Lynx clinch No. 1 seed as heavy title favorites after Valkyries collapse

The Minnesota Lynx clinched the top seed in the 2026 WNBA playoffs on Tuesday night, though not because of anything they did. Playing without Olivia Miles, their MVP candidate point guard, the Lynx fell apart against the Indiana Fever, trailing by as many as 29 points in the first half before coach Cheryl Reeve benched her starters at intermission. Minnesota lost 96-79, a game that should have mattered enormously. Instead, it didn't matter at all.

What saved the Lynx was Golden State's implosion in Portland. The Valkyries had jumped out to a 17-0 lead against the lottery-bound Fire and seemed poised to keep pace with Minnesota heading into the final day of the season. Instead, they collapsed and lost in overtime, snapping a six-game winning streak and ending any realistic path to the top seed. When that final buzzer sounded in Portland, the Lynx's seeding was locked in, regardless of what happened in their Thursday rematch with Indiana.

It's a strange way to clinch, but the accomplishment itself is substantial. This is the second consecutive year Minnesota has earned the No. 1 seed—the first time they've held that distinction in back-to-back seasons since 2016-17. The path to get here, though, was far from certain. The Lynx lost six rotation players to the expansion drafts that created Portland and Toronto, and they lost Napheesa Collier, their star forward, to season-ending ankle injuries that required surgery on both sides. Expectations outside the organization were muted heading into the summer.

What happened instead was a 10-2 start that set the tone for everything that followed. By the time Collier returned on July 22, the Lynx were already 21-6 and had held first place since July 12. They've had winning streaks of eight and ten games—that latter streak being the longest in the entire league this season. They rank third in offensive rating at 112.3, fourth in defensive rating at 104, and second in net rating at plus-8.2. The betting markets have made them the heavy favorites to win the championship, with odds of -110 at DraftKings, well ahead of the Las Vegas Aces at +650.

Much of that confidence rests on Miles, the No. 2 overall pick who has already established herself as one of the league's elite players. She should be the unanimous Rookie of the Year, though she won't dethrone A'ja Wilson for MVP—Miles is listed at +2700 to win that award, far behind Wilson's -7000. Still, she could receive first-place MVP votes and make the All-WNBA First Team, a remarkable achievement for a rookie. The question now is whether her calf injury, which kept her out of Tuesday's loss to Indiana, will be fully healed by the time the playoffs begin on Sunday.

Reeve may use Thursday's rematch with the Fever as a tune-up for the postseason, especially since her starters got extended rest during Tuesday's blowout loss. But whether Miles plays in that game remains uncertain—it wouldn't make sense to risk her health in a meaningless regular-season finale. The Lynx are chasing their first title since 2017, a year that feels increasingly distant after last season's disappointing semifinal exit. Despite a 34-10 record and league-leading marks in offensive, defensive, and net rating, they blew multiple double-digit leads to Phoenix and lost Collier to injury in the process. This year, with Collier back and Miles in the fold, the organization believes it has the pieces to finish what it started. The playoffs begin Sunday.