In the coastal democracy of Maine, a Senate race has become a mirror of the nation's deeper tensions — between local identity and federal allegiance, between loyalty and change. Incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson stand in near-perfect equilibrium, each drawing strength from distinct but equally uncertain coalitions. The contest asks voters a question older than any election cycle: do we choose the familiar hand that has shaped our world, or reach toward the promise of something different?
Maine Senate Race Deadlocked as Voters Split on State vs. National Issues
Collins peels away one in five Trump disapprovers
Mark
So Collins is tied with Jackson in a state that leans Democratic. How is she doing that?
Mimi
She's winning the voters who care most about state-level issues rather than national politics. And she's pulling in one in five people who actually disapprove of Trump. That's a real accomplishment for a Republican.
Luke
But we should be careful here—that one-in-five figure is higher than what other Republicans are getting nationally. That could mean Maine is genuinely different, or it could mean Collins is uniquely positioned. The poll doesn't tell us why those Trump disapprovers are backing her.
Mark
What about Jackson? Where is his strength?
Mimi
He's winning voters who think Collins is too aligned with Trump, people opposed to tariffs, and voters who want change. He also wins most people who say Trump's policies have hurt Maine's economy, and that's actually a majority of the state.
Luke
But here's the problem for Jackson: four in ten Democrats wish someone else had won the primary. That's a real drag on him. And he's running behind the Democratic governor's nominee, which suggests some ticket-splitting is happening.
Mark
Is this race actually close, or does one candidate have an edge we're not seeing?
Mimi
The poll shows them tied, but ten percent of voters say they could still change their minds. In a race this even, that's everything.
Luke
Right. And we should note the margin of error is 4.7 points. So technically Collins could be up five points or down five points. The headline is "deadlocked," but the actual range of outcomes is still quite wide.
Mark
What does Collins's strength with repeat voters tell us?
Mimi
It suggests she's built real loyalty over time. Even in an anti-incumbent year, people who've voted for her before are sticking with her.
Luke
That's true, but it also means Jackson's path to victory probably runs through persuading people who haven't voted for Collins before—or getting those undecideds to break his way. The poll doesn't show us how persuadable either group actually is.
El Pulso
- Collins and Jackson are statistically tied, making Maine's Senate seat one of the most genuinely contested in the country heading into November.
- The race has fractured along an unusual axis — voters are split not just by party, but by whether they believe Augusta or Washington should drive their choice.
- Collins's ability to peel away one in five Trump disapprovers is her most critical lifeline, defying the national pattern for Republican candidates.
- Jackson is bleeding support from within his own party — four in ten Democrats wish someone else had won the primary, a wound that may be costing him the margin he needs.
- With 10% of voters still persuadable and a margin of error spanning nearly five points, the race could break either direction before a single ballot is counted.
In the coastal democracy of Maine, a Senate race has become a mirror of the nation's deeper tensions — between local identity and federal allegiance, between loyalty and change. Incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson stand in near-perfect equilibrium, each drawing strength from distinct but equally uncertain coalitions. The contest asks voters a question older than any election cycle: do we choose the familiar hand that has shaped our world, or reach toward the promise of something different?
Maine's Senate race has settled into a genuine stalemate. A late-September CBS News poll found Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson drawing nearly equal support — a deadlock that reflects a deeper fracture in how Maine voters are approaching the choice itself. Some are voting on what happens in Augusta; others on what happens in Washington. That divide is shaping everything.
Collins holds her ground by winning decisively among state-focused voters and those who believe she would deliver more federal dollars to Maine. More strikingly, she retains one in five voters who disapprove of President Trump — a rate far above what most Republican congressional candidates are achieving nationally. These Trump-skeptical Collins supporters form a crucial buffer against what might otherwise be a more comfortable lead for Jackson.
Jackson draws his energy from voters who see Collins as too aligned with Trump, those opposed to tariffs, and those simply ready for change after her long tenure. He wins most voters who believe Trump's policies have harmed Maine's economy — a view held by a majority of the state. But he carries a structural wound from his own primary: four in ten Democrats and most independents say they wished someone else had been nominated. That dissatisfaction is costing him real votes, and he runs notably behind Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, suggesting meaningful ticket-splitting.
Collins's durability runs deeper still. Even among voters who believe Jackson's policies would leave them financially better off, she captures nearly one in five. And her long Senate tenure, which might repel voters in an anti-incumbent climate, actually anchors her among those who have supported her before.
The survey of 1,144 registered Maine voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points. With ten percent of voters still open to changing their minds, the outcome remains unwritten — and nothing in the data points clearly toward either candidate as Election Day draws near.
Maine's Senate race has settled into a stalemate. A CBS News poll conducted in late September found Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson locked in a dead heat, each drawing roughly equal support from a state that has otherwise tilted Democratic in recent presidential contests. The deadlock persists because the race has fractured along an unusual fault line: voters are genuinely divided on whether to cast their ballots based on what happens in Augusta or what happens in Washington.
Collins has managed to hold her ground by winning decisively among voters who say state issues matter more to them than national ones. She also holds a clear advantage on a question that resonates in Maine: who would bring more federal dollars home. But her most striking achievement is peeling away one in five voters who disapprove of President Trump—a rate substantially higher than what Republican congressional candidates are managing nationally. These Trump-skeptical voters who nonetheless back Collins represent a crucial buffer against what might otherwise be a more comfortable margin for Jackson in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans.
Jackson's coalition draws its energy from different sources. His support is concentrated among voters who believe Collins has aligned herself too closely with Trump, among those specifically opposed to tariffs, and among voters simply seeking change after Collins's long tenure. He also wins most of the voters who say Trump's policies have damaged Maine's economy—a sentiment that a majority of Maine voters share. Yet Jackson faces a structural problem from his own party: four in ten Democrats and most independents say they wish someone else had won the Democratic primary. This lingering dissatisfaction appears to be costing him real votes. He also runs behind Hannah Pingree, the Democratic nominee for governor, whose lead in that race aligns much more closely with Maine's actual partisan lean. Some voters are splitting their tickets, backing Collins for Senate while supporting Pingree for governor.
The poll reveals another layer of Collins's resilience. Even among voters who believe Jackson's policies would leave them financially better off, Collins still captures nearly one in five. And her long service in the Senate, which might be expected to work against her in an anti-incumbent year, actually strengthens her position among voters who have supported her multiple times before. These repeat supporters form a dependable core.
The survey, conducted between September 23 and October 1 with 1,144 registered Maine voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. One detail stands out as potentially decisive: ten percent of voters say they could still change their minds. In a race this close, that undecided slice could determine the outcome. The race remains genuinely competitive, and nothing in the data suggests a clear trajectory toward either candidate as Election Day approaches.
Citas Notables
Collins draws support from voters prioritizing state issues over national ones and from Trump disapprovers at a rate higher than Republican congressional candidates nationally— CBS News/YouGov poll analysis
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