Lula Wins Fourth Term in Brazil After Trailing in First Round; Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede

On Sunday night, two scenes unfolded in Brazil at the same moment. In Brasília, supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro filed out of the house where their candidate had watched the count, disconsolate. In São Paulo, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva walked into the streets to celebrate. Lula had won a fourth term with 51.79% of the vote, after losing the first round.

That comeback is a first. No president since Brazil returned to civilian rule in 1985 has been elected after finishing behind in round one. On 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, took 47% to Lula's 45%. The final margin was about 4.4 million votes.

Lula's camp built momentum by concentrating on turnout. In the first round, 33 million people did not vote. On Sunday, abstention fell by more than in any gap between two presidential rounds since 1989. Speaking to jubilant crowds, Lula called the result a loss for negativity and lies and said, "long live democracy." He promised his fourth term would be the best of any president in the country's history, and the one in which he listens most to the Brazilian people.

Flávio Bolsonaro had been poised to give a victory speech. Instead he called the result "inexplicable," said it should be annulled, and has so far refused to recognise it. Observers were not surprised, since his father did the same. On Monday, in an Instagram video, he said police had told him to hand over his passports and that he had been banned from leaving the country.

A legal challenge appears unlikely to succeed. It seems to centre on Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin's unprecedented decision to extend voting nationwide by two hours. Some Bolsonaro supporters note that Zanin was once Lula's lawyer and allege bias. But both campaigns had asked for more time. Lula's team said voters in São Paulo and Bahia could not reach polling stations because of a shortage of buses. Bolsonaro's team cited heavy rain in parts of the south and in São Paulo. Each knew every vote would count. Kássio Nunes Marques, president of the Supreme Electoral Court and an appointee of Jair Bolsonaro, confirmed Lula's win and said the extension did not change the outcome.

Markets reacted badly. The São Paulo stock exchange opened 15% down, triggering a brief suspension before a slight recovery, and interest rate futures rose as investors examined Lula's fiscal plans.

Abroad, the response split along a few lines. US President Donald Trump, who has backed Jair Bolsonaro and who met Flávio at the White House earlier this year, said on Monday: "I didn't take sides, but it looked like another rigged election." He offered no evidence. Other leaders congratulated Lula from across the spectrum: Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum ("The people of Brazil won"), Peru's right-wing Keiko Fujimori, who praised a "democratic day," and the presidents of Chile and Ecuador. Canada's Mark Carney, the EU's Ursula von der Leyen, Spain's Pedro Sánchez, France's Emmanuel Macron and South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa also sent congratulations.

Lula turns 81 on Tuesday. He served two terms from January 2003 to December 2010 and again from January 2023, and is the first Brazilian to win a fourth. The new term begins on 5 January and runs to 2030. He faces a divided country, an opponent who will not concede, and a Congress packed with Bolsonaro allies. His win also runs against a regional trend, as voters in Argentina, Chile and Colombia have put right-wing candidates and parties in power. In his victory speech, responding to Trump's so-called "Donroe Doctrine," he said Brazil "will not accept being anyone's backyard." Watch next for whether Bolsonaro files a formal challenge, and how Lula's fiscal plans meet a hostile Congress.