Mahmood Scraps 15-Year Settlement Wait for Care Workers After Labour Backlash

Standing before the House of Commons on Monday, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced she was dropping a central part of her plan to lengthen the wait for permanent settlement: foreign care workers already in the UK will not face a 15-year wait. Those who earn at least £25,000 a year and arrived before May 2025 will keep the five-year route to indefinite leave to remain, known as ILR.

ILR gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK indefinitely and to claim benefits if eligible. It can also be used to apply for British citizenship. Last November, Mahmood announced plans to delay it, citing concern about the number of people nearing eligibility after record post-Brexit net migration under the previous Conservative government, the period nicknamed the "Boriswave". Her original proposal doubled the wait from five years to 10 for most migrants, with some facing 15.

The retrospective element drew fire from inside her own party. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner had said it would "change the goalposts". Several Labour MPs called it "un-British" and warned it could deepen skills shortages, especially in care. Mahmood said care workers who "answered our call" after the Covid-19 pandemic would be given a five-year path. Those who did not meet the conditions of their visa can apply for another five-year visa and seek settlement after that.

The wider framework remains tougher than today's. People earning under £50,000 move to a 10-year path unless exempt. Those earning more than £50,000, and people who have contributed in healthcare and education, such as doctors and teachers, can settle after five years. The highest-rate taxpayers, earning over £125,000, can apply after three. Refugees who arrived by small boat or another illegal route face 20 years if they work or study and 30 if they do not. Hong Kong British nationals overseas, armed forces members, people with a British connection and those on legacy routes including Windrush keep their current paths.

The numbers shifted. The original plan would have delayed 799,000 people from permanent residency; the revised one delays 517,000. Mahmood told the BBC she did not accept that she had u-turned, saying some 500,000 people "will not now settle at five years" and that she had reached "a fair resolution for care workers". She declined to say what scrapping the plan would cost, saying only that the updated plans would save "billions" and that an impact assessment would come in a future announcement. She also would not say whether Prime Minister Andy Burnham had told her to change course on a policy she drew up under his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, saying a consultation had produced a fair settlement.

The cost is the contested point. When she set out the original plans in March, the Home Office, drawing on data from the committee that advises ministers on migration, estimated the existing rules would cost £4.2bn over the lifetimes of 117,000 care workers expected to settle from 2026 to 2030, rising to £9.5bn with adult dependants. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp called that the "cost of today's U-turn" and said Mahmood was "no longer running the government's immigration policy". Sir Edward Leigh, Father of the House, rebuked Philp over the Boriswave, when net migration peaked at nearly one million in 2023: "Some of us don't have amnesia."

The Home Office says net migration added 2.6m people to the population between 2021 and 2024, and estimates that 1.3m to 2.2m people will settle between 2026 and 2030, with its central estimate now 1.9m. Nigel Farage said Mahmood had "shown her true colours" and, citing Home Office estimates that over 200,000 Health and Care visa arrivals would be eligible for citizenship before the next election, claimed a lifetime cost of £50bn. He vowed to review citizenship for all care-visa arrivals and set a minimum 10-year qualifying period. The IPPR think tank said skilled workers and dependants due to settle under current rules would contribute around £115bn net over their lifetimes in tax.

For some, the change still bites. Ashfak Juned, a Bangladeshi chef in Birmingham, told the BBC he was "crying" on learning his wait would now run until 2033. The Refugee Council's Imran Hussain called the 30-year wait "unfair and unworkable". The Liberal Democrats' Max Wilkinson said the reforms were "unravelling", and the Greens' Siân Berry described an "obstacle course of hoops and barriers". The impact assessment is the next test, since the cost of the change is still disputed.