces the prospect of failing to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which votes this Sunday alongside Berlin—another potential humiliation.
Merz is fighting to hold his position. He has scheduled a party leadership meeting for Sunday evening, immediately after the state election results come in, hoping to shore up support among state premiers and senior figures. On Tuesday, he met with the CDU's parliamentary caucus in Berlin. The chancellor insists he intends to serve his full four-year term. "I was elected for four years and I want to use this time to solve problems," he said, adding that his government must prove it can deliver results with its coalition partner, the Social Democrats. Yet the numbers tell a different story. Nationally, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, are polling at between 18 and 20 percent—far below their performance in last year's federal election and significantly trailing the AfD. A new INSA poll found that a majority of CDU supporters and 78 percent of the broader public no longer believe Merz is the right person for the job.
Merz has received public backing from two senior allies. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and Bavarian state premier Markus Söder both issued statements of support on Tuesday. "We have been elected for a full parliament, we will fulfill our responsibility in this parliament, and we will do it under this chancellor," Wadephul said. Söder called for "togetherness" and "strength," warning that Germany could not afford to falter amid current challenges. Yet such declarations, however forceful, cannot mask the underlying turbulence. Political scientist Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University Bochum told the AFP news agency that Merz's own preparations for the Sunday meeting suggest he now regards an early end to his chancellorship as a realistic possibility. "That is why Merz is trying to rally the influential state premiers behind him in particular," Lembcke said. "If they do not demonstratively express their confidence in him after the elections, his situation will become very difficult."
One option reportedly under consideration is for Merz to seek an explicit declaration of confidence from the party leadership—a formal show of support that could help him head off any challenge from influential CDU politicians at the state level. The CDU's executive committee, which includes all state premiers, is the party's most senior inner leadership body. A clear vote of confidence from that group could stabilize his position, at least temporarily. But the very fact that such a measure is being contemplated underscores how precarious his standing has become.
Merz's cancellation of the UN trip is itself a statement. By remaining in Berlin, he signals that managing his party's internal crisis takes priority over international diplomacy. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is in Washington for talks with his U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth, where the two signed a declaration of intent for cooperation on future arms projects. The contrast is stark: while Merz tends to the wounds of his own party, his government continues its work on the world stage. The question now is whether Merz can survive the coming week. Sunday's elections and the party meeting that follows will determine whether his chancellorship endures or whether the CDU moves to replace him.
Citations marquantes
I was elected for four years and I want to use this time to solve problems. We have to prove that this can be achieved with this coalition.— Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Merz is trying to rally the influential state premiers behind him in particular. If they do not demonstratively express their confidence in him after the elections, his situation will become very difficult.— Oliver Lembcke, political scientist at Ruhr University Bochum