Maine Senate Race Tightens as Trump Concerns Boost Jackson Against Collins

Susan Collins has held Maine's Senate seat for nearly three decades, winning reelection in 2020 by nearly nine points. But a new Fox News poll released Wednesday shows her in a precarious position: trailing her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson by two points, 48 to 46 percent—a margin small enough that it could evaporate entirely within the survey's error range.

The shift reflects a fundamental reordering of voter priorities. More than half of Maine voters, 55 percent, say they worry Collins votes too often in alignment with President Trump. By contrast, only 43 percent express concern that Jackson leans too heavily toward the Democratic Socialist movement. Among independents, the gap widens further: 14 points more worry about Collins and Trump than about Jackson and the left wing of his party.

Jackson himself is a fifth-generation logger from Allagash who previously led the Maine Senate as a Democrat. He became the party's nominee in July after Graham Platner, the original choice, withdrew following an assault allegation. The swap has fundamentally altered the race's character. When Platner was the candidate, 48 percent of his supporters said they were voting mainly against Collins. Now, 61 percent of Jackson's backers frame their choice that way—a vote against the incumbent rather than for the challenger. For Jackson himself, only 36 percent say they're voting to support him, down from 50 percent under Platner.

Collins' own voters tell a different story. Seventy-one percent say they're voting for her, up from 53 percent in June. Just 27 percent frame their choice as opposition to Jackson, down from 45 percent when facing Platner. In other words, the race has become a referendum on Collins in a way it wasn't before. Her unfavorable rating has deteriorated sharply—now underwater by 10 points, compared to just 3 points in June. Jackson's favorable rating sits at 47 percent against 46 percent unfavorable, essentially even.

The underlying issue is Trump. Collins is the only Republican senator seeking reelection this year from a state Trump lost in 2024—Kamala Harris won Maine by 7 points. Trump's own favorability in the state is deeply underwater: 39 percent view him favorably while 59 percent do not. That 20-point gap creates a headwind for any Republican, and Collins cannot fully escape it despite her long record of occasional independence from the party.

Jackson's strongest support comes from liberals, college-educated women, and voters under 35. He leads among men under 45 and union households. Women back him by 4 points overall, though men are split evenly. Collins dominates among conservatives, White evangelical Christians, men 45 and older, and voters without college degrees. She also leads in rural areas and among married voters. Notably, Collins' previous 10-point advantage among men has vanished entirely since Platner was replaced.

Yet the race remains genuinely competitive. Among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, Jackson's edge grows to 4 points. But one in five Jackson supporters say they might change their minds before November, while only one in ten Collins backers express such uncertainty. Nearly 90 percent of partisans back their own party's candidate, with independents narrowly favoring Jackson.

Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who conducts Fox News surveys, offered a measured assessment: "Replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves—opposition to President Trump and a desire for change. The race remains close and I'd never count Collins out, but you have to give a slight edge to the Democrats here." Democrats view Maine as essential to their effort to gain Senate control, making this race one of the year's most closely watched contests.