Lula boosts welfare ahead of tight Brazil election, drawing accusations of vote-buying

Two weeks before Brazil's presidential election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a 15% increase in the country's main welfare programme for poor families, along with a promise of free weight-loss injections through the public health system. The move has ignited accusations of electoral manipulation from his opponents, who see it as a calculated bid to shore up support in what polls suggest is shaping up to be one of the closest presidential races Latin America has ever seen.

Lula will face far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, on October 4. Recent polling has shown Bolsonaro gaining ground, though the most recent survey still gave Lula a narrow numerical edge. The monthly payment from Bolsa Família, the flagship cash-transfer programme created during Lula's first term in 2003, will rise from roughly £98 to £113. The increase takes effect on October 19, just days before the expected runoff vote on October 25. Between 15% and 20% of voters stand to benefit directly from the higher payments.

The programme currently reaches about 50 million people, of whom roughly 27 million are of voting age and eligible to cast ballots. Families with an income of up to £32 per person qualify for assistance. Lula framed the increase as a necessary adjustment to protect purchasing power against inflation, not a new benefit. His opponents rejected that characterisation entirely. Flávio Bolsonaro called it an "act of desperation" and accused Lula of attempting to "buy the votes of the poor."

The timing has drawn inevitable comparisons to 2022, when Bolsonaro announced a 50% increase in the same programme just before his own election bid. Lula's campaign had filed a complaint with the electoral court then, alleging abuse of state machinery for electoral purposes. Now the roles are reversed, and the question of whether Lula is repeating Bolsonaro's playbook has divided observers and analysts.

Journalist Miriam Leitão, writing in O Globo, acknowledged that both presidents acted with electoral interest in mind, but argued the cases differ in substance. Lula's increase is permanent and limited to inflation adjustments that had accumulated over four years without any prior correction. Bolsonaro's 2022 increase, by contrast, carried an expiry date timed precisely to the end of the electoral period. Victor Escobar, a researcher at the Laboratory of Parties, Elections and Comparative Politics, made a similar distinction. He noted that while Lula faces criticism for unveiling benefits on the eve of an election, Bolsonaro's 2022 package was "even more irresponsible from a budgetary point of view."

Bolsonaro had not merely increased welfare payments but introduced temporary monthly payments of up to £727 for taxi drivers and truck drivers—groups that formed part of his political base—along with a series of other social benefits. The projected budgetary impact was so severe that critics dubbed the entire package "kamikaze" spending. Escobar acknowledged that Lula's intention is also electoral, but argued that as long as the measures comply with electoral law, such moves are "entirely expected when we're talking about an incumbent running for re-election, who will try to use the legal mechanisms available to improve their voting numbers."

Electoral law experts have said that inflation adjustments are not inherently prohibited under Brazilian law. Still, far-right influencer and candidate Renan Santos filed a case with the electoral court seeking to suspend the increase until after the winner takes office. Flávio Bolsonaro, despite his public criticism, has not filed a similar challenge—reportedly because advisers fear the political cost among voters who depend on the programme. The election will test whether the distinction between an inflation adjustment and electoral manipulation holds weight with Brazilian voters.