Lula and Bolsonaro close campaigns as Brazil's tightening race heads to likely runoff

Brazil's presidential race tightened dramatically in its final stretch, with two candidates separated by shrinking margins and a runoff almost certain. On Saturday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, closed his re-election campaign with a march through São Paulo that his team described as a record-breaking closing rally. He told supporters he expected victory on Sunday, framing the election as a choice between "democracy and barbarism" and pledging to "defeat the far right." He also cast the vote as a test of Brazil's sovereignty, warning against interference from Washington.

His opponent, 45-year-old Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, campaigned through São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro with a motorcycle caravan echoing his father's style, then held a rally where he expressed confidence in a first-round win. Flavio is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. The younger Bolsonaro was photographed at his rally holding a portrait of his imprisoned father. The elder Bolsonaro remains a close ally of US President Donald Trump, and though Trump has not formally endorsed his son, he has said he is watching the election "very closely"—a level of American attention that has become a flashpoint in the campaign.

Lula's team has weaponized this scrutiny, arguing it proves Washington is attempting to meddle in Brazil's affairs. Some Bolsonaro supporters, frustrated by the cost of living, have countered that they would welcome US pressure if it prompted domestic change. The framing reveals how deeply the election has become entangled with questions of national independence and foreign influence.

Polls released Saturday showed Lula still ahead but his advantage eroding. Neither candidate appeared likely to secure an outright victory on Sunday, which would force a runoff on October 25 between the two frontrunners—a contest that polls also suggest will be close. This represents a dramatic tightening from 2022, when Lula defeated the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points in what was already considered a narrow victory.

The Bolsonaro campaign has faced mounting scrutiny over a film-financing scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for his role in bankrolling a biopic about his father called Dark Horse. The financing came from a jailed banker connected to one of Brazil's largest financial scandals. Additionally, Brazil's Supreme Court authorized federal police in April to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula.

Flavio has pledged to seek his father's release from prison if elected. He has also echoed his father's unsubstantiated claims questioning the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system—assertions that analysts suggest could be laying groundwork to contest the election result if he loses. The strategy mirrors tactics used in other democracies to undermine confidence in electoral integrity before votes are even cast.

Beyond the presidency, Brazil's nearly 160 million registered voters will also choose lawmakers, governors, and senators on Sunday. The election will reshape not just the executive branch but the composition of Congress and state governments across the country. With a runoff likely and both campaigns claiming confidence despite tightening numbers, Brazil faces weeks of sustained political intensity ahead.