It is not everything Brazil wants, but it is important.
Em meio às tensões comerciais que marcam a era Trump, o Brasil colheu um alívio parcial — mas revelador — quando Washington suspendeu as tarifas de 40% sobre produtos agrícolas brasileiros como carne, café e cacau. O presidente Lula, em São Paulo, agradeceu com cautela e determinação, reconhecendo o gesto sem abrir mão das reivindicações que restam. O episódio ilumina uma verdade antiga das relações entre nações: o comércio raramente é apenas comércio — é também linguagem de poder, memória política e aposta no futuro.
- Desde agosto, tarifas de 40% vinham sufocando exportações brasileiras em setores vitais, empilhadas sobre uma tarifa global de 10% já vigente desde abril — uma pressão que misturava política comercial com interferência explícita na política interna do Brasil.
- A tensão ganhou contornos pessoais quando Trump vinculou as tarifas ao julgamento de Bolsonaro no Supremo, transformando uma disputa econômica em instrumento de pressão diplomática.
- Uma ligação telefônica entre os dois presidentes em outubro abriu uma fresta: Washington anunciou 'progresso inicial' e suspendeu as tarifas sobre agropecuária e alguns minerais, aliviando setores como carne bovina, café, cacau e frutas tropicais.
- Mas maquinário, veículos, aço, químicos, têxteis e calçados permanecem sob a tarifa de 40%, e a declaração de emergência americana continua ativa — com cláusulas que permitem novos ajustes caso o Brasil não atenda às exigências de Washington.
- Lula posicionou-se como negociador paciente e confiante, prometendo agradecer 'completamente' apenas quando tudo estiver acordado, enquanto ministros Haddad e Alckmin esboçam uma visão de integração mais profunda entre as duas economias.
Na quinta-feira, 20 de novembro, Lula apareceu em uma concessionária de automóveis em São Paulo para agradecer — com reservas — a Donald Trump. O governo americano havia acabado de suspender as tarifas de 40% sobre carne bovina, café e cacau brasileiros, produtos que sustentam o núcleo da pauta agrícola do país. "Não é tudo o que o Brasil quer. Não é tudo o que o Brasil precisa", disse Lula em vídeo nas redes sociais. "Mas é importante."
O alívio era real, mas recortado. As tarifas continuavam intactas para maquinário, veículos, autopeças, aço, químicos, têxteis e calçados — setores que vinham sendo penalizados desde agosto, quando Trump impôs as alíquotas mais altas sobre o Brasil, alegando que políticas do governo brasileiro representavam uma ameaça "incomum e extraordinária" aos interesses americanos. A disputa havia ganhado um sabor político inconfundível: Trump defendeu Bolsonaro publicamente e chegou a ameaçar novas elevações tarifárias, ligando explicitamente as medidas ao julgamento do ex-presidente no Supremo Tribunal Federal.
Depois de uma ligação entre os dois líderes em outubro, algo se moveu. Lula não escondeu a ambição de ir além: "Se em duas conversas chegamos até aqui, com mais três ou quatro faremos o Brasil e os Estados Unidos viverem em harmonia, política e comercialmente." Ao seu lado, o ministro Geraldo Alckmin — que assumiria a presidência no dia seguinte, durante a viagem de Lula à África do Sul para o G20 — celebrou o alívio como base para crescimento e emprego. Fernando Haddad falou em "bom senso prevalecendo" e projetou uma integração mais profunda: minerais brasileiros alimentando a produção de baterias, veículos elétricos montados no Brasil.
Mas Washington não deixou espaço para euforia. A declaração de emergência permanece vigente. As tarifas sobre os setores excluídos seguem ativas. E a ordem assinada por Trump inclui cláusulas que permitem novos ajustes caso o Brasil não cumpra as exigências americanas — com múltiplos órgãos federais autorizados a monitorar e recomendar medidas adicionais. A negociação, ficou claro, está longe do fim.
On Thursday, November 20th, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stood in a São Paulo auto showroom and offered a measured thank-you to Donald Trump. The American president had just lifted a 40 percent tariff that had been crushing Brazilian exports of beef, coffee, and cocoa—products that form the backbone of the country's agricultural trade. But Lula's gratitude came with a sharp edge. "It is not everything Brazil wants. It is not everything Brazil needs," he said in a video posted to social media. "But it is important."
