In a nation where nearly 400 women were killed in a single quarter — the darkest such figure in eleven years of record-keeping — Brazil's two dominant presidential rivals have each concluded that the same wound must be their opening argument. Lula, the aging incumbent shaped by decades of labor struggle, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator carrying his father's political inheritance, launched their campaigns in their respective strongholds this August, both reaching toward the same majority: the women who comprise more than half of Brazil's electorate. It is a moment that reveals something endur
Lula and Bolsonaro Launch Presidential Campaigns, Both Target Women Voters on Gender Violence
Brazil registered nearly 400 femicides in the first quarter of 2026, the highest number for the period since tracking began 11 years ago.
Men need to learn they are no better than women
Mark
Why does femicide matter so much in this election specifically? It's a crisis, yes, but why now?
Mimi
Because the numbers just hit a wall. Nearly 400 women killed in one quarter—the worst on record in eleven years of tracking. Women voters see that and they see two men asking for their support. They want to know: can you stop this?
Mark
But Lula has been president before. Why hasn't he stopped it?
Mimi
That's the harder question. He's pointing to the 2024 law that made femicide its own crime. But the killing accelerated anyway. So now he's saying he needs more time, more tools, more education. It's a gamble—admitting the problem is worse than his previous efforts addressed.
Mark
And Bolsonaro? He's the challenger here, so he can promise anything.
Mimi
Exactly. He shows up with his mother and wife, says he'll fight it too, but offers almost no detail. He's betting that voters will focus on other issues—trade, foreign relations, his connections to Trump and Netanyahu.
Mark
Is that working?
Mimi
We won't know until October. But the fact that both men felt compelled to make gender violence central to their opening rallies tells you something: they both know they can't win without women, and they both know women are angry.
Mark
What happens if the femicide numbers don't drop after the election?
Mimi
Then whoever wins will face immediate pressure to deliver. The crisis is too visible, too documented, too undeniable to ignore.
El Pulso
- Brazil's femicide rate has reached its worst quarterly level in eleven years, with nearly 400 women killed in the first three months of 2026 alone — a crisis that legal reforms, including a 2024 law making femicide its own crime with sentences up to 40 years, have so far failed to slow.
- Women represent 53 percent of Brazil's 158 million eligible voters, and both campaigns have made the strategic calculation that this majority cannot be won without directly confronting gender violence.
- Lula issued a stark ultimatum to male supporters at his São Paulo rally — choose him or choose violence — and promised a comprehensive gender-responsive policy platform within ten days, framing equality as a moral imperative learned from childhood.
- Bolsonaro's Copacabana rally drew international heavyweights including Argentina's Milei and signals of support from Netanyahu and the Trump administration, positioning the campaign as a gateway to favorable deals with Washington, Beijing, and Tel Aviv.
- The two campaigns are sharply divided on trade and sovereignty — Lula accused the United States of interference through tariff pressure, while Bolsonaro argued only he can negotiate effectively with global powers — but both converge on the language of protecting women.
- With the October 4 vote approaching, the contest is settling into a test of credibility: which candidate can persuade Brazil's female majority that his promises will translate into lives actually saved.
In a nation where nearly 400 women were killed in a single quarter — the darkest such figure in eleven years of record-keeping — Brazil's two dominant presidential rivals have each concluded that the same wound must be their opening argument. Lula, the aging incumbent shaped by decades of labor struggle, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator carrying his father's political inheritance, launched their campaigns in their respective strongholds this August, both reaching toward the same majority: the women who comprise more than half of Brazil's electorate. It is a moment that reveals something enduring about democratic politics — that crises of human suffering, when large enough, eventually compel even the most ideologically opposed forces to face the same reckoning.
Two men who have defined Brazil's recent political era stepped into their strongholds this August to begin competing for the presidency — and both made the same calculation about where the election will be decided.
Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, addressed more than 10,000 supporters at Vila Euclides Stadium outside São Paulo — the city where he rose four decades ago as a metalworkers' union organizer under military dictatorship. Wearing a hat that marked a recent skin cancer diagnosis, he spoke with the weight of accumulated history. On Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro, thousands gathered for Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest following his conviction for attempting to overturn an election. Argentina's President Javier Milei attended the rally, and both Netanyahu and members of the Trump administration had signaled their support.
The campaigns staked out opposing ground on trade and foreign relations. Lula accused the United States of trying to boost Bolsonaro through tariff threats, and declared defiantly that Brazil's rare mineral reserves would serve its own people first. Bolsonaro countered that only he could negotiate favorable terms with Washington, Beijing, and other capitals.
But both men recognized where the real contest would be decided. Women comprise nearly 53 percent of Brazil's 158 million eligible voters, and a single statistic has forced its way into both campaigns: Brazil recorded nearly 400 femicides in the first quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total in the eleven years the country has tracked the crime. A 2024 legal reform finally classified femicide as its own offense, carrying sentences of 20 to 40 years — yet the killing has not slowed.
Lula made the issue the moral center of his campaign. Standing beside First Lady Rosangela da Silva, he addressed the men in the crowd directly: men must learn from childhood that they are no better than women. He had already issued an ultimatum at his party's convention — supporters must choose him or choose violence. He promised a comprehensive gender-responsive policy platform within ten days. Bolsonaro, flanked by his mother and wife, made similar pledges, though with fewer specifics.
Brazilians vote on October 4. Both campaigns understand that the women who form the majority of the electorate are watching not just what is promised, but whether anyone can actually stop the killing.
Two men who have shaped Brazil's recent political history stepped into their strongholds this month to begin competing for the presidency, and both made the same calculation: women voters, who make up just over half the electorate, are watching how they respond to a crisis of violence that has only worsened.
Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent seeking his fourth nonconsecutive term, addressed more than 10,000 supporters at Vila Euclides Stadium outside São Paulo on a Sunday in August. He wore a hat—a visible reminder of a recent skin cancer diagnosis—and spoke with the weight of history. This was the city where he had risen four decades earlier as a metalworkers' union organizer during Brazil's military dictatorship. The message was familiar: Brazil needs more of what he has already delivered.
Meanwhile, on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro, thousands gathered for Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro, currently under house arrest following his conviction for attempting to overturn an election, did not appear. But the rally drew international attention: Argentina's President Javier Milei attended, and both Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Trump administration had signaled their support for the younger Bolsonaro's bid.
The two campaigns staked out different ground on trade and foreign relations. Lula warned against what he called foreign interference, specifically accusing the United States of trying to boost Bolsonaro through tariff threats and diplomatic pressure. He spoke defiantly about Brazil's rare mineral reserves: "No one abroad will tap our minerals. We are going to tap them for the benefit of the Brazilian people." Bolsonaro countered that he alone could negotiate effectively with Washington, Beijing, Tel Aviv, and other capitals to secure better deals.
But both men recognized where the real contest would be decided. Women comprise nearly 53 percent of Brazil's 158 million eligible voters. And both campaigns have seized on a statistic that demands attention: Brazil recorded nearly 400 femicides in the first quarter of 2026—the highest quarterly total in the eleven years the country has been tracking the crime. The trend has not slowed despite legal reforms. In 2024, femicide finally became its own crime, carrying sentences of 20 to 40 years, rather than being classified as an aggravated homicide. The change has not stopped the killing.
Lula made the issue central to his campaign message. Standing beside First Lady Rosangela da Silva at the São Paulo rally, he spoke directly to the men in the crowd: "Men need to learn from childhood that they are no better than women. We need to be equal." Earlier, during his party's convention in August, he had issued an ultimatum to male supporters: choose him or choose violence. "If they choose violence," he said, "they don't need to vote for me." He promised to unveil a comprehensive gender-responsive policy platform within ten days, including education initiatives and new laws to prosecute and prevent violence against women.
Bolsonaro, flanked by his mother and wife, made similar promises. He too pledged to fight violence against women, though he offered fewer specifics about how.
Brazilians will vote on October 4. The election is expected to be fierce, and both campaigns understand that the women who make up the majority of the electorate are watching not just what the candidates say, but whether they can actually stop the killing.
Citas Notables
Men need to learn from childhood that they are no better than women. We need to be equal.— Lula, at campaign rally in São Paulo
No one abroad will tap our minerals. We are going to tap them for the benefit of the Brazilian people.— Lula, on Brazil's rare mineral reserves
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Politics & Governance