On a Sunday when Brazilians chose to keep Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the head of their largest nation, the country once again tested whether a democracy can absorb a bitter defeat. Lula, now a fourth-term president at 80, returned to power by a margin of roughly four million votes, yet the son of the jailed former leader Jair Bolsonaro has not yet accepted the verdict of the ballot. The result rippled far beyond Brazil's borders, lifting congratulations from distant capitals while frightening investors who had hoped for a different course, and what happens next will depend less on the count
Lula Wins Brazil's Runoff by 4 Million Votes as Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede; Markets Plunge
Trading halted for thirty minutes as the Ibovespa fell nearly 17%
Mark
Lula won by more than 4 million votes. Why is there still a fight?
Mimi
Because Flavio Bolsonaro is focused on the two-hour voting extension. He says it favored Lula and wants the result annulled.
Luke
Worth noting the extension was ordered after complaints about transport problems, and Bolsonaro's own campaign had asked for more time in some southern areas because of heavy rain. Officials say it did not change the outcome.
Mark
His own party has broken with him.
Mimi
Valdemar Costa Neto said the Liberal Party recognizes the results, though he said issues raised need clarifying. It's a clear split.
Luke
Careful, though. That's a statement of recognition with a caveat, not a repudiation of his claims. And Bolsonaro hasn't responded yet.
Mark
What about the passport order?
Mimi
He says police told him on the street to surrender his passports and that he can't leave Brazil, and he blames Justice de Moraes.
Luke
That is his account, from his own video. Neither the court nor the police had confirmed it. We don't know the legal basis beyond what he says.
Mark
And the markets?
Mimi
The Ibovespa fell nearly 17%, trading halted for 30 minutes, and the dollar rose 12% against the real.
Luke
Those are big moves, but analysts tie them partly to surprise, since prediction markets expected a Bolsonaro win, and partly to uncertainty over whether he concedes. Whether they last is unknown, and the finance minister pick is the next clue.
El Pulso
- Latin America's largest stock exchange froze for thirty minutes as the Ibovespa plunged nearly 17% in a single session.
- The real collapsed twelve percent against the dollar, one of the sharpest daily moves the currency has ever recorded.
- Flavio Bolsonaro refuses to concede, vowing annulment over a two-hour voting extension that electoral officials say changed nothing.
- His own Liberal Party has broken ranks and recognized the result, leaving him more isolated as the race for legitimacy continues.
- Markets now wait on Lula's choice of finance minister, the signal investors hope will restore fiscal confidence.
On a Sunday when Brazilians chose to keep Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the head of their largest nation, the country once again tested whether a democracy can absorb a bitter defeat. Lula, now a fourth-term president at 80, returned to power by a margin of roughly four million votes, yet the son of the jailed former leader Jair Bolsonaro has not yet accepted the verdict of the ballot. The result rippled far beyond Brazil's borders, lifting congratulations from distant capitals while frightening investors who had hoped for a different course, and what happens next will depend less on the count itself than on whether the losing side is willing to let the constitutional process close the chapter.
On Monday morning in Sao Paulo, trading on Latin America's largest exchange was halted for half an hour. The Ibovespa had fallen nearly seventeen percent after Brazilians returned Lula to the presidency, and the circuit breaker, built for moments of violent decline, had done its work.
Lula won with 51.7 percent against 48.2 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of the jailed former president. The margin was just over four million votes. At eighty, Lula takes a fourth term, a historic comeback for a man who had trailed in the first round. In his victory speech he called for tighter rules on big technology platforms, after allegations that Meta had interfered in the race.
The money reacted harshly. The dollar leapt twelve percent against the real, raw sugar slid nearly five percent, and Brazilian equities listed abroad tumbled, with Itau Unibanco down almost thirty percent in premarket trading. Investors had seen Flavio as the candidate most likely to please them, and they were stunned. Analysts in London and elsewhere said the tests ahead are simple: how quickly Bolsonaro accepts the outcome, and whether Lula's next finance minister signals fiscal discipline.
Bolsonaro has not conceded. On election night he said the results were impossible to recognize under the circumstances. He argues that a two-hour extension of voting, ordered by a Supreme Court justice appointed by Lula after complaints about transport irregularities, gave his rival an advantage. His own campaign had asked for extra time in southern strongholds because of heavy rain, a point his critics now raise. Electoral officials insist the extension did not alter the outcome.
On Monday his Liberal Party broke with him, recognizing the results while calling for the issues raised to be clarified. Bolsonaro also said federal police had approached him after visiting his imprisoned father and ordered him to surrender his passport, an act he called intimidation aimed at him by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Neither the court nor the police confirmed it. Flavio said he had no plan to flee and would comply.
Congratulations poured in from Abuja, Dar es Salaam, Victoria, Moscow, and Berlin, where Friedrich Merz looked forward to deepening the strategic partnership. Donald Trump, bound for a midterm rally, called the vote terrible and rigged, but when asked whether he would act, said he was not running Brazil and that he liked Lula very much.
Three questions now hang over Brazil: whether Flavio accepts the result or presses a challenge, whom Lula names to the treasury, and whether the real and the stock market find their footing after a day that shook them.
On Monday morning in Sao Paulo, trading on Latin America's largest stock exchange was halted for thirty minutes. The benchmark Ibovespa index had fallen nearly 17% after Brazilians re-elected President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the exchange triggered its circuit breaker, a mechanism meant for periods of sharp market decline.
Official results from Sunday's runoff gave Lula 51.7% of the vote against 48.2% for Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of the jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro. The margin was slightly more than 4 million votes, and it gives the 80-year-old Lula a fourth term. DW described it as a historic comeback for a candidate who had trailed in the first round. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday. In his victory speech he called for more regulation of big tech platforms, following allegations that Meta interfered in the race.
The market reaction was severe. The US dollar jumped 12% against the real, one of the currency's biggest daily moves on record, and raw sugar, a major Brazilian export, slid nearly 5%. Ahead of the open, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF had dropped as much as 26% in premarket trading. Petrobras shares listed in the US fell more than 20%, and Itau Unibanco fell almost 30%. Investors had viewed Flavio Bolsonaro as the candidate most likely to boost markets, and prediction markets had pointed to his winning. Chris Turner, a strategist at ING in London, told Reuters that what matters now is how quickly Bolsonaro accepts the result, or at least lets the constitution run its course. Graham Stock of RBC BlueBay Asset Management said the key signal would be Lula's commitment to fiscal discipline, beginning with his choice of a new finance minister in the coming weeks.
Bolsonaro has not conceded. On election night he told journalists it was impossible to recognize the results given the circumstances. He has vowed to seek annulment of the runoff, arguing that a two-hour extension of voting favored Lula. The extension was ordered by a Supreme Court justice appointed by Lula after complaints that pro-Bolsonaro mayors were behind public transport irregularities that made it hard for people to reach polling stations. Bolsonaro's own campaign had also asked for more voting time in some regions, his southern strongholds, because of torrential rain. Electoral officials say the extension did not change the outcome.
On Monday, Bolsonaro's own Liberal Party broke with him. Party leader Valdemar Costa Neto said in a statement that the party recognizes the election results, though he added that the issues raised need to be properly clarified. Bolsonaro had not publicly responded.
Bolsonaro also said that federal police approached him on the street after he visited his imprisoned father and ordered him to hand over his passports, and that he is barred from leaving the country. He called it a clear attempt to intimidate him and attributed the order to Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Neither the court nor the federal police immediately confirmed it. He said the decision stemmed from comments by his brother Eduardo, who had suggested he should leave Brazil if he lost. Flavio denied any plan to flee and said he would comply.
Congratulations arrived from around the world. Nigeria's Bola Ahmed Tinubu spoke of economic integration between two leading nations of the Global South, Tanzania's Samia Suluhu praised a longstanding friendship, and Seychelles President Patrick Herminie called the result an affirmation of trust in Lula's leadership. Vladimir Putin sent a telegram praising Lula's personal contribution to the Brazil-Russia partnership; he has worked with Lula across all his terms, starting in 2003. Germany's Friedrich Merz said on X that he looks forward to deepening the strategic partnership, after the two governments met in Hannover in April and agreed to cooperate more closely on defense and raw materials.
Donald Trump, leaving Washington for a midterm campaign rally, said the vote looked terrible to him and like another rigged election, citing how it was tabulated and the strange extension. Asked whether he would do anything about it, he said he was not running Brazil, and added that he likes Lula and gets along with him very well.
Three things now bear watching: whether Flavio Bolsonaro accepts the result or pushes a challenge, whom Lula names as finance minister, and whether the real and Brazilian stocks steady after Monday's record-scale sell-off.
Citas Notables
We recognize the presidential election results, but we believe the issues raised need to be properly clarified.— Valdemar Costa Neto, Liberal Party leader
I'm not running Brazil. I'm running the USA... I like Lula, I get along with him very well.— US President Donald Trump
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