The relief was real, but incomplete. The tariff removal applied only to agricultural goods and certain minerals. A vast swath of Brazilian industry remained under the same 40 percent penalty: machinery and farm equipment, vehicles and auto parts, steel and steel products, chemicals, textiles, and footwear. These sectors had been hammered since August 1st, when Trump first imposed the higher duties, layering them on top of a 10 percent global tariff that had already gone into effect in April. The justification, according to the Trump administration, was that Brazilian government policies posed an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to American security and economic interests.
The tariff war had escalated in ways that felt personal. Trump had defended former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and then threatened to raise duties further, claiming Brazil was not "being good" to the United States. When he finally imposed the 40 percent rate, he tied it explicitly to the Supreme Court trial of Bolsonaro—a move that felt less like trade policy and more like political leverage.
Now, after a phone call between the two leaders on October 6th, there was movement. The White House called it "initial progress." Lula called it partial. In his remarks, he positioned himself as a negotiator willing to keep talking. "I will thank you only partially," he told Trump directly. "I will thank you completely when everything has been agreed between us. If in just two conversations we have reached what we reached today, with three or four more conversations we will make Brazil and the United States live in harmony, politically and commercially."
Standing beside him were Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Industry Minister Geraldo Alckmin, whom Lula introduced as his negotiators with Washington. Alckmin, who would assume the presidency the following day while Lula traveled to South Africa for a G20 meeting, framed the tariff relief as a foundation for growth: "advances, employment, development, and more foreign trade." Haddad spoke of "common sense prevailing" and sketched a vision of deeper integration—Brazilian minerals feeding battery production, electric vehicles assembled in Brazil rather than imported.
But the Trump administration left no room for complacency. The emergency declaration remained in place. The 40 percent tariffs on the excluded products stayed active. And the order Trump signed on Thursday contained a clause allowing for new tariff adjustments if the State Department concluded that Brazil was not meeting American demands. Every relevant agency—Treasury, Commerce, Homeland Security, the U.S. Trade Representative, the National Security Council—retained authority to monitor the situation and recommend further measures.
What had been lifted was significant: beef in all its forms, fresh and frozen; tropical fruits like coconut, banana, pineapple, and orange; orange juice; coffee, tea, and spices; cocoa and cocoa products; fertilizer; and a detailed list of minerals and petroleum products. The exclusions covered products that had entered the United States starting November 13th. But for Brazilian manufacturers of vehicles, machinery, textiles, and steel, the pressure remained unrelenting. The negotiation, it was clear, was far from over.
Notable Quotes
If in just two conversations we have reached what we reached today, with three or four more conversations we will make Brazil and the United States live in harmony, politically and commercially.— President Lula da Silva
The tariff removal will bring advances, employment, development, and more foreign trade.— Industry Minister Geraldo Alckmin
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Trump lift tariffs on agricultural products but leave the others in place? What's the logic there?
It's a negotiating tactic. Agriculture is Brazil's most visible export strength—beef, coffee, cocoa are things American consumers recognize and want. By relieving pressure there, Trump signals flexibility while keeping leverage on the sectors that matter more to Brazilian manufacturing and employment. He's showing he can move, but only so far.
And Lula's response—this "partial victory" framing—is that genuine restraint or political theater?
Both. Lula genuinely needs those tariffs off the machinery and steel. But he's also signaling to his own government and Congress that he's in control, that he's negotiating from strength, that more is coming. The "three or four more conversations" line is him saying: this isn't done, and I'm the one driving it.
The emergency declaration staying in place—what does that actually mean for Brazil?
It means Trump can reimpose tariffs or add new ones almost instantly if he decides Brazil isn't cooperating. There's no stability. Every conversation between the two governments happens under the threat of sudden escalation. It's leverage that never goes away.
So why would Haddad talk about "common sense prevailing" when the threat is still hanging over them?
Because the alternative is worse. If you acknowledge the threat openly, you look weak domestically. You have to frame it as progress, as momentum, as the beginning of something better. You have to give your own people and your trading partners confidence that you're moving in the right direction, even if the ground beneath you is still unstable.
What happens next?
More conversations. More negotiation. The question is whether Trump uses the remaining tariffs to extract concessions on other issues—maybe security, maybe immigration, maybe something else entirely. For Brazil, it's about trying to get those manufacturing tariffs lifted before they cause real damage to employment and investment.