Lula wins fourth term as Brazil president in historic comeback over Flávio Bolsonaro, who refuses to concede

No first-round runner-up had ever won the runoff. Lula just did.
Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21% after trailing in the first round.
Mark

Lula was behind after round one. How unusual is it that he won?

Mimi

Very. Since the 1980s, nobody who came second in the first round has won the runoff. He's the first.

Mark

What changed between the two votes?

Mimi

Turnout, apparently. Abstention hit a record 21.08% in round one and fell to 19.21%. Lula's voters tend to live farther from polling stations, so they were hit hardest.

Luke

I'd be careful there. The drop in abstention is a measured fact. That it explains the win is the reading of Lula's allies, and the report says he "appears" to have made up the gap that way. Nobody has shown the causation.

Mark

Fair. And Bolsonaro won't concede?

Mimi

He says it's impossible to concede and that his lawyers will seek annulment, citing the two-hour extension of voting to 7pm.

Luke

Worth noting his campaign also asked the electoral court for longer voting hours. He left that out. Also, the annulment request is a stated intention. We don't yet know whether a filing exists or how it would fare.

Mark

Why does the echo of his father matter?

Mimi

Jair Bolsonaro refused to accept defeat four years ago, tried a coup and is serving 27 years. So refusal here carries history.

Luke

But history isn't evidence of what Flávio will do. So far there's a speech, not an action.

  • Lula overturned a first-round deficit to win 51.79% to 48.21%, a result no runner-up had managed since democracy returned in the 1980s.
  • Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede, calling the result 'impossible' to accept and seeking annulment over a two-hour voting extension.
  • Crowds celebrated in São Paulo while anger and bewilderment spread in Brasília, where the Bolsonaro family's shadow still looms over the country.
  • Lula's supporters credit higher turnout, as abstention fell from 21.08% to 19.21% and voters far from polling stations came out.
  • The electoral court's answer to the annulment bid is now the decisive question, and no one yet knows whether the campaign will pursue it.

Brazil's old union organiser, once a poor boy from the backlands, has returned to the presidency for a fourth time, pulling a race back from a first-round deficit that history said could not be overturned. The result arrives as a quiet test of whether a country can absorb a loss without tearing up the rules that decide it. Across the street from his celebrations, the defeated camp's refusal to concede echoes a family pattern that has already cost one Bolsonaro his liberty. What the nation does next, in the courts and in the streets, will show whether the democracy that carried Lula home can also carry the losers gracefully.

Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has won a fourth term, and he did it from behind. At 80, the leftist finished with 51.79% against the far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a margin of 4.4 million votes. Lula had narrowly lost the first round in October, and for about three weeks progressive Brazilians lived in despair. No second-place finisher in the first round has ever won the runoff since democracy returned in the 1980s, and in São Paulo, where Lula watched the count, the streets erupted.

Lula's allies had always believed turnout was his best path, and the numbers bear that out. Abstention, which had hit a record 21.08% in the first round and hurt his voters most because they live farther from polling stations, dropped to 19.21% in the runoff. Speaking to supporters, Lula called the result a defeat for denialism and said democracy had made it happen.

Flávio Bolsonaro did not accept it. As Lula spoke, he said conceding was impossible and that his lawyers would seek annulment, citing a Supreme Court decision to extend voting by two hours. He did not mention that his own campaign had requested the same kind of extension. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, also refused to acknowledge defeat four years ago, attempted a coup, and is now serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest in Brasília, where the son watched the count.

The result is a blow to Donald Trump, whose hopes of a new pro-Trump bloc in Latin America have been dimmed. Other leaders, including Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum and Paraguay's Santiago Peña, praised the Brazilian people's democratic choice. For now, what matters is whether Bolsonaro's team files the challenge and how the electoral court responds.

Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, won a fourth term on Sunday night, and he did it from behind. With every vote counted, the 80-year-old leftist finished with 51.79% to 48.21% for his far-right challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a margin of 4.4 million votes.

The comeback has no precedent. Lula had narrowly lost the first round in early October to Bolsonaro, a result that put his political future in doubt and left progressive Brazilians in about three weeks of despair. Since democracy returned in the 1980s, no candidate who finished second in the first round had ever won the runoff. Lula did, and the news set off celebrations on the streets of São Paulo, where he had followed the count, and at the hotel where he watched it.

His allies had long seen turnout as his best chance, and the numbers suggest it was. The first round had a record abstention rate of 21.08%, which hit Lula's voters hardest because they tend to live farther from polling stations. In the runoff, abstention fell to 19.21%. Speaking to a packed conference hall of supporters in São Paulo, Lula said the election was a "defeat for denialism" and that "it was democracy that made this happen." He promised to change the way the country is governed.

Flávio Bolsonaro did not accept the result. As Lula was giving his victory speech, the senator said it was "impossible to concede" and that his legal team would ask for the election to be annulled. His stated reason was a decision by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin to extend voting by two hours, to 7pm. Bolsonaro called it "not normal" and "unacceptable," and said it amounted to changing the rules of the game while the game was being played. He did not mention that his own campaign had asked the electoral court for an extension of voting hours.

The refusal follows his father's example. Four years ago, former president Jair Bolsonaro also would not acknowledge defeat to Lula, then attempted a coup and was convicted for it. He is now serving a 27-year sentence and lives under house arrest in Brasília, where his son watched the count. Jair Bolsonaro had hoped to be freed and given a role in government if Flávio won. The result was met with anger and bewilderment in the city.

Lula's health minister, Alexandre Padilha, said voters in the second round had weighed what Lula means for the environment, the national health service, education and the constitution, along with the risks of the extreme-right candidate. He called it a signal to the rest of Latin America and the world. Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, wrote "Long live democracy, the people of Brazil won," and Paraguay's president, Santiago Peña, praised the "great democratic journey" of the Brazilian people.

The result is also a blow to Donald Trump, the Bolsonaro family's most important international ally. He had hoped Bolsonaro would join a run of pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile and Javier Milei in Argentina.

The day before the vote, Lula's supporters held two huge rallies: more than a million people on Rio's Copacabana beach, and an even larger crowd marching on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. Many on the streets were angry about an apparent attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to sabotage public transport in Lula-leaning areas. Lucas Lopes, 32, called it another coup attempt by the extreme right. Caio Marques, a 40-year-old photographer from Franca, said the left failed in the first round but "woke up" in the second. Maicon Douglas Bento, 34, said on Paulista Avenue that there was not enough room in his chest for his joy.

Lula turns 81 on Tuesday. His career began with union leadership in São Paulo's industrial suburbs in the late 1970s. Born into rural poverty, he lost presidential bids in 1989, 1994 and 1998 before becoming Brazil's first elected working-class president in 2002. He returned in 2022. What to watch now is whether Bolsonaro's team files the annulment challenge and how the electoral court answers it.

This election was a defeat for denialism... it was democracy that made this happen.
— Lula da Silva, victory speech in São Paulo
It was impossible to concede the election result, and his legal team would seek annulment.
— Flávio Bolsonaro (paraphrased)
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