Lula counts on Senate chief Alcolumbre to block immunity PEC and amnesty bill

Brazil's government has shifted its battle to the Senate after suffering a stinging defeat in the Chamber of Deputies. The immediate trigger was a vote on accelerated consideration of an amnesty bill that would reduce sentences for those convicted in the January 8th coup attempt—a measure widely understood as a pathway to freeing former president Jair Bolsonaro from his 27-year prison sentence handed down by the Supreme Court. When the Chamber approved fast-tracking the amnesty proposal, President Lula's administration pivoted to leverage Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, betting that street protests and political pressure could persuade the upper chamber to block both the amnesty and a companion constitutional amendment known colloquially as the "PEC da Bandidagem"—the "Banditry Amendment."

The constitutional amendment in question would fundamentally reshape congressional accountability. It would prevent criminal investigations into lawmakers without explicit Congressional authorization, effectively shielding deputies and senators from prosecution in cases involving misappropriated budget amendments and other financial crimes. The government's strategy, coordinated directly with Alcolumbre, hinges on the argument that public resistance—demonstrated by protests featuring artists like Caetano Veloso, Chico Buarque, and Gilberto Gil—makes passage politically impossible. The Planalto has mobilized celebrities and influencers to sustain pressure against what it frames as parliamentary privilege and Bolsonaro clemency.

The government's position has fractured its own coalition. Twelve of fifty-one PT deputies voted for the constitutional amendment in the Chamber, arguing they needed to strike a deal with the centrist bloc to block the amnesty while securing popular measures like free electricity for poor families. The defection opened a crisis within the party, particularly galling since eight PT votes in the second round had enabled the centrist coalition to resurrect secret balloting—a mechanism designed to shield lawmakers from scrutiny. PT President Edinho Silva has argued that voting to reduce sentences now amounts to endorsing grave crimes, pointing to an alleged assassination plot against Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

Alcolumbre holds extraordinary leverage. The União Brasil party, his political home, issued an ultimatum requiring all members to leave government positions or face expulsion, effectively consolidating his power as Lula's primary interlocutor with the centrist bloc. He has appointees throughout the executive branch, state enterprises, and regulatory agencies. Yet Alcolumbre himself has grown visibly frustrated with the legislative gridlock, complaining in a Wednesday session that Congress faces simultaneous obstruction threats and competing demands over judicial matters, impeachment proceedings, and amnesty questions. "It's become impossible to navigate situations like this," he said. "We're being run over by the same conversation since the last election."

The government has grown disappointed with Chamber President Hugo Motta, viewing him as susceptible to centrist pressure and prone to reversing agreements. Lula's allies cite two recent cases: the fast-tracked amnesty vote and the elimination of a financial transaction tax. Motta denies these were formal accords. The amnesty bill's designated rapporteur, deputy Paulo Pereira da Silva of the Solidariedade party, has stated there will be no blanket amnesty for coup plotters, only sentence reductions aimed at "pacifying the country." He has explicitly rejected any measure designed to free Bolsonaro, saying he will not produce legislation that defies the Supreme Court.

The amnesty proposal—now called the "Dosimetry Bill" because it concerns sentence length—has been vetted by former president Michel Temer, Supreme Court justices, Motta, and senior deputies including Arthur Lira and Aécio Neves. Legal experts aligned with the PT have denounced it as absurd. Marco Aurélio de Carvalho, coordinator of Prerrogativas, a lawyers' group close to the party, called it "an affront" and "legal aberration," sardonically describing it as "amnesty with Botox." He noted that judges, not legislators, determine sentences under Brazilian law, making the legislative intervention inherently illegitimate.

Lula himself has sent mixed signals. At a Wednesday lunch with PDT parliamentarians, he expressed openness to a centrist deal reducing sentences provided Bolsonaro remained excluded. He invoked his own experience: 580 days in prison between April 2018 and November 2019. The comment infuriated PT members, who see any sentence reduction as a backdoor amnesty for the coup attempt. Meanwhile, PL President Valdemar Costa Neto has rejected any partial measures, threatening legislative obstruction if a full amnesty fails. He warned that Alcolumbre "works for the Supreme Court, not the Senate," and predicted the Senate president could lose reelection support in 2027 if he blocks the amnesty. The standoff now moves to the Senate, where Alcolumbre's next move will determine whether Brazil's political crisis deepens or finds temporary resolution